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Iran: Death of a President

A helicopter crash on 19 May killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who many had thought was the likely successor to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the implications of Raisi’s sudden demise.

Also available in العربية

Why Iran Believes It’s Winning Against Israel

Tehran has concluded that a regional reordering is underway. The death of the president and foreign minister won’t change that.

Iran: Consequences of the vacant presidency

While continuity in foreign policy is likely, tension between state and society
could be further exacerbated by competition within the conservative camp.

Out of the Shadows: Exchanges of Fire Between Iran and Israel

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza. 

The Israel-Iran Crisis: A Chance to Step Back from the Brink

Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation. 

Also available in العربية

The Middle East Could Still Explode

Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.

Why Israel-Iran War Is a Lifeline for Netanyahu

An isolated leader who faced widespread criticism a week ago now has the backing of the West and has deflected global attention from Gaza.

Alert

Iran-Israel “Shadow War” Risks Spinning Out of Control

Iran and Israel are trading threats and counter-threats following the 1 April strike, attributed to Israel, on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It is imperative that both sides avoid further escalation – or an all-out Middle East conflagration could result.

Also available in العربية

Closing Circles: Iran’s Exclusionary 2024 Elections

Turnout in Iran’s national polls was historically low, marking the third vote in a row in which most people stayed away. In parallel, conservatives tightened their hold on the Islamic Republic’s institutions. The two trends together highlight the growing gap between state and society. 

Also available in العربية

Why the War in Gaza Makes a Nuclear Iran More Likely

The Conflict Has Empowered Tehran—but Also Fueled Its Sense of Vulnerability

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