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President Yoweri Museveni’s growing authoritarianism and the country’s weak institutions are multiplying Uganda’s challenges. Conflict risks at the local level are rising due to uncertain political succession, economic stagnation, a youth bulge and an influx of refugees from South Sudan. The state’s repression of political opposition and its increasing reliance on security responses to political problems is fostering discontent in politically and economically marginalised communities. Through field research in Kampala and conflict-affected areas, Crisis Group works to reduce the likelihood of local tensions escalating into violence. We indicate how Ugandan policymakers can embark on a process of democratic transition in order to reduce the risk of discontent turning into political instability, protest and violence.

CrisisWatch Uganda

Unchanged Situation

In latest high-profile killing, unidentified attackers shot dead MP Ibrahim Abiriga and his bodyguard in capital Kampala 8 June, sparking public anger at govt and security forces; residents of Abiriga’s Arua municipality accused govt of complicity. In Arua, crowds of mourners 10 June seized Abiriga’s coffin from funeral car and vandalised tents and chairs for vigil; security forces dispersed crowds with teargas and live ammunition. President Museveni 10 June condemned murder and framed it as attack on ruling party. Military arrested General Kale Kayihura, Inspector General of Police (IGP) from 2005 till his sacking in March, and four senior police officers 13 June and some 40 others in following days; charges as yet undisclosed but arrests reportedly in connection with organised crime and 2017 killing of assistant IGP Andrew Felix Kaweesi.

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Reports & Briefings

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Op-Ed / Africa

Bit by Bit, Uganda Is Laying the Groundwork for Future Unrest

Economically and politically, Uganda's government’s actions are leading to growing frustrations and lawlessness.

Originally published in African Arguments

Op-Ed / Africa

It’s in Uganda’s Interest to Keep Supporting South Sudan Peace Efforts

President Museveni will naturally defend Uganda’s short-term interests, but he should also work towards longer-term stability by supporting President Salva Kiir’s pledge to bring peace through ARCSS implementation, negotiations and national dialogue.

Originally published in Daily Monitor

Op-Ed / Africa

Uganda: An Opposition is Born

Originally published in The Africa Report