CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standbys") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
December saw fighting worsen between rival forces in Libya, including over oil facilities, which could escalate in January and upset the precarious political and economic balance. Turkey’s security deteriorated further following a series of violent attacks on civilians and security forces, including a twin bombing in Istanbul, claimed by an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara responded by intensifying its crackdown on alleged PKK supporters. In Russia’s North Caucasus, Islamic State (IS)-affiliated militants and police were killed in clashes in the Chechen capital, while in Burkina Faso a deadly attack on security forces reflected worsening insecurity in the north. In Macedonia and Gambia, elections led to heightened political tensions. In East Asia, Pyongyang’s announcement that preparations are at an advanced stage for an inter-continental ballistic missile test-launch deepened international concern over North Korea’s weapons and nuclear programs.
In Libya, fighting between Misratan-led forces, nominally loyal to the internationally recognised Presidency Council (PC), and forces loyal to eastern strongman General Haftar escalated throughout December, risking worse clashes around Sirte, Jufra or Tripoli in January. In early December Misratan-led forces took full control of Sirte from IS, but rifts over governance of the city quickly emerged between the PC-supported city council, Misratan militias and the east-based government. Moving west towards Tripoli, factions loyal to Haftar took control of a military base from Misratan forces in Brak Shati, 200km south of Sirte and anti-Haftar forces launched unsuccessful offensives to retake control of oil export terminals. As we warned mid-December, new fighting over oil facilities threatens “a dangerous economic meltdown”. Beyond security assistance, international actors must urgently prevent any further escalation in the Gulf of Sirte, and help stabilise the economy.
In Turkey, the conflict between the state and PKK militants deepened further. PKK affiliate Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) claimed responsibility for twin bomb attacks in central Istanbul on 10 December, which killed 36 police and eight civilians. After the attack counter-terrorism police detained more than 900 people on charges of PKK membership and terrorist propaganda, some for posts on social media, and the government intensified its crackdown on Kurdish political representatives. TAK also claimed a suicide attack on a bus carrying off-duty soldiers in Central Anatolia on 17 December, killing fourteen. In another incident in Istanbul, an IS-claimed attack left at least 39 dead, including 24 foreign nationals, during New Year celebrations.
In Russia’s North Caucasus, the Chechen capital Grozny also faced deadly IS-claimed attacks which left the city virtually paralysed on 17-18 December. Crisis Group has previously warned of the threat of IS in the North Caucasus and the need for Russia to develop a de-radicalisation strategy and address unresolved grievances. In Burkina Faso, some 40 unidentified gunmen attacked a military and gendarmerie post close to the Malian border, killing twelve. The assault is the deadliest against security forces since suspected jihadist and criminal networks thought to be based in Mali began making incursions in the north in the last year.
Political tensions spiked in Gambia and Macedonia following elections. President Jammeh of Gambia initially conceded defeat after losing the 1 December presidential poll to Adama Barrow, but later refused to step down and called for a new vote. The ECOWAS regional bloc said it could deploy forces to the country if he does not leave office by 19 January when his mandate ends. A close result in Macedonia’s snap elections on 11 December, which were meant to help bring an end to the country’s two-year political crisis, saw neither of the two main parties win an outright majority of seats in parliament, leading to increasingly harsh rhetoric amid uncertainty over who will form the new government.
Concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program and weapons capabilities mounted after Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s address announced that preparations were in their “last stage” to test-launch an inter-continental ballistic missile. This comes as the region has seen a creeping escalation in recent months over the East China Sea between China and Japan, with both taking steps to project their assertiveness, and the emergence of new tensions between China and the U.S. over apparent moves by U.S. President-elect Trump to challenge the decades-old One China policy, including by talking to Taiwan’s political leadership.
Ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) 2 Dec said President dos Santos will not be party’s candidate in 2017 elections. Separatist rebel Front for the Liberation of Cabinda Enclave (FLEC) claimed to have killed six soldiers 5 Dec in clashes in Mbongozi-Muno village near Buco-Zau.
Suspected jihadist and criminal activity worsened in Sahel region bordering Mali and Niger. In deadliest attack yet against Burkinabè security forces, about 40 unidentified gunmen 16 Dec attacked military and gendarmerie position in Nassoumbou, killing twelve soldiers. Military 30 Dec killed suspect in Déou. Alleged bandits 3 Dec killed two people in Soboulé. Gendarmes same day killed one person trying to enter gendarmerie station in Koudougou, Centre-West region. President Kaboré 28 Dec replaced army chief of staff Pingrénoma Zagré with former inspector general of armed forces Col-Maj. Sadou Oumarou. Koglweogo civilian self-defence group general assembly 3 Dec rejected integration into community police.
Three army officers arrested 1 Dec for attempted assassination of presidential adviser Willy Nyamitwe 28 Nov. Inter-Burundian dialogue mediator, former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa, visited Bujumbura 7-9 Dec to restart talks, 9 Dec said legitimacy of President Nkurunziza should no longer be questioned; main opposition coalition CNARED (National Council for the Respect of the Arusha Agreement, Restoration of the Rule of Law) 12 Dec said it no longer recognised Mkapa as mediator. Soldiers pursued National Forces of Liberation (FNL) rebels in DRC and clashed with Congolese army in S Kivu 21 Dec, at least five Burundian soldiers killed, army denied incident (see DRC). Tensions between govt and Belgium and other European countries rose: after Belgian senate held conference raising human rights abuses in Burundi, govt 8 Dec recalled ambassador to Belgium; accused ambassadors of Belgium, Germany, France, Netherlands and EU of boycotting govt after they failed to attend meeting on development assistance 13 Dec; police 15 Dec searched homes in expatriate neighbourhood in Kabondo, Bujumbura. UN inquiry 5 Dec accused 25 Burundian peacekeepers of sexual abuse in Central African Republic in 2014-2015. Nkurunziza late Dec said govt would sue African Union over unpaid wages for Burundi AMISOM contingent; EU suspended payments in March.
Boko Haram continued attacks against security forces and civilians in Far North at lower rate: militants attacked army in Djbrili, Mayo-Moskota district 12 Dec; killed two civilians in Grea, Kolofata district 14 Dec and two others in Bame, Kolofata district 28 Dec; suicide bombing killed two civilians in Mora 25 Dec. Following violent protests against perceived govt marginalisation of minority English-speakers in Nov, police 8 Dec fired on English-speaking protesters trying to block ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) rally in Bamenda, capital of Anglophone North West region, killing at least four; protesters burnt police station.
Following clashes late Nov around Bria, Haute-Kotto prefecture (east), rival ex-Seleka factions Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) and Popular Front for the Central African Renaissance (FPRC) clashed again early Dec in Bakala and close to Bambari, Ouaka prefecture (centre). Attack 27 Dec on displaced persons camps in Batangafo, Ouham prefecture burned over 100 huts, killed three people, injured over 50 and displaced over 900. President Touadéra 1 Dec said he wanted to negotiate conditions of disarmament with armed groups; Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) SG 11 Dec said it would assist disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration process by organising talks with armed groups but consider supporting forced disarmament if negotiations failed. In parallel, several ex-Seleka hardliners allegedly met Angolan President dos Santos to discuss further talks. UN mission (MINUSCA) 14 Dec reported “alarming increase” in human rights abuses by ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups, Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels and Fulani armed groups since Aug 2016. UN report 5 Dec accused sixteen Gabonese and 25 Burundian peacekeepers of sexual abuse and exploitation in CAR 2014-2015.
Govt 7 Dec released eleven opposition members arrested in Nov anti-govt protest organised by New Opposition Front for Transition and Change (FONAC) coalition. Rebel group Chadian Front for Change and Accord (FACT) 13 Dec said Libyan General Khalifa Haftar’s forces carried out airstrike on its base in southern Libya 10 Dec killing one FACT rebel. In visit to Chad French PM and defence minister 29 Dec expressed support to govt and emphasised importance of counter-terrorism partnership.
Legislative elections took place peacefully 18 Dec despite tensions within and between political parties and coalitions. Ruling coalition Houphouëtist Rally for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) won absolute majority with 167 seats of 254. Independent candidates, including many who refused to follow majority coalition line, won 75 seats. Moderate opposition faction led by Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) leader Pascal Affi Nguessan won three seats. Authorities temporarily suspended several opposition newspapers 7 Dec.
Govt and opposition reached new agreement on way forward after security forces repressed protests 19 Dec at end of President Kabila’s second term (constitutionally his last) and violence continued in east. Clashes between security forces and people protesting Kabila staying in power in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Boma and Matadi 19-20 Dec killed at least 40 people, 460 arrested. Kabila 19 Dec appointed new govt led by opposition politician Samy Badibanga. Leader of main opposition coalition Rassemblement, Etienne Tshisekedi, 20 Dec urged people not to recognise Kabila as president and continue peaceful protest. Political dialogue including Rassemblement mediated by Catholic Church (CENCO) resumed 8 Dec after brief suspension, again suspended during 17-21 Dec unrest, signed agreement 31 Dec that Kabila will step down after elections to be held by end of 2017 and appoint PM from Rassemblement to oversee transition; issues still to be negotiated include power-sharing at national level and return of opposition leader Moïse Katumbi. EU 12 Dec imposed asset freezes and travel bans on seven high-ranking security officers for their roles in repressing Sept protests, govt said EU sanctions “illegal”; U.S. same day imposed asset freezes on Kabila allies including former Interior Minister Evarist Boshab and intelligence chief Kalev Mutond. Electoral commission 12 Dec announced start of voter registration in twelve more provinces, said electoral budget at least $1.8bn. Violence continued in east: in N Kivu armed forces (FARDC) clashed with Raia Mutomboki militia in Walikale 7 Dec, nine people killed; UN mission (MONUSCO) and FARDC 16 Dec repelled two attacks by suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels near Beni killing three; suspected Mai Mai attacked Butembo 19 Dec, peacekeeper, policeman, five militants killed; suspected ethnic militia killed seventeen near Nyanzale 22 Dec reportedly provoking revenge attacks 25 Dec killing thirteen near Beni. In S Kivu, FARDC 11 Dec killed Burundian National Forces for Liberation (FNL) rebel in Uvira; killed at least five Burundian soldiers pursuing FNL rebels 21 Dec, Burundi denied incident (see Burundi). FARDC 4 Dec clashed with Kamuina Nsapu militia in Kasai province (centre-south), thirteen soldiers and eighteen militants killed.
Govt 17 Dec said it would release 9,800 people detained for taking part in anti-govt protests since state of emergency began 9 Oct, released some 4,000 21 Dec. U.S. ambassador to UN Samantha Power 20 Dec called on govt to release deputy chairman of opposition Oromo Federalist Congress.
President Jammeh 20 Dec refused to step down after losing 1 Dec presidential vote to Adama Barrow. Jammeh initially conceded defeat after electoral commission said Barrow won with 43.3% of vote to his 39.6%, but ruling party 13 Dec filed petition to challenge results in Supreme Court, due for review 10 Jan. Security forces 13 Dec blocked access to electoral commission. Presidents of Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Ghana representing ECOWAS regional bloc visited country 13 Dec, failed to persuade Jammeh to accept results; ECOWAS 17 Dec appointed Nigerian and Ghanaian presidents as mediators, 22 Dec said standby forces “on alert”; Jammeh 31 Dec said ECOWAS deployment would be “declaration of war” and called for new vote. UN 14 Dec said Jammeh must leave office at end of mandate 19 Jan.
In accordance with 12 Oct agreement between govt and opposition on mayoral and community elections, govt 2 Dec sent revised electoral code to national assembly; main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) 10 Dec said provisions on govt’s appointment of neighbourhood chiefs violated 12 Oct agreement, demanded govt change proposed code; govt 14 Dec submitted new electoral code to national assembly.
PM Umaro Sissoco Embalo 12 Dec announced new govt, sworn in 13 Dec, including three opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) dissidents. UNSG Ban 16 Dec called on all political stakeholders to compromise and reiterated support to ECOWAS-led mediation. IMF 2 Dec resumed payments to govt suspended in June over govt’s bailout for private banks.
Opposition leaders Raila Odinga of Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and Musalia Mudavadi of Amani National Congress (ANC) 6 Dec said they would form coalition to contest 2017 presidential elections. Ahead of Aug 2017 general elections, primaries of ruling Jubilee Party 12-18 Dec marred by claims of rigging and voter intimidation. President Kenyatta 12 Dec accused foreign states and Western-funded NGOs of interfering in electoral process; govt 19 Dec suspended U.S.-funded civic education project. Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) 16 Dec started audit of voter roll. Al-Shabaab 12-14 Dec destroyed four telecommunication masts in Mandera county; Mandera governor said group trying to isolate county, planning major attack. Al-Shabaab 24 Dec attacked communication mast near Tarbaj, Wajir county, killing two people. Govt 27 Dec extended curfew in Mandera county until 28 March.
Disagreements and continued clashes between armed groups prevented deployment planned for 10 Dec in northern regions Gao and Kidal of joint patrols including main separatist rebel alliance Coalition of Azawad Movements (CMA), Platform coalition that favours national unity and government forces (FAMA); over 100 former CMA members 29 Dec joined FAMA and pro-govt armed groups in Gao. Pro-unity Self-Defence Group of Imrad Tuareg and Allies (GATIA) 1 Dec attacked CMA base in N’tilit, Gao region, killing at least three CMA. Unidentified gunmen 18 Dec attacked base of CMA splinter group Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA) in Timbuktu region. CMA President Ag Intalla 19 Dec said coalition would suspend participation in Algiers peace process citing violence and lack of reform and asked Algeria-led mediation to call high-level meeting to “save the accord”. Suspected bandits and jihadists continued to attack national and international security forces in several areas. Mortar attack claimed by Ansar Dine jihadist group on military camp hosting FAMA, MINUSMA peacekeepers and French Barkhane troops in Kidal region 4 Dec wounded Chadian blue helmet. Barkhane vehicle 8 Dec detonated IED in Kidal region, French soldier wounded. Gunmen 15 Dec ambushed FAMA convoy in Mopti region, same day attacked gendarmerie outpost in Sikasso region, wounding gendarme before crossing into Burkina Faso. Gunmen 17 Dec attacked National Guard outpost in Timbuktu region, wounding two officers. Gunmen 6 Dec stormed Niono prison in Segou region, freeing 93 inmates and wounding at least two guards. French-Swiss aid worker kidnapped in Gao city 24 Dec.
International mediators left country early Dec as talks between govt and Renamo armed opposition remained stalled. Nampula provincial assembly member from Renamo shot dead 15 Dec in Nampula in north. Renamo gunmen attacked train at Inhamitanga 7 Dec in central province Sofala, kidnapped fifteen people 7 Dec in Barue, Manica province in west, later released. Police 21 Dec accused Renamo of several attacks in central region including on Inhazonia jail, releasing 48 prisoners. Unidentified assailants kidnapped man and stole cattle in Zimbabwe and returned to Mozambique late Dec (see Zimbabwe). Renamo 27 Dec declared seven-day ceasefire for New Year. Unidentified gunmen shot dead senior Renamo official and former MP, Jose Naitelé, in Nampula city 29 Dec.
Govt 27 Dec said 31 Nigerien Boko Haram (BH) members had surrendered to security forces in Diffa region in SE. Govt 28 Dec announced amnesty and reintegration program for former BH. Netherlands 10 Dec promised €1m to International Organization for Migration in Niger to encourage African migrants to return voluntarily from Europe to home countries. 900 migrants deported from Algeria arrived in Agadez, central Niger, same day.
Army early Dec launched Operation Rescue Final against Boko Haram (BH) in NE and claimed successes, but insurgency remained unvanquished. Army 22 Dec reported 1,880 captives rescued and over 500 insurgents arrested in previous week; 28 Dec said another 1,240 suspected insurgents including 504 children arrested; President Buhari 24 Dec said army had crushed last remaining BH stronghold. BH continued attacks: eight female suicide bombers carried out five attacks 9-31 Dec, notably on market in Madagali town, Adamawa state 9 Dec, killing at least 56; army arrested at least six other suicide bombers trying to detonate explosives; BH faction leader Shekau in 30 Dec video vowed to fight on; BH 31 Dec attacked military in Rann, Borno state but were repelled and at least fifteen BH killed. In Niger Delta electoral commission reported 70 violent incidents during 10 Dec re-run of federal parliament elections in Rivers state including: political thugs ambushed policemen in Uju community, beheaded two. Violence between rival cult groups in Omoku, Rivers state 24 Dec killed at least eight. Violence escalated in Kaduna state in north central zone: suspected Fulani-Muslim gunmen repeatedly attacked mainly Christian communities in southern Kaduna state; Christian Association of Nigeria 30 Dec reported 808 people killed, 1,422 houses and sixteen churches destroyed. Relations between Kaduna state govt and Shia Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) remained tense: high court 2 Dec ordered federal govt to release detained IMN leader Ibrahim Zakzaky within 45 days and pay fine for unlawful detention; Kaduna state govt 5 Dec declared IMN an insurgent group, vowing to prosecute Zakzaky; 18 Dec banned all marches. In Zamfara state in NW, bandits 12 Dec abducted about 35 women at Matankari, state govt next day said about 30 rescued; 13 Dec abducted twelve men near Yar’ Tashar Sahabi. At 14 Dec talks bandits promised to stop violence; over 1,000 bandits 18 Dec surrendered arms to govt in Zurmi local govt area. In NE at least 42 people killed in clashes between Fulani herders and Tiv farmers in Taraba state 17-18 Dec. In SW, police 28 Dec said it foiled plan to bomb Lagos bridge by locally-based criminals.
Suspected Ninja militia attacked military vehicle early Dec in Mindouli district, Pool department, two people killed. UN 9 Dec said fighting in Pool had displaced 13,000 people since April, warned of risk of food shortages. Opposition coalition Initiative for Democracy in Congo and the Republican Front for the Respect of Constitutional Order (IDC-FROCAD) 13 Dec called for end of state of emergency in Pool. Three people killed in attempted prison break in Brazzaville 29 Dec.
Federal parliament inaugurated 27 Dec despite reports of irregularities in delayed voting during month and presidential vote postponed to 24 Jan as Al-Shabaab sustained attacks against security forces and civilians. Electoral Dispute Resolution Mechanism (EDRM) 14 Dec nullified results for five parliamentary seats due to irregularities. Federal Indirect Electoral Implementation Team (FIEIT) 17-19 Dec suspended election of Somaliland parliamentary representatives in Mogadishu after Somaliland elders complained that polling station should be located in AMISOM base to avoid govt interference. Al-Shabaab 6 Dec captured Qeeyib village, Galguduud; car bomb attack 11 Dec killed 28 people and injured over 50 near Mogadishu port; militants 15 Dec carried out suicide bomb attack against Somali National Army (SNA) checkpoint in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, killing six soldiers; same day launched two attacks in Mogadishu, killing six people. Al-Shabaab assassinated two senior officials in Bosaso 20 and 26 Dec, attacked Afgoye, Lower Shabelle 29 Dec, killing at least eight. Two civilians and soldier killed 22 Dec in explosion in Mogadishu. Puntland security forces 3-7 Dec recaptured Qandala, Bari region from pro-Islamic State militants.
President Kiir 14 Dec said govt would hold national dialogue aimed at promoting reconciliation. Ethnic Shilluk Aguelek rebels under Johnson Olony, part of Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), clashed with ethnic Nuer rebels under Gen. Tanginye early Dec. Govt forces continued to fight SPLA-IO rebels in Equatoria region in south; rebels captured govt position on DRC border. U.S.-proposed UNSC resolution including sanctions and arms embargo 23 Dec failed to win enough votes to pass.
Opposition activists and parties and armed opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) called for stay-at-home protest against austerity measures 19 Dec following Nov three-day strike; call unevenly observed in Khartoum 19-21 Dec. Some twenty opposition party members detained Nov due to calls for anti-austerity protests, including Sudanese Congress Party leader Omer al-Digair, released from prison 25 Dec. Consultations between govt and Darfuri rebel groups Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minnawi (SLM-MM) in Addis Ababa 1 Dec broke down over govt’s demand that rebels reveal positions. S Sudan 14 Dec said it had expelled JEM. Chief mediator of African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) Thabo Mbeki tried to restart talks in Khartoum 21 Dec; no developments in negotiation schedule reported.
Court added terrorism, aggravated robbery and attempted murder to murder charge against Rwenzori traditional leader Charles Wesley Mumbere 13 Dec, arrested late Nov after clashes between security forces and local militias in Kasese district; opposition leader Kizza Besigye briefly arrested outside court.
President Mugabe confirmed as ruling party ZANU-PF’s presidential candidate for 2018 elections at party conference 16-18 Dec. VP Emmerson Mnangagwa 22 Dec said security forces on alert on border with Mozambique after unidentified gunmen kidnapped man in Zimbabwe and killed him in Mozambique, cattle also reportedly stolen in Zimbabwe and taken to Mozambique; Mnangagwa blamed Mozambique armed opposition Renamo (see Mozambique).
Decline in Taliban attacks on Afghan security forces across country continued with winter weather. Gunmen 17 Dec killed five airport security guards and their driver in unclaimed attack in Kandahar. Security forces 21 Dec killed thirteen Taliban militants, including high profile Mullah Ramazan, and wounded fourteen, including local commander Mullah Mansour. Two civilians killed in roadside bomb in Laghman province 25 Dec. Suicide bombing in Lashkargah 26 Dec killed at least one policeman; MP wounded in explosion in Kabul 28 Dec. U.S. forces continued to attack Islamic State (IS) targets, including 13 Dec airstrike in Nangarhar province’s Achin district killing around a dozen suspected IS. Taliban 10 Dec claimed Mullah Haibatullah Akundzada had consolidated his position as leader after two senior Taliban pledged their support. Commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan 2 Dec accused Russia and Iran of helping legitimise Taliban in Afghanistan by developing political relations with its leadership; Senate 5 Dec announced investigation into claims while Moscow said contacts with insurgents were aimed at facilitating peace deal with Afghan govt. Representatives from Russia, China and Pakistan met to discuss IS threat in Afghanistan 27 Dec, warned of deteriorating security and increased IS influence; Kabul protested failure to invite Afghan govt. Concern over humanitarian situation continued to mount with OCHA reporting 530,470 people displaced by conflict in Afghanistan in 2016, highest since 2012. Attorney general 17 Dec opened investigation into accusations that First VP Abdul Rashid Dostum tortured and sexually assaulted relative of former governor of Jawzjan province; Dostum denied allegations, which fuelled further political tensions between him and President Ghani.
Security crackdown continued against opposition figures including paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion’s reported abduction 3 Dec of three Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) activists in Natore district, found dead two days later. BNP chair Khaleda Zia pleaded not guilty to corruption charges in special court 1 Dec. High court 13 Dec issued three-month stay on anti-corruption case against BNP standing committee member Mirza Abbas. Chief Justice Surendra Kumar Sinha 10 Dec pressed parliament to scrap constitutional provisions dating from military-backed caretaker regime in 2007 empowering president to control postings, promotions and discipline of lower court judges, arguing they contradict basic constitutional principles. Supreme Court 12 Dec ordered law ministry to issue notification by 15 Jan establishing conduct rules for lower courts consistent with separation of powers. Amid continued clampdown on civil society, free speech and political opposition, authorities early Dec launched fresh investigation into financial affairs of Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus. In 18 Dec meeting, BNP delegation urged President Hamid to form interim cabinet to oversee next national election, due by early 2019. BNP 6 Dec submitted proposal to president’s office to reconstitute Election Commission and amend Representation of the People Order to give military more authority during polling. Security forces 20 Dec arrested two suspected members of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) faction believed to be involved in July Gulshan attack. Woman believed to have JMB links blew herself up during police raid on house in Dhaka 24 Dec. Awami League MP Manjurul Islam shot dead by masked men at his home in Gaibandha district 31 Dec. As tens of thousands of Rohingyas fled military crackdown in Myanmar’s Rakhine state to Bangladesh (see Myanmar), Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan 1 Dec said they would be sent back to Myanmar at “convenient time”; Zia called on govt to give refugees shelter, calling Myanmar’s action “genocide”.
Xinjiang authorities reported terrorist attack in Moyu County, W Xinjiang, 28 Dec in which assailants drove car into govt building and set off explosives, killing two people; three assailants shot dead.
Chinese defence ministry 10 Dec said it had lodged representation to Tokyo over Japan’s interference with six Chinese military aircraft flying through Miyako Strait toward Western Pacific in what it called routine exercise; said two Japanese fighter jets scrambled Chinese aircraft from close range in “dangerous and unprofessional” manoeuvres counter to freedom of navigation and over-flight. Tokyo 12 Dec denied close-range interference, said Chinese statement “extremely regrettable and harms improving ties”, lodged protests; said Chinese aircraft did not violate Japanese airspace. Chinese air force 15 Dec said flybys through Miyako Strait in early Dec and late Nov “regular”, similar operations would become routine. Negotiation over bilateral Maritime and Air Communication Mechanism to manage such encounters continued with little concrete progress. At 9 Dec talks China and Japan agreed to launch contact mechanism at early date. Japanese PM Abe 21 Dec announced Japan would strengthen its coast guard in ECS to defend disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands; govt next day approved record high defence budget of $43.6bn.
Several suspected Maoists reported killed in clashes with security forces in Chhattisgarh during month. Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik 8 Dec reported decrease in Maoist activities in state during 2016. Authorities late Nov said govt’s demonetisation initiative had hit Maoist activities, prompting increase in number of surrenders.
Tensions between India and Pakistan remained high as exchanges of fire between their forces along Line of Control (LoC) continued. Incidents included Indian artillery shelling 16 Dec that reportedly hit school bus in Mohra, Kotli district in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing driver and wounding several children. Hostile rhetoric between Indian and Pakistani officials continued. Outgoing Pakistan Army Chief Raheel Sharif 29 Nov advised India not to take Pakistan’s “policy of patience for weakness”. Indian Home Minister 11 Dec warned Pakistan would be broken “into ten pieces” if it does not stop cross-border terrorism. World Bank 12 Dec halted two Pakistani and Indian arbitration processes under 1960 Indus Water Treaty; concerned that current tensions could endanger treaty, called on countries to consider bilateral approaches to resolving conflicting interests under treaty. Clashes between security personnel and protesters in Indian-administered Kashmir continued. Two-day gun battle between security forces and suspected Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) militants in Arwani, south of Srinagar, 7-9 Dec saw two suspected militants killed and triggered anti-India protests; one protester killed and dozens reported wounded in clashes with security forces. Militant killed in clash with security forces in Anantnag district 14 Dec, sparking protests. Physicians for Human Rights NGO issued report 6 Dec accusing Indian police and paramilitary forces of using excessive indiscriminate force against protesters and blocking medical care since start of current protests July 2016. Attacks on Indian troops also continued, including 18 Dec suspected Kashmiri militant attack on convoy in Pampore, killing three soldiers. Indian policeman killed by suspected militants in northern district Kupwara 31 Dec. Indian govt 21 Dec claimed Nov demonetisation initiative has hurt militants’ finances, allegedly spurring them to carry out series of bank robberies; Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Hizbul Mujahideen denied role in robbery in Pulwarna, S Kashmir 15 Dec.
Trial began 12 Dec of Jakarta’s Chinese-descent Christian governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama on charges of blasphemy over remarks he made in Sept; Purnama denied charges. At least 200,000 joined third mass rally protesting against Purnama 2 Dec; President Widodo, Purnama ally who earlier blamed “political actors” for protests, joined rally prayer session. Police 10 Dec arrested woman and two men near Jakarta suspected of planning bomb attack on presidential palace in Jakarta; also detonated unexploded bomb. Plot believed to be first involving female would-be suicide bomber; police reported suspects had received money and directions from Bahrun Naim, Indonesian militant fighting with Islamic State in Syria. Police reportedly foiled another bomb plot in Jakarta 21 Dec, killed three suspects; 25 Dec killed two suspected militants in shootout in W Java. Several thousand reportedly protested in Papua town Wamena 10 Dec calling for West Papuan independence. Protests held in over a dozen places across Indonesia calling for West Papuan independence 19 Dec despite police refusing permits, over 500 reportedly arrested.
Leader Kim Jong-un in New Year address 1 Jan said preparation in “last stage” for test launch of inter-continental ballistic missile. Thae Yong-ho, DPRK diplomat who defected to ROK in Aug and reportedly most senior govt official ever to do so, 27 Dec said Pyongyang had no intention to give up nuclear programs and believed 2017 would provide best opportunity for advancement given leadership changes in U.S. and ROK. Following new UNSC sanctions 30 Nov, Pyongyang responded 1 Dec with massive artillery drill. State-run media reported drill, observed by Kim Jong-un, simulated strikes on military targets in ROK, including five border islands and “reactionary ruling organs” in Seoul and other cities. Similar drill took place 11 Dec simulating strike on ROK’s presidential Blue House. Beijing said new UNSC resolution demonstrated “uniform stand” of international community against DPRK’s nuclear and missile programs, but urged countries to implement it in “balanced way” to avoid humanitarian fallout and negative impact on “normal economic activities”. Tokyo and Seoul 2 Dec both announced additional sanctions, expanding blacklist of DPRK individuals and entities; Beijing said it opposed any unilateral sanction outside UNSC framework. Beijing 15 Dec said Chinese defence cooperation with ROK should be based on respect for “each other’s security interests”; followed ROK media reports that Beijing ignored request by ROK navy to visit Qingdao port as punishment for planned deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system. ROK President Pak Geun-hye impeached 9 Dec over corruption scandal; acting President Hwang Kyo Ahn 18 Dec said he would carry through existing foreign policies, including THAAD deployment. Michael Flynn, U.S. President-elect Trump’s pick for national security advisor, 21 Dec called THAAD deployment “appropriate”.
Meeting 15-16 Dec, Japanese PM Abe and Russian President Putin agreed to take steps to resolve dispute over islands, including joint economic projects.
Humanitarian access to closed areas of N Rakhine state, where security forces were attacked by Harakah al-Yaqin (Faith Movement, HaY) armed group in Oct and Nov, remained blocked to over 150,000 including estimated 30,000 newly displaced. Kofi Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine state visited conflict-affected parts of N Maungdaw 2-4 Dec, called for resumed humanitarian access; call also made in statement from fourteen diplomatic missions 9 Dec. UN human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein 16 Dec accused Myanmar of “counterproductive, even callous” approach to crisis, cited daily reports of abuses including rapes and killings. Rakhine situation prompted regional tensions including with Malaysia, whose PM Najib Razak speaking at major protest in Kuala Lumpur 4 Dec called for international intervention to stop “genocide”. At special ASEAN retreat in Yangon 19 Dec, govt reiterated its “serious commitment” to resolving “complex issue”, need for “time and space”. President 1 Dec announced national commission to investigate Oct/Nov attacks and military’s response. Fighting between govt and Northern Alliance of four armed groups – Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army (AA) – in Shan and Kachin states intensified over month. Myanmar military further stepped up attacks, particularly on KIO positions, and took key strategic base, Gidon, from KIO 17 Dec after intense fighting including air attacks and heavy artillery bombardment. Fighting caused further 5,000 IDPs to flee to KIO HQ at Laiza; UN 20 Dec estimated 15,000 have fled into China since 20 Nov. Chinese mediation attempt, bringing together Myanmar govt’s Peace Commission and leaders of TNLA, MNDAA, AA and United Wa State Party (UWSP) in Kunming 3-4 Dec failed. Clashes resumed 20 Dec between TNLA and Shan State Army-South (SSA-South) ethnic armed groups in N Shan state’s Namtu township; clashes also took place between AA and govt forces in S Chin state’s Paletwa township 12 Dec. Military and some opposition parties pushed in legislature for Northern Alliance groups and individual military leaders to be declared terrorists; rejected by NLD majority. Shan state legislature passed similar resolution 7 Dec.
Local elections due April-May 2017 still uncertain due to unresolved constitutional disputes and differences sharpening over reforms sequencing. Opposition Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) and some ruling Nepali Congress (NC) leaders favour polls first so Sept 2015 constitution can be implemented; dissenting Madhesi parties argue constitutional provisions including new provincial boundaries must be amended before elections. Supreme Court 21 Dec appointed six-person amicus curiae team brief on suitability of local polls under existing or restructured administrative units. Despite these differences, NC 30 Dec tabled constitution amendment bill approved by cabinet 29 Nov and Madhesi alliance agreed to support bill; UML obstructed discussions in parliament, announced street protests for Jan 2017. Madhesi alliance objected to constitutionally-mandated Local-level Restructuring Commission’s recommendation to replace existing municipal- and village-level entities with over 720 new local administrative units due to contested provincial boundaries. Former King Gyanendra Shah expressed concern over “intolerable” state of political affairs in 21 Dec statement. Nepal Army (NA) 29 Nov announced first ever joint military exercise with China’s People’s Liberation Army for Feb 2017; NA regularly conducts similar exercises with India and U.S.
