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South Sudan

Since fighting erupted in Juba in July 2016 and a major rebel faction returned to war, rebel groups have proliferated though conflict is much reduced from its height in 2014. The government’s current strategy can secure Juba but cannot deliver sustainable nationwide peace. Of the millions experiencing hunger due to the conflict’s impact on civilians, the UN declared 100,000 in famine conditions for several months in 2017. Through field-based research and engagement with relevant national, regional and international actors, Crisis Group aims to support humanitarian access and build a new consensus around sustainable peace efforts that address the regionalised nature of the conflict as well as its localised dynamics.

CrisisWatch South Sudan

Unchanged Situation

Conflict Risk Alert

Amid overall continued de-escalation, govt forces pursued offensive against rebels in south, raising risk of more intense fighting in March. Govt forces continued offensive launched mid-Jan in Yei River and Amadi states, Equatoria region against rebel group National Salvation Front (NAS) led by Thomas Cirillo, which did not sign Sept 2018 peace deal. Fighting reported to have displaced thousands and govt forces accused of brutality against civilians. EU 18 Feb condemned violation of Dec 2017 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) and of Sept 2018 peace deal, and called on all parties to immediately cease hostilities and step up efforts to come to political solution. IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan Ismail Wais 25 Feb met NAS leader Thomas Cirillo and 26 Feb met leader of non-signatory opposition group People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) Hakim Dario in bid to halt violence. Acts of intercommunal violence and banditry continued across rural areas: armed group in Lon Mawei area of Tonj state in centre-west 7 Feb reportedly killed four herders, cattle raids in Eastern Lakes state in centre 8 Feb left eight people dead and raids 10-11 Feb in Padiek county, Bieh state in north east killed two. Pilot project to canton govt forces and rebels and train 3,000-strong joint unit in Yei River state in south agreed in Jan stalled for lack of funding.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Mar 2019
The [South Sudan] peace agreement is stalling and is at risk of collapse if more political deals aren’t struck. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
21 Feb 2019
In South Sudan, manpower is political power. Politicians use peace deals to grow their own armed ranks. AP

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
19 Dec 2018
This is a critical moment for IGAD and the peace process. The response to these early violations will set the tone for the rest of the peace implementation. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
29 Nov 2018
Washington was never willing to take a hard line with Uganda on South Sudan. This was the biggest missed opportunity to halt the war early. Washington Post

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
27 Jun 2018
If talks do not progress in the coming days, the parties may feel less compelled to adhere to a ceasefire [in South Sudan]. There are command and control issues as well as many forces that are not aligned to the government or Machar’s group. Even an effective ceasefire would only reduce some of the violence. Journal du Cameroun

Casie Copeland

Former Senior Analyst
22 Dec 2017
[South Sudan's] government raised issues with the fact that the [cessation of hostilities] agreement wouldn’t have allowed them to re-arm for any other purposes, such as domestic law and order. Voice of America

Casie Copeland

Former Senior Analyst

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

South Sudan: Peace on Paper

15 December 2018 marks the fifth anniversary of South Sudan's civil war. To ensure that September’s peace agreement does not meet the fate of previous failed attempts at peace, a broader political settlement that shares power across the country’s groups and regions is needed.

Statement / Africa

Improving Prospects for Peace in South Sudan at the African Union Summit

Talks between President Salva Kiir and former First Vice President Riek Machar in the Sudanese capital Khartoum offer the only, albeit slim, hope of a breakthrough in South Sudan’s brutal civil war. African leaders should offer cautious support during the Nouakchott AU summit.

Video / Africa

Video: The Humanitarian Crisis in South Sudan

Five years into South Sudan’s civil war more than half of the population is either displace or starving. In this interview, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for the Horn of Africa Casie Copeland talks about the enormous humanitarian toll of the crisis.

Commentary / Africa

Keeping the Hotline Open Between Sudan and South Sudan

A UN mission has largely succeeded in keeping the peace in Abyei, an oil-rich area claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan. But there has been less progress made on the mission's work in aiding political mechanisms to determine the final status of Abyei and demilitarise and demarcate the border. As the UN Security Council debates the mission's scope, these mechanisms deserve ongoing support.

Briefing / Africa

Seven Priorities for the African Union in 2018

In 2018, the African Union (AU) and its new Assembly Chairperson President Paul Kagame of Rwanda have the chance to push ahead with much-needed institutional reforms. But the AU must not lose focus on dire conflicts and defusing potential electoral violence.

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Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan