Latest Updates

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper about the Iranian president’s sudden death and the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s arrest warrants requests for Israeli and Hamas leaders.

A helicopter crash on 19 May killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who many had thought was the likely successor to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the implications of Raisi’s sudden demise.

Tehran has concluded that a regional reordering is underway. The death of the president and foreign minister won’t change that.

While continuity in foreign policy is likely, tension between state and society
could be further exacerbated by competition within the conservative camp.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza. 

Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation. 

Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.

An isolated leader who faced widespread criticism a week ago now has the backing of the West and has deflected global attention from Gaza.

Iran and Israel are trading threats and counter-threats following the 1 April strike, attributed to Israel, on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It is imperative that both sides avoid further escalation – or an all-out Middle East conflagration could result.

Turnout in Iran’s national polls was historically low, marking the third vote in a row in which most people stayed away. In parallel, conservatives tightened their hold on the Islamic Republic’s institutions. The two trends together highlight the growing gap between state and society.