CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month March 2016

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month February 2016

Improved Situations

The month saw conflict continue to rage in Turkey’s south east between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), looking likely to further escalate in March. Afghanistan and Somalia both saw armed insurgencies capture new territories. In Africa, political tensions rose in Chad, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, while in Venezuela, deadlock between the opposition-held parliament and government has brought the country closer to political and economic implosion. In Asia, North Korea’s announcement of a satellite launch in violation of UN Security Council resolutions prompted international condemnation and calls for tough new sanctions. On a positive note, the coming month brings the possibility of a final agreement to end Colombia’s decades-old insurgency.

CrisisWatch Digests

Violence continued to intensify in Turkey’s south east between the PKK and security forces, while a car bombing in Ankara on 17 February left 29 high-ranking military officials and civil servants dead. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), an ultra-radical PKK offshoot, claimed responsibility for the Ankara bombing, which further weakened already slim prospects for peace overtures between Ankara and Kurdish insurgents. The PKK has previously warned it will increase its activity come spring, while the TAK has vowed to carry out further attacks in western Turkey. In our December report A Sisyphean Task - Resuming Turkey-PKK Peace Talks, Crisis Group called on conflict parties to urgently end violence and agree on ceasefire conditions to enable a speedy resumption of peace talks. February also saw Turkey start shelling Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) targets in northern Syria after the group began gaining ground against Turkey-backed rebels in late January.

In Afghanistan, fighting continued to worsen ahead of proposed peace talks between the government and the Taliban in early March. National security forces pulled out of Helmand’s Musa Qala district after dozens of police and soldiers were killed across the southern province mid-month, while the governor of Badakhshan province reported two districts had fallen completely under Taliban control. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab upped terrorist attacks and recaptured locations across south-central Somalia, including in Lower Shabelle, Bay and Jubaland regions, killing over 60 people. As Crisis Group has long recommended, military pressure can only sustain progress against the group within durable political settlements. The Somalia Federal Government (SFG) and external allies should pay particular attention to parallel national and local reconciliation processes within Somali society, and address the local political grievances that enable Al-Shabaab to remain and rebuild.

In Venezuela, political tensions spiked in February amid a spiralling economic and humanitarian crisis. President Maduro’s government continued to act in defiance of the opposition-held legislature, arguing that the National Assembly’s decisions are subject to approval by the government-controlled Supreme Court (TSJ). The opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance began examining constitutional options for Maduro’s removal, including the possibility of both a recall referendum and a constitutional amendment. As the risk of an extra-constitutional response by either side or a military coup increases, Crisis Group has called for the Organization of American States (OAS) to prepare an emergency political and humanitarian initiative to prevent serious violence and a collapse that would bring regional instability and deepen the misery of the Venezuelan population.

In Chad, civil unrest and a police crackdown worsened ahead of the 10 April presidential vote. Following several anti-government demonstrations, civil society created the “ça suffit” platform which called for a ville morte national strike on 24 February protesting President Idriss Déby’s fifth term bid. Although declared illegal by the government, the strike was widely observed in major cities. In Mozambique, armed opposition Renamo ruled out in early February a face-to-face meeting between its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, and President Nyusi to restart long-running talks, citing Dhlakama’s fears for his safety. Renamo’s renewed attacks on security forces and civilian vehicles left several dead and injured throughout the month while military operations to disarm its militants in Tete province continued to force thousands to flee. In Zimbabwe, rivalry within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) intensified between First Lady Grace Mugabe and Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, both jockeying to be President Mugabe’s successor. Grace Mugabe’s harsh rhetoric against security chiefs and war veterans aligned to Mnangagwa on 12 February further polarised the two camps. Later on 18 February police used water cannon and tear gas to disperse a war veterans’ protest in Harare. In Zimbabwe: Stranded in Stasis, Crisis Group called on international actors to seek common ground and support political reform that promotes an inclusive, sustainable economic recovery.

On 7 February, North Korea announced the launch of an earth observation satellite in violation of the UN Security Council ban on ballistic missile tests, prompting wide international condemnation and calls for tough new sanctions.

The prospect of an end to Colombia’s decades-long insurgency draws closer as negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are scheduled to resume talks on 2 March to address pending issues on the termination of the conflict, ahead of the country’s 23 March deadline for a final agreement.

Latest Updates

Africa

Angola

Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave (FLEC) 18 Feb announced return to full-scale hostilities following series of reported attacks against govt forces (FAA): FLEC 7 Feb ambushed FAA patrol in Chivoco, Massabi region, three soldiers killed, four injured; 12 Feb ambushed FAA troops in Buco Zau region, five soldiers and one FLEC killed.

Burkina Faso

Security concerns remained following mid-Jan terrorist attack in Ouagadougou; militants 5 Feb released Australian woman abducted same day as attack, husband still captive. Former member of Presidential Guard (RSP) Moussa Nébié aka “Rambo”, one of alleged orchestrators of Sept 2015 coup and 22 Jan attack on Yimdi arms depot, and two civilians arrested 21 Feb in Côte d’Ivoire and extradited to Ouagadougou. FM Alpha Barry 22 Feb expressed gratitude for extradition. Ivorian govt 22 Feb confirmed former President Compaoré’s Ivorian citizenship, precluding possibility of his extradition to Burkina. PM Thieba 5 Feb made first address to National Assembly, received vote of confidence. Clash narrowly avoided in Sapouy 18 Feb between police and vigilante groups “Koglweogo”, known for helping govt tackle insecurity and accused of rights abuses.

Burundi

President Nkurunziza gave indications he was ready to make concessions to resolve political crisis amid international pressure: after meeting Nkurunziza, UNSG Ban 23 Feb announced govt would hold political dialogue with opposition, lift media restrictions and release 2,000 prisoners. EU FMs 15 Feb said they were ready to strengthen economic sanctions against instigators of rights violations. Presidents of South Africa, Mauritania, Senegal, Gabon and Ethiopia visited Bujumbura 24-27 Feb; govt confirmed willingness to engage in dialogue, South African President Zuma 27 Feb said AU would send 100 human rights and 100 military monitors. Violence continued: gunmen 21 Feb killed two people; one person killed in grenade attack at market in Bujumbura 22 Feb.

Cameroon

Boko Haram (BH) launched fourteen attacks in Far North; 79 killed, some 175 injured. BH 6 Feb burnt Ndjinouba village in Hile-Alifa commune killing five people; double suicide bombing in Nguetchewe 10 Feb killed ten and injured 43; BH killed seven and burnt three churches in Idoua (Mayo Tsanaga) same day; double suicide bombing 19 Feb in Meme (Mora area) killed 25 and injured 115. Fifteen BH fighters killed 1 Feb in unsuccessful attack on Rapid Response Brigade (BIR) Achigachia base. Govt reported army operations in Nigeria 11-14 Feb and 23-24 Feb killed 162 BH fighters in Goshi and 92 in Kumche; several military personnel also killed. Security forces reported 59 BH fighters arrested during month, including 21 in Minawao refugee camp.

Central African Republic

National Election Authority (ANE) 20 Feb provisionally announced former PM Touadéra winner of peaceful 14 Feb presidential run-off with 63% of vote. Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, runner-up with 37%, accepted result 20 Feb. Touadéra’s campaign director 22 Feb said president would focus first on disarmament, demobilisation, reintegration and repatriation (DDRR) and restructuring armed forces. ANE 23 Feb announced results of 14 Feb legislative elections; 46 districts elected MPs in first round, second round to be held 27 March. AU observer mission noted transparent elections with some logistical problems. Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) attacks continued; three killed, over 59 abducted in ten raids. Ex-Seleka faction Popular Front for the Central African Renaissance (FPRC) 8 Feb handed captured LRA commander Okot Odek to U.S. forces; U.S. 12 Feb said another LRA commander defected near SE Pangbayanga. UNSC 9 Feb adopted Resolution 2264 maintaining MINUSCA military and police ceiling at 12,830 and adding 68 corrections officers.

Chad

Civil unrest and police crackdown worsened ahead of 10 April presidential vote. Ruling Mouvement patriotique du salut (MPS) 9 Feb named Déby presidential candidate; Déby said if re-elected he would reintroduce two presidential term limit and move to federal system. Govt 13 Feb announced MP Albert Pahimi Padacké from SW as new PM. Opposition MP Ngarledji Yorongar 27 Feb announced candidacy for presidential vote. Starting early Feb police cracked down on frequent anti-govt protests. Youth marches began 15 Feb against 13 Feb rape for which sons of FM and generals arrested; one boy killed. Civil society created “ça suffit” platform calling for villes mortes national strike protesting Déby’s fifth term bid; declared illegal by govt, observed in major cities 24 Feb.

Côte d’Ivoire

President Ouattara 5 Feb reiterated Ivorians will no longer be sent to International Criminal Court (ICC), noting national justice system has capacity to prosecute them; statement followed late-Jan start of ICC trials of former President Gbagbo and youth leader Charles Blé Goudé. Pro-Gbagbo officers Anselme Séka Yapo, Brunot Dogbo Blé and Séry Daleba sentenced to life 18 Feb for murder of former junta leader and President Gueï during 2002 failed coup. Prisoners in main Abidjan prison (MACA) rioted 20 Feb; one guard and ten prisoners, including infamous gangster Yacouba Coulibaly, aka “Yakou the Chinese”, killed.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Opposition alliance Front citoyen 2016 10 Feb retracted call for demonstrations, but called instead for villes mortes national strike 16 Feb to pressure President Kabila not to stay in power beyond constitutional limit; call largely heeded in Kinshasa, Bukavu and Goma. Authorities continued to repress protesters; at least 35 people arrested before and during strike, opposition politician Martin Fayulu briefly detained 15 Feb. Electoral commission (CENI) stirred into action: mid-Feb announced tender for providing material with which to update voter register; 11 Feb announced election of 21 provincial governors to replace special commissioners would take place 26 March. Following agreement late Jan, MONUSCO and Congolese armed forces (FARDC) resumed cooperation, with primary targets Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militia and Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels.

Ethiopia

Federal govt continued crackdown on largely peaceful protests in Oromia region; security forces 12 Feb fired on bus killing four, 15 Feb clashed with armed men believed to be local militia, govt reported seven officers killed. PM Hailemariam Desalegn 23 Feb said violence in Oromia instigated by Eritrea and other foreign forces, vowed “decisive” response; Communication Minister Getachew Reda 28 Feb claimed opposition parties also involved. Eritrean soldiers early Feb reportedly abducted some 80 miners, killed one in northern Tigray region; miners released to Ethiopia 27 Feb.

Guinea

Tensions increased within leading opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), pitting supporters of party President Diallo against those of party VP Bah Oury. UFDG 4 Feb banned Bah from running for party leadership following his 24 Jan return from exile in France after presidential pardon of his 2011 conviction for attack on President Alpha Condé’s residence. Violence erupted 5 Feb between Bah and Diallo supporters at UFDG HQ in Conakry, one journalist shot dead. Authorities 6 Feb launched investigation into journalist’s death, arrested twenty militants, primarily Diallo supporters. EU Electoral Observation Mission 11 Feb released report on 11 Oct 2015 presidential elections noting legal and technical framework for elections suffered serious shortcomings.

Guinea-Bissau

Crisis continued within ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC): in contradiction of late-Jan court ruling, different Bissau judge 8 Feb cancelled National Assembly leadership’s decision to deprive fifteen PAIGC dissidents of their mandate. Assembly leadership rejected decision but cancelled planned 15-25 Feb parliamentary session citing legal uncertainty. Consultations organised by President Vaz and joined by international officials including ECOWAS mediator and former Nigerian President Obasanjo 11 Feb failed to resolve dispute; assembly head Cipriano Cassama and PAIGC boycotted talks over presence of dissident PAIGC members.

Kenya

Somalia PM Sharmarke briefly detained 20 Feb at Nairobi airport for security protocol breach; Somali govt demanded apology. Gunmen 21 Feb attacked police facility in Hindi, Lamu county; no casualties reported. Communal violence included: Illchamus community raiders 4 Feb attacked Tugen (Kalenjin) herders in Baringo county, three killed, hundreds of livestock taken; cattle raiders 5 Feb killed at least six in Samburu county. Govt 21 Feb started talks with Ethiopia and South Sudan on disputed border demarcation.

Liberia

Political tensions grew as opposition Movement for Progressive Change (MPC) 15 Feb threatened legal action against govt for alleged arbitrary detention of party leader Simeon Freeman. Police 8 Feb barricaded Freeman’s home and threatened him over rumours he accused govt of creating death squad to kill ten people, mainly politicians. Police 29 Feb fired tear gas to disperse crowd demanding release of activist Vandalark Patricks.

Mali

Tensions rose 2 Feb when hundreds of pro-govt militia arrived at rebel stronghold Kidal; violence avoided with talks between rebel alliance Coalition of Azawad Movements (CMA) and pro-govt militia. Leaders 6 Feb jointly announced reduction of pro-govt militia in Kidal and establishment of joint city patrols; both groups underlined commitment to Bamako peace agreement, but said Oct 2015 Anefis pacts were “best tool” for peace. Govt, CMA and pro-govt armed groups 26 Feb jointly stated need to boost peace agreement implementation and announced peace forum in Kidal 27-30 March. Violent jihadi groups remain serious threat with increased attacks against international and govt forces (FAMA) throughout month including: car bomb attack 5 Feb near MINUSMA building in Timbuktu, one soldier killed, two soldiers and two civilians wounded; MINUSMA camp attacked 12 Feb, six peacekeepers killed, 30 wounded. Banditry targeting NGOs and local violence added to widespread insecurity, including NGO vehicle attacked 1 Feb near Timbuktu.

Mozambique

Opposition Renamo early Feb rejected talks with President Nyusi, arguing Renamo leader Dhlakama’s safety could not be guaranteed. Renamo 8 Feb said it would block roads in Sofala province; clashes and attacks on civilian vehicles left several dead and injured, security forces 19 Feb resumed armed escorts for civilians along 100km section of EN1 highway into Sofala. Renamo gunmen 15 Feb shot dead ruling Frelimo party judge Manecas da Silva and secretary in Sofala. Military operations to disarm Renamo militants in Tete province continued to generate refugee flows; over 6,000 have reportedly fled into Malawi amid calls for investigations into alleged executions and sexual abuses by security forces.

Niger

Tensions heightened ahead of 21 Feb presidential elections: during opposition rallies security forces 2-3 Feb clashed with supporters of opposition candidate Hama Amadou. Police 9 Feb arrested Amadou supporter and famous singer Hamsou Garba and detained her for one week for allegedly inciting civil disobedience, fuelling opposition accusations of govt’s authoritarian drift. Govt 13 Feb accused opposition of planning to tamper with votes after customs officer seized 20,000 ballots with Amadou’s name checked; Amadou’s party argued ballots were to show militants how to vote, accused govt of trying to undermine his credibility. Presidential vote held peacefully 21 Feb; opposition parties 23 Feb threatened to reject results and accused govt of rigging vote. CENI published results 26 Feb: Mahamadou Issoufou won 48.45% but will face Amadou, who won 17.76%, in run-off elections 20 March. Presidential coalition easily won parliamentary majority. Boko Haram attacks slowed in Diffa region but security situation remained precarious; OCHA 8 Feb reported some 2 million Nigeriens face food insecurity.

Nigeria

Govt reported further gains in fight against Boko Haram (BH) including: troops 3 Feb reportedly killed over 100 BH insurgents and freed some 1,000 people held by BH in Boboshe, Garidawaji and Mamawari villages, Borno state; army 18 Feb said troops ambushed and killed scores of insurgents near Sambisa forest, Borno state. President Buhari 28 Feb said BH no longer a threat to Nigeria’s security. BH continued attacks in Borno state, including 9 Feb suicide bombing in displaced persons’ camp in Dikwa, some 60 killed. Over 100 killed in clashes between Fulani herdsmen and indigenous farmers in four locations in Agatu area, Benue state throughout month; Buhari 27 Feb ordered investigation. Clashes erupted 12 Feb between rival cult groups, Icelanders and Sailors, in Omoku, Rivers state, at least fifteen killed; soldiers and militants exchanged fire 22 Feb in Ogoni area of Rivers state, casualties unconfirmed. Amid concerns of possible unrest in region, govt 15 Feb announced extension of Presidential Amnesty Program for former Niger Delta militants to 2018. Unknown militant group, Niger Delta Avengers, 21 Feb claimed it was responsible for blowing up Forcados terminal pipeline 14-16 Jan in Delta state; warned of further attacks on oil installations until govt addresses grievances. Federal anti-graft agency Economic and Financial Crimes Commission continued investigations; 21 Feb said former chief of defence staff Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh and former air force chief Air Marshal Olusola Amosu arrested and under interrogation over arms procurement fraud.

Rwanda

UN group of experts report leaked early month cites evidence of Rwandan military recruiting and training Burundian refugees to oust Burundian President Nkurunziza. U.S. envoy for Great Lakes region 11 Feb echoed report; President Kagame and FM Louise Mushikiwabo denounced allegations.

Somalia

Al-Shabaab upped terrorist attacks and recaptured locations across south-central Somalia: attacked and recaptured several towns in Lower Shabelle, Bay and Jubaland regions, including 8 Feb temporary occupation of Marka and 16 Feb attack on Afgoye, locations lost by Al-Shabaab in 2012. Local clan militia, AMISOM and Somali National Army regained control of some towns from Al-Shabaab in Middle Shabelle during month. Kenya govt claimed its 8 Feb airstrike killed Al-Shabaab Intelligence Chief Mohammed Karatey, denied by Al-Shabaab 18 Feb. Al-Shabaab 26 Feb launched complex attack involving gunmen accompanying vehicle-borne explosives on Mogadishu hotel popular with govt officials and MPs opposite presidency killing at least 30; Al-Shabaab suicide bomber and car bomb 28 Feb hit two locations in Baidoa, Bay region, killing at least 30; suicide bomber 2 Feb detonated on board passenger plane, only bomber killed. AMISOM troop contributing countries 28 Feb held summit in Djibouti to reinforce military operations against Al-Shabaab after months of setbacks. Two killed 1 Feb in anti-govt protest in Puntland’s Bari region; police same day raided home of Bari governor Gallan on suspicion of instigating protest.

South Sudan

Peace deal implementation made some progress: President Kiir 11 Feb appointed Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) leader Riek Machar first VP and began movement of govt forces 25km away from Juba, both in accordance with deal. Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) 23 Feb announced agreement on implementation of transitional security arrangements, including SPLA-IO forces arrival in Juba. Constitutional amendment process suspended 21 Feb with most contentious issues to be managed through “Boundaries Commission” called for by Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). At least eighteen killed 17 Feb in fighting inside UNMISS civilian protection camp in Malakal; armed civilians and individual govt forces subsequently burnt down much of camp which hosts tens of thousands.

Sudan

Govt 16 Feb accepted African Union High Implementation Panel (AUHIP) invitation to 16-18 March Addis Ababa meeting with armed opposition groups; same day announced indefinite extension of National Dialogue (ND). Govt “dry season” campaigns in “Two Areas” (S Kordofan and Blue Nile states) continued with aerial bombing and ground offensives involving Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and locally recruited militia. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) 17 Feb claimed it killed sixteen govt soldiers in attack, one SPLM-N member also killed; 21 Feb claimed it killed 200 govt soldiers during govt offensive in Blue Nile state; govt did not confirm military casualty figures, latter figure believed to be inflated. SPLM-N 26 Feb claimed it killed 23 govt soldiers during ambush of logistical convoy in S Kordofan state. Some 40 opposition representatives, including former ruling National Congress Party (NCP) notables Dr Ghazi Salahuddin Atabani and Al-Tayyib Mustafa, 23 Feb announced formation of Future Forces of Change (FFC) political coalition, largely comprising parties that quit National Dialogue process.

Uganda

President Museveni re-elected 18 Feb in mostly peaceful presidential elections with some 60% of vote; poll marred by irregularities including late delivery of voting materials to some constituencies in and around Kampala. Main opposition candidate and runner-up Kizza Besigye briefly arrested multiple times during and after vote amid protests against alleged govt vote-rigging; held under house arrest during week following election. Police reportedly searched Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party HQ 22 Feb, arrested eight FDC members for alleged plans to incite violence. Six killed 27 Feb in violence around western Bundigubyo town after dispute related to announcement of local election results.

Zimbabwe

Tensions worsened between rival factions of ruling Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) pitting First Lady Grace Mugabe against VP Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mnangagwa ally Prosecutor General Johannes Tomana arrested and charged 2 Feb with interfering in case of four defendants accused of trying to firebomb Grace Mugabe’s dairy farm late-Jan; accused are linked to military intelligence, traditional Mnangagwa allies. Grace Mugabe 12 Feb accused war veterans and security chiefs of disloyalty to President Mugabe, exacerbating tensions with security elements aligned to Mnangagwa. Extraordinary ZANU-PF politburo meeting 17 Feb failed to avert further fracturing within party; three Mnangagwa-aligned provincial party chairpersons rejected efforts to suspend them by rivals allied to first lady’s G40 faction; Grace Mugabe ally Mandi Chimene said War Veterans Minister Christopher Mutsvangwa – a key Mnangagwa ally – and his executive would be removed from leadership of National Liberation War Veterans Association. Police thwarted Mutsvangwa’s efforts to convene extraordinary meeting in Harare and 18 Feb violently suppressed war veterans’ gathering. Mugabe 19 Feb railed against factionalism, castigated Mutsvangwa and defended G40; reportedly curtailed first lady’s rallies in bid to appease security elements.

Asia

Afghanistan

Fighting continued to worsen ahead of proposed talks between govt and Taliban early March. Officials 20 Feb reported Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) pulled out of Helmand’s Musa Qala district after dozens of police and soldiers were killed across province mid-month. Several police killed in heavy fighting in Sangin district 14 Feb. Badakhshan provincial governor 18 Feb reported Jurm and Yamgan districts completely under Taliban control. MPs from Baghlan province 3 Feb said Sept 2015 deal between Dand-e-Ghori regional govt and Taliban led to increased insecurity in N Afghanistan and Baghlan. CEO Abdullah 5 Feb said continued NATO troop support for ANSF essential. U.S. National Intelligence Director 10 Feb warned Afghanistan at “serious risk of political breakdown” in 2016; UN 14 Feb reported 2015 saw highest number of civilian casualties recorded since 2009. Taliban splinter group 6 Feb released video calling new Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour puppet of Pakistani intelligence agency, declared nationwide military campaign against Mansour. Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) representatives from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and U.S. met in Islamabad 6 Feb, discussed Afghan peace process; Afghan officials 23 Feb said govt expects to meet with Taliban early March. At least 26 people killed in two separate suicide bombings 27 Feb in Kumar province and Kabul; Taliban claimed responsibility for Kabul attack. Five ICRC staff kidnapped 16 Feb in Ghazni province, released three days later. President Ghani 9 Feb approved mass media law seeking to promote freedom of speech, but prohibiting content contrary to Islam, offensive to other religions, or defamatory.

Bangladesh

Political atmosphere remained relatively calm, however govt continued to target opposition and dissenting voices. Fifteen opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami activists sentenced 2 Feb to life imprisonment over alleged political violence in 2013; over 100 BNP leaders including acting secretary general indicted mid Feb over violence during BNP blockade early 2015. BNP 12 Feb announced it will contest local elections 22 March, and hold party national council also in March. Awami League (AL) parliamentarians and PM Sheikh Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed Joy 6 Feb urged prosecutors to try Daily Star Editor Mahfuz for treason, after he publicly apologised for publishing stories about then-opposition leader Hasina’s alleged corruption; international press freedom organisations called on govt to end Mahfuz’s harassment. Editor of pro-BNP newspaper arrested in bomb blast case. Suspected Islamist militants 21 Feb fatally stabbed Hindu priest near Panchagarh; Islamic State claimed responsibility, however police said militant group Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen (JMB) behind attack, arrested four. Police launched several raids on suspected extremist hideouts, recovering large amounts of weapons and explosives. International Crimes Tribunal 2 Feb sentenced two to death for alleged crimes during 1971 independence war. Relations with Pakistan deteriorated further; Pakistan embassy official detained for several hours 1 Feb for “suspicious movement”; Pakistan responded by detaining Bangladeshi embassy official for same amount of time; ambassadors to both countries were summoned by foreign ministries following incident.

China/Japan

Japan Air Self-Defence Force 31 Jan launched new unit of ten F-15 fighters as part of efforts to defend Ryukyu/Nansei islands, which include disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Chinese navy 24 Feb commissioned advanced missile frigate to East Sea Fleet. Commander of U.S. Pacific Command late Jan said U.S. would defend Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in case of attack by China, in accordance with treaty obligations. Chinese media 15 Feb reported fleet of F-22 Raptors, suspected of belonging to U.S., had flown across ECS.

Fiji

Parliament 9 Feb endorsed suspension of three opposition National Federation Party MPs from legislature over auditing dispute. Opposition Sodelpa MPs walked out of parliament 11 Feb in protest over suspension and over proposed changes to parliament’s standing orders which it said ignored procedures. Govt declared state of emergency after worst recorded cyclone 20 Feb devastated parts of country, forced tens of thousands to flee homes; over 40 confirmed killed by end Feb.

India

Home Minister Rajnath Singh 19 Feb said govt ready for talks with Maoists “if they give up violence without any condition”. In continued clashes between security officials and Maoists, four Maoists reportedly killed 19 Feb in Taimara valley, Jharkhand; jawan killed in attack in Kanker district 12 Feb. Suspected Maoists reportedly blew up office block in Jharkhand’s Jamui district 15 Feb. Five killed in Jat protests demanding quotas in affirmative action system 20-22 Feb in Haryana state, more than ten million in Delhi left without water for three days after protestors sabotaged key canal. Nine students at Delhis Jawaharlal Nehru University charged with sedition after organising protest.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Indian home minister 3 Feb said govt would continue working with Pakistani investigation into 2 Jan attack on Pathankot air base in Indian Punjab; said Islamabad had to show “sincerity and take action against terrorists operating from its soil”. Anonymous security official 8 Feb reportedly said Pakistani investigation team found “nothing dubious” in homes, madrasas and phone records of Jaish-e-Mohammad members blamed by India for attack. Pakistan’s National Assembly Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs 1 Feb urged govt to avoid “encouraging” support to Kashmiri militants. Addressing Pakistan-administered Kashmir parliament 5 Feb, PM Sharif said solution “lies in dialogue” with India. Leader of militant group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba/Jamaat-ud-Dawa warned Sharif not to “betray the Kashmiri cause”. Nine reported killed including civilians in three-day gun battle between militants and security forces in India-controlled region after gunmen 21 Feb attacked bus carrying police. Five suspected militants and two soldiers killed during gun battle 13 Feb in Kupwara near Line of Control. One killed during clashes between Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) activists 13 Feb in Kotli district of Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Authorities imposed curfew in Indian-controlled areas 15 Feb amid calls by separatist groups to protest death of teenage boy and women during demonstrations against Indian rule.

Indonesia

Following 14 Jan terror attack, govt drawing up plans for tougher anti-terrorism laws. Australia late Feb issued updated travel advisory warning terrorists could be in “advanced stages” of preparing attacks in Indonesia. Amnesty International annual report criticised govt failure to protect religious minorities; Human Rights Watch 11 Feb reported that local authorities in Subang, West Java have banned activities of Ahmadiyah religious community.

Korean Peninsula

DPRK 7 Feb announced launch of earth observation satellite from Sohae launch site, violating UNSC ban on ballistic missile tests. Rocket used has potential range of 12,000km, U.S. reported twice payload of previous rocket test. Launch prompted international condemnation including from UNSC. U.S. 25 Feb submitted draft resolution to UNSC including “unprecedented sanctions” against DPRK, with vote scheduled for 1 March; reported China and U.S. agreed on strong and united international response to Pyongyang’s provocations. ROK 10 Feb ordered shutdown of Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), reporting intelligence suggesting 70% of DPRK’s KIC earnings funnelled into nuclear weapons program. DPRK retaliated expelling all ROK nationals, freezing ROK firms’ assets, announcing plans to put complex under military control; also vowed to disconnect its three hotlines with south. China 17 Feb proposed simultaneous denuclearisation talks and replacement of existing armistice agreement with peace treaty; ROK, U.S. said progress on denuclearisation must come first. U.S. intelligence chief 9 Feb reported DPRK has expanded Yongbyon nuclear enrichment facility and restarted plutonium production reactor, could obtain plutonium within weeks; also stated low yield of DPRK’s 6 Jan hydrogen bomb inconsistent with successful detonation of a thermal nuclear device. U.S. imposed new sanctions against DPRK, also stepped up military deployment to ROK. ROK and U.S. began talks on deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system; Chinese FM 12 Feb voiced concerns, saying THAAD exceeds defence needs of Korean Peninsula; U.S. stressed it does not aim to undermine Chinese security interests. ROK media 10 Feb reported DPRK had executed Army Chief of Staff Ri Yong-gil. ROK intelligence reported Kim Jong-un ordered intensification of preparations for terrorist attacks against ROK, urged lawmakers to pass new counter-terrorism bill.

Myanmar

New five-year legislative term commenced 1 Feb with convening of lower house, and upper house 3 Feb. National League for Democracy (NLD)’s choice of speaker and deputy speaker elected unopposed in both houses: both positions in upper house filled by non-Burmans, while both deputy speakers are non-NLD members. First session of joint Union Legislature 8 Feb decided presidential election process would not begin until 17 March, two weeks before end of current administration’s term 30 March; later brought date forward to 10 March. Lower house 5 Feb appointed former Speaker Shwe Mann – a key ally of Suu Kyi and third most powerful general in old regime – as chair of Legal Affairs and Special Issues Commission. Suu Kyi held third meeting with Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing 17 Feb; reportedly discussed rule of law and peace process. Local media 13 Feb reported Min Aung Hlaing and his deputy extended their terms for five more years. Facebook 1 Feb removed video posted three days earlier by controversial nationalist monk Wirathu dramatising rape and murder of Rakhine girl that sparked deadly anti-Muslim violence in 2012; video had prompted strong criticism from senior NLD member and warning from Ministry of Religious Affairs that it could lead to court action. Further round of clashes erupted between Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Shan State Army-South (SSA-South) armed groups in N Shan state 7 Feb, displacing several thousand civilians. Meeting of Shan State Joint Action Committee (committee of armed groups and political parties in Shan state) agreed 14 Feb that Shan State Progress Party (SSPP)/SSA-North should mediate talks between belligerents. Lower house 17 Feb discussed emergency motion calling for immediate ceasefire and humanitarian assistance; deputy defence minister reported Myanmar armed forces had begun military intervention to end fighting in area.

Nepal

Five-month long blockade on essential supplies imposed by protesting Madhesi parties and groups along Indian border lifted 6 Feb following differences on strategy between parties comprising United Madhesi Democratic Front (UDMF) and increasing protester fatigue. Humanitarian situation eased despite fuel supplies remaining partially disrupted due to thriving black market. Govt began downsizing deployment of security forces across southern Tarai districts. Disputes regarding contentious constitutional provisions – especially key Madhesi demand related to demarcating new federal provinces – remained unresolved. Cabinet 18 Feb announced formation of political committee to discuss provincial boundaries; UDMF rejected decision, blaming lack of prior consultation on committee’s terms of reference. PM KP Oli visited New Delhi 19-23 Feb to help ease bilateral tensions following India’s criticisms of constitution-writing process and unofficial Indian support for blockade; Indian PM Modi reemphasized need for consensus and dialogue to ensure new constitution’s success. Former PM and Nepali Congress (NC) President Sushil Koirala died 9 February; NC general convention to elect new party president scheduled 3-6 March.

Pakistan

Continued attacks against security personnel raised concerns that extremist outfits have regrouped and operating freely; govt early Feb said terrorists being funded externally by “hostile intelligence agencies” to foment instability. Intelligence Bureau head 11 Feb said Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has ties with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) extremist groups and is coordinating with Islamic State (IS), which is growing in country; Foreign Ministry and Interior Minister denied, said IS has no organised presence in Pakistan. Army 12 Feb reported arrest of 97 suspected al-Qaeda and LeJ militants in Karachi. Attacks in Balochistan included eleven killed 6 Feb in TTP-claimed suicide bombing near military convoy in Quetta; ten members of Balochistan Liberation Army reported killed, twelve arrested 14 Feb in Sibi district raid. U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan’s Paktika province 1 Feb reportedly killed eighteen TTP militants. In Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), TTP’s Jamaat-ul-Ahrar faction claimed responsibility for two attacks in Mohmand Agency 18 Feb, nine tribal police killed. In other militant attacks, Awami National Party Swabi district councillor and her two children killed in Peshawar 10 Feb, TTP suspected; three police killed 10-12 Feb in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Former Afghan governor Fazlullah Wahidi kidnapped 12 Feb in Islamabad, later freed by police; policeman killed at routine checkpoint search 12 Feb. Punjab Counter-Terrorism Department 17 Feb reported seven suspected TTP and LeJ militants killed in Sheikhupura district; polio worker wounded, two police killed same day in two attacks in Lahore. Country-wide protests 29 Feb following execution of Mumtaz Qadri for 2011 murder of Punjab governor Salman Taseer. International Federation of Journalists reported Pakistan fourth deadliest country in world for journalists in 2015.

Philippines

Congress went on recess 3 Feb without passing Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), meaning that bill, which is required to implement 2013 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) through creation of autonomous Bangsamoro region, will not be passed before May elections. Chief peace negotiator criticised legislators’ “indifference” and “chronic absenteeism” in the 16th Congress. Following talks in Malaysia 10-11 Feb, govt and MILF issued joint statement expressing disappointment but agreeing to extend ceasefire until March 2017. MILF chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal warned of frustration and anxiety within MILF; MILF leader Murad Ebrahim 18 Feb also expressed commitment to peace, urged patience and calm among Bangsamoro communities. Third Party Monitoring Team (TPMT) 26 Feb said that Jan 2015 Mamasapano incident, in which 44 police commandos and eighteen MILF were killed, not only halted passage of BBL but also may have made extremism more attractive to young Muslims. Military 10 Feb reported arrest of top Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) militant Hassan Indal alias Abu Hazam west of Cotabato City. BIFF suspected of responsibility for roadside bombs in Maguindanao killing four people 17 Feb and one soldier 20 Feb. Six suspected BIFF fighters reported killed in clash with military 16 Feb. MILF 25 Feb announced it was repositioning its fighters in south to avoid “mis-encounters” with army fighting BIFF. Military reported 42 suspected militants claiming links to Islamic State killed during clashes in Lanao del Sur province late month; three soldiers also killed. Military reported clash between Abu Sayyaf Group and Moro National Liberation Front in Sulu 20 Feb, two killed. Six policemen killed in attack by suspected New People’s Army (NPA) rebels in Cagayan 16 Feb. Military reported NPA leader shot dead by soldiers in Bukidnon province 23 Feb.

South China Sea

Media reported 16 Feb satellite images indicated China has deployed radar system and two batteries of missile launchers on Woody Island in Paracels, over which Vietnam also claims sovereignty; U.S. and Taiwan confirmed deployment, which Washington said increased regional tensions. Chinese FM said deployment “limited, necessary and defensive”. U.S. President Obama 15-16 Feb hosted first U.S.-ASEAN leaders’ summit; joint statement emphasised commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes by legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to threat or use of force; Vietnamese PM Dung called for greater U.S. involvement against activities changing SCS status quo, urged U.S. to help curb construction of artificial islands and militarisation. Chinese media 2 Feb reported satellite images from Aug and Dec 2015 suggesting Vietnam in process of reclaiming Nanhua reef in Spratlys to build two airstrips; images from Dec show reclaimed area likely destroyed by Typhoon Melor. U.S. think-tank 22 Feb revealed satellite images showing possible deployment of a high-resolution radar on a Spratly island.

Sri Lanka

President Sirisena 4 Feb reaffirmed commitment to implement UN Human Rights Council (HRC) resolution, however govt position on role of foreign experts/judges remains unclear, despite visit by UNHCHR Zeid 6-9 Feb. Govt 12 Feb launched two-month consultation process on transitional justice mechanisms in Jaffna; following late Jan visit, UN Special Rapporteur on transitional justice Pablo De Grieff issued statement 10 Feb urging longer consultation period and major push to build govt capacity and develop coherent strategy for implementing HRC resolution. Govt’s 16 Feb appointment of veteran and pro-devolution Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP, Sirisena’s party and part of national govt) politician Reginal Cooray as Northern Province governor widely welcomed by Tamil politicians. Former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka 9 Feb appointed to fill vacant United National Party (UNP, second party in national govt) seat in parliament; decision challenged in court as he was not on UNP list at Aug elections as required by law; Fonseka made minister of regional development 25 Feb. New Attorney General Jayantha Jayasuriya sworn in 11 Feb amid widespread criticism of office’s reported blockage of criminal prosecutions and releases of Tamil detainees. MPs from “joint opposition” Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and United People Freedom Alliance protested in parliament 9 Feb after speaker’s refusal to allow them to sit separately from SLFP. IMF 11 Feb confirmed govt had requested additional support to cover increasingly severe balance of payments difficulties, amid rising opposition to proposed trade deal with India.

Thailand

Critics across political divide criticised draft constitution released late Jan, claiming it is undemocratic; National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) officials suggested critics could face legal consequences if they sow public confusion. PM Prayuth 3 Feb said election will be held in 2017, even if the public rejects the draft in a referendum. Deputy PM 9 Feb told reporters that if draft constitution is rejected in referendum by narrow margin, govt could make minor amendments and then promulgate it. Appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA) 15 Feb rejected clauses of draft that changed balloting process and placed greater restrictions on who could become PM; endorsed military-dominated “crisis panel” to step in during moments of national crisis and entirely appointed senate. Cabinet 18 Feb asked Constitution Drafting Committee to ensure NCPO retains governing authority, even after general election and empaneling of civilian government, citing need to preserve peace and order. Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra in series of international media interviews late Feb criticised draft constitution and NCPO. Prayuth attended U.S.-ASEAN summit in California mid-Jan; U.S. President Obama urged quick return to civilian rule. Govt announced merger of Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre, interagency unit charged with coordination of social, political and economic initiatives in southernmost provinces, with army-dominated Internal Security Operations Command. Ongoing violence in Deep South included: roadside IED blast 12 Feb killed two soldiers in Krong Pinang district, Yala; soldier killed in IED attack in Bacho district 17 Feb; car bomb wounded twelve including seven police in Pattani’s Muang district 27 Feb.

Europe & Central Asia

Armenia

Continued increase in military cooperation between Russia and Armenia: Russia reportedly provided $200mn loan for purchase of Russian arms; Russia and Armenia 23 Feb signed cooperation plan and agreement on unification of anti-aircraft warfare systems. Russian military 20 Feb said it had reinforced its base at Erebuni airport with jets and helicopter. Rights groups said arrest of dissident Vardges Gaspari on charges including insulting police politically motivated.

Azerbaijan

FM Elmar Mammadyarov 3 Feb said Azerbaijan holding talks with Russian and Turkish officials in bid to mend their deteriorated bilateral relations.

Belarus

EU 15 Feb lifted most individual sanctions imposed over democracy and human rights, citing “positive trend”, but leaving in place some sanctions and arms embargo and calling for further progress. UN rights envoy early month said “dismal state of human rights has remained unchanged” in country.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Following concerted international pressure, Republika Srpska President Dodik 8 Feb announced controversial planned referendum challenging authority of state judiciary to be postponed. Bosnia submitted formal EU membership application 15 Feb.

Cyprus

Talks between Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders continued; referendum on reunification expected to take place after Greek Cypriot elections, scheduled for 22 May. Meeting between Turkish Cypriot leaders and Turkish govt 8 Feb failed to resolve ongoing dispute over water distribution, threatening to weaken ruling Turkish Cypriot coalition govt chaired by lead negotiator Mustafa Akıncı. Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 21 Feb reiterated Ankara’s support for settlement in Cyprus, predicted agreement would be reached by June 2016.

Georgia

Georgian official reported latest round of talks between Russia and Georgia, initially planned for Feb, postponed to mid-March. NATO Sec Gen Stoltenberg 11 Feb reported Georgia making progress in moving toward NATO membership thanks to reforms. Georgian opposition party leader Aleksi Petriashvili 26 Feb injured after being attacked and shot while visiting Tbilisi cemetery.

Kazakhstan

Amid falling oil prices and depreciating currency, ruling Nur Otan party late Jan presented list of candidates for 20 March parliamentary elections; list includes only 33 of party’s 83 previous MPs, and including sportsmen, singers and businessmen. PM Masimov and President Nazarbayev 6 Feb met Turkish PM Davutoğlu in Astana, declaring importance of relations with Ankara despite Russian-Turkish tensions. In telephone call with Nazarbaev 8 Feb, President Putin blamed Turkey for tensions. Ethnic tensions erupted into unrest in Zhambyl region in south as crowd stoned houses of ethnic Turks and demanded lynching of ethnic Turkish suspected of killing child during botched burglary; special forces deployed to disperse protesters. Amnesty International annual report warned of worsening human rights situation in the country.

Kosovo