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President Yoweri Museveni’s growing authoritarianism and the country’s weak institutions are multiplying Uganda’s challenges. Conflict risks at the local level are rising due to uncertain political succession, economic stagnation, a youth bulge and an influx of refugees from South Sudan. The state’s repression of political opposition and its increasing reliance on security responses to political problems is fostering discontent in politically and economically marginalised communities. Through field research in Kampala and conflict-affected areas, Crisis Group works to reduce the likelihood of local tensions escalating into violence. We indicate how Ugandan policymakers can embark on a process of democratic transition in order to reduce the risk of discontent turning into political instability, protest and violence.

CrisisWatch Uganda

Unchanged Situation

Parliamentary spokesman 2 Jan said President Museveni had 27 Dec signed bill (passed by parliament 20 Dec) which removes presidential age limit, allowing him to run for sixth term in 2021. After opposition protests in parliament, Constitutional Court 3 Jan said it would review parliamentary speaker’s conduct during debates on bill, including decision to suspend six opposition MPs. Opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) leader Kizza Besigye 11 Jan announced “Tubalemese” campaign, involving formation of alternative “people’s government” and boycott of companies owned by members of ruling National Resistance Movement. Following attack by suspected members of Ugandan armed group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in DRC 7 Dec that killed some fourteen Tanzanian peacekeepers and Ugandan military’s strikes on ADF bases late Dec, Museveni 14 Jan convened meeting of East African defence and military intelligence chiefs and representatives from DRC and South Africa to discuss ADF threat.

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Op-Ed / Africa

Bit by Bit, Uganda Is Laying the Groundwork for Future Unrest

Economically and politically, Uganda's government’s actions are leading to growing frustrations and lawlessness.

Originally published in African Arguments

Op-Ed / Africa

It’s in Uganda’s Interest to Keep Supporting South Sudan Peace Efforts

President Museveni will naturally defend Uganda’s short-term interests, but he should also work towards longer-term stability by supporting President Salva Kiir’s pledge to bring peace through ARCSS implementation, negotiations and national dialogue.

Originally published in Daily Monitor

Op-Ed / Africa

Uganda: An Opposition is Born

Originally published in The Africa Report