Judicial commission report into Aug Quetta hospital attack that killed 74 people released 15 Dec, highlighting interior ministry’s inaction over banned extremist groups and criticising Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar for meeting leaders of groups and allowing them to hold public meetings. Report also denounced military and civilian intelligence agencies for lack of transparency and accountability. Recommendations include reform of anti-terrorism National Action Plan (NAP); ban on all terror groups and database; and registration of all educational institutions including madrasas. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) MPs called for dismissal of Nisar for failing to implement NAP; Nisar called report “one-sided”. Extremist organisation attacks continued particularly in Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (KPK), including senior counter-terrorism police officer killed by unidentified militants 10 Dec in Peshawar. Govt operations against Taliban continued: 4 Dec airstrike in FATA killed at least twelve suspected Taliban; 5 Dec operation in Balochistan’s Pishin district killed five, including alleged mastermind of Quetta hospital attack. Police failed to prevent 12 Dec mob attack on Ahmadiyya sect mosque in Chakwal, N Punjab, despite prior warning. New army chief General Bajwa reconstituted country’s high command and voiced intention to retain military’s control over internal security policy. Supreme Court 9 Dec adjourned hearings until early Jan on investigating charges against PM Sharif’s off-shore holdings disclosed in Panama Papers leak. Opposition-controlled Senate 15 Dec passed PPP-sponsored bill for parliamentary investigation into Panama Papers; regarded as unlikely to pass in Sharif-controlled National Assembly.
President Duterte early Dec signed order creating 25-member panel to propose constitutional amendments setting up federal system of govt, in order to end conflict and open up economy; proposals will be presented to Congress in six months. Addressing Mindanao Peace Conference in Davao City 16 Dec, Presidential peace advisor Jesus Dureza said amending constitution would remove “stumbling block” to peace talks with rebel groups. After meeting with Duterte 2 Dec, Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) said president wants newly expanded Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BCT), including representatives from Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), to start crafting new Bangsamoro Basic Law. MILF leader Murad Ebrahim 27 Dec said he hoped new law would reach Congress by July 2017. MILF 4 Dec warned that new Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Maute group complicates peace process and feeds on frustrations caused by delay in implementing Bangsamoro agreement. Suspected Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) militants 15 Dec attacked military in Maguindanao province; two suspected rebels and one civilian reported killed. More than a dozen wounded in two explosions outside churches in Mindanao in Dec. Military renewed offensive against Abu Sayyaf group, responsible for recent spate of kidnappings, in Jolo early Dec: six soldiers reported killed in clashes in Sulu’s Patikul town 10 and 12 Dec; around ten Abu Sayyaf also killed. Military 12 Dec reported Abu Sayyaf had released two Indonesian hostages; still holds 23 hostages, reportedly kidnapped four fishermen 20 Dec. Military 10 Dec reported Malaysian security forces had killed Abu Sayyaf commander Abraham Hamid nicknamed “kidnap king”. Indonesian military chief 6 Dec warned IS attempting to create base in Mindanao; Duterte 7 Dec said his next priority after his so-called war on drugs will be crackdown on terrorism. Duterte early Dec rejected communist rebel alliance National Democratic Front (NDFP) request to release over 130 political prisoners as confidence-building measure until bilateral ceasefire agreement is signed; third round of peace talks between govt and NDFP scheduled 18-24 Jan.
China continued military deployments in SCS, 8 Dec flying long-range nuclear-capable H-6 bomber along disputed territory for first time since March 2015; 15 Dec said this was regular exercise, will be routine. U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies report 13 Dec said satellite images showed China might have built large anti-aircraft guns and close-in weapons systems on its seven artificial islands in disputed Spratly Archipelago. Beijing said it was legitimate to deploy “necessary military facilities” for defence purposes, deployments did not mean militarisation. Chinese Liaoning aircraft carrier and five other vessels entered SCS 26 Dec; China said deployment part of annual plan. China and Philippines continued rapprochement. President Duterte 11 Dec said his govt would finalise firearms deal with China. Both coast guards 15-16 Dec held first meeting to discuss forming Joint Coast Guard Committee (JCGC) on Maritime Cooperation. Reuters 9 Dec reported Vietnam has started dredging work on Ladd Reef on SW fringe of Spratlys, based on satellite imagery; Beijing called activity illegal. Chinese and Vietnamese vice FMs 12 Dec discussed border negotiation mechanism, agreed to expand cooperation on border control and law enforcement. Confrontational rhetoric between China and U.S. intensified (see also Taiwan Strait). Head of U.S. Pacific Command 14 Dec said U.S. would begin flying its most advanced fighter plane out of Australia 2017 should Beijing’s “aggressive” actions continue; Beijing urged U.S. to “stick to its pledge of not taking sides” in SCS. Chinese navy 15 Dec captured U.S. Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) some 50 nautical miles NW of Philippines’ Subic Bay. U.S. registered objection to China’s “unlawful seizure”; China said it retrieved “unknown device” to prevent safety hazards, regretted Washington’s move to “dramatise” issue, returned UUV 20 Dec.
Progress on new constitution further delayed: first full parliamentary debate on Constitutional Assembly (CA) subcommittee reports postponed to 9-11 Jan, also release of interim report of CA’s steering committee. Senior Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) leaders 9 Dec announced party would support devolution only within current unitary state, opposed any constitutional changes requiring referendum; United National Party (UNP) same day passed resolution endorsing need for referendum, reiterating support for “maximum devolution within a unitary state”. Both positions at odds with subcommittee reports and positions of Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Transitional justice mechanisms also met with delays: legal steps needed to establish Office of Missing Persons not taken; scheduled 21 Dec meeting to deliver report of transitional justice consultations task force to president and PM postponed until early 2017. In 26 Nov speech to SLFP President Sirisena announced he would write to U.S. President-elect Trump with request to “free” country from continued UN oversight on war crimes allegations. UN Committee on Torture (UNCAT) issued strong “conclusions” 7 Dec: said torture in Sri Lanka “routine”, criticised continued use of Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and near complete impunity for torture and other serious rights violations. Surprise 23 Dec High Court acquittal of six accused in 2006 murder of Tamil National Alliance MP Nadarajah Raviraj dealt further blow to hopes for accountability for war-time crimes. Uptick in incidents of racial and religious intolerance continued: hard-line head of Batticaloa Buddhist temple Ampitiye Sumanarathana Thera, believed to be coordinating with Rajapaksa-led opposition, continued agitations to settle Sinhalese illegally in Tamil district. Plans for major rally in Batticaloa 3 Dec, designed to link up with Buddhist Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) march, blocked by court order. Justice minister met BBS leader and Sumanarathana Thera 21 Dec to discuss monks’ concerns.
Tensions between China and Taiwan and U.S. increased after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump answered what he described as congratulatory phone call from Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen 2 Dec, breaching decades-old diplomatic protocol. Beijing initially called incident “little trick played by Taiwan”, lodged representations with White House and Trump’s transition team. White House said it had no prior knowledge of call, reaffirmed its commitment to One China policy. Tsai 6 Dec said call did not signal policy change, Taiwan values regional stability. Beijing 6 Dec called on Washington not to allow Tsai’s planned transit in U.S. in Jan; U.S. said stopovers would continue “based on longstanding U.S. practice”. Trump 11 Dec suggested he might not feel bound by One China policy unless the two countries could make deal on other issues; Beijing called principle its “core interest”, said undermining it would eliminate possibility for cooperation. China 25 Dec lodged “stern representations” with Washington after U.S. passed defence bill including senior military exchanges with Taiwan. China’s first aircraft carrier Liaoning 25 Dec passed 90 nautical miles south of Taiwan via Bashi Channel for first blue water drill in Western Pacific. São Tomé and Principe 20 Dec announced termination of diplomatic ties with Taiwan; Taipei described decision as “extremely regrettable”, said it could not meet country’s request for financial aid; Beijing resumed diplomatic relationship with São Tomé and Principe.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun, Rama X confirmed 1 Dec; swore in Privy Council next day with seven members from his father’s Council and three new members, all retired generals and members of ruling National Council for Peace and Order; later appointed three more Privy Councillors. National Legislative Assembly 16 Dec unanimously passed amendments to 2007 Computer Crimes Act expanding state powers to monitor, block and remove online content; several people alleged to have hacked govt websites in protest arrested. Police General Srivara 30 Nov announced police mid-Oct arrested three men from Narathiwat province in deep south planning attacks on six tourist sites in and around Bangkok. Army 13 Dec handed over to police six more suspects in plot, which observers believe suggests Malay-Muslim militants intend to follow up on Aug bombings with further attacks on tourist areas outside their traditional area of activity. Govt and MARA Patani (Patani Consultative Council, umbrella organisation of five Malay-Muslim separatist groups in exile) negotiators met 19-21 Dec in Malaysia; discussion reportedly focused on establishment of safety zones; main militant group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) not involved in dialogue. Six people killed in five separate shooting attacks 6 Dec in Patani and Narathiwat provinces. IED attack wounded four Border Patrol Police officers in Sungai Kolok district, Narathiwat 12 Dec.
Govt 29 Dec said three of its military killed in northern part of border with Azerbaijan, result of failed Azerbaijani “incursion”; Azerbaijan denied accusations, said Armenia staged provocation, reported one of its servicemen also killed in clash. During 21 Dec visit of Iranian President Rouhani, Iranian and Armenian leaders finalised regional gas and electricity deals, signed bilateral cooperation agreements on security and customs.
Formal meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs at OSCE Ministerial Council in Germany 8-9 Dec to further discuss proposed strengthening of OSCE monitoring in NK, under discussion since April escalation, and next steps in peace process, did not take place; the two ministers met only informally. Occasional exchanges of fire in Northern and NE sections of Line of Contact during month; Armenia 5 and 8 Dec reported at least two of its soldiers killed. Armenian President Sargsyan visited military bases and different sections of front line in NK 8-11 Dec; Azerbaijani President Aliyev also visited front line early Dec. New French Minsk co-chair Stéphane Visconti visited Armenia and Azerbaijan mid-month; U.S. 30 Dec named Richard Hoagland its new interim Minsk Group co-chair. Tensions exacerbated by deadly clash between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in northern section of their shared border 29 Dec (see Armenia).
Azerbaijani soldier killed in clash with Armenian forces along border 29 Dec (see Armenia). Baku court 8 Dec sentenced opposition activist Bayram Mammadov to ten years’ prison for drug trafficking; rights groups condemned case as politically motivated, Mammadov said he was tortured into confession. Security service reported it shot dead would-be suicide bomber in Baku 3 Dec; suspect previously jailed for joining terrorist organisation. Amid continued weakening of currency, central bank tightened restrictions on transfer of foreign currency abroad. During visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu, Azerbaijani and Israeli leaders signed cooperation agreements including on energy.
Constitutional Court 1 Dec annulled results of controversial 25 Sept Republika Srpska (RS) referendum approving continued celebration of 9 Jan RS annual day, saying it was contrary to constitution. RS President Milorad Dodik and Croat member of tripartite state presidency Dragan Covic 16 Dec announced initiative to obstruct work of govt, including reforms required for progress on EU membership, until foreign judges are removed from Constitutional Court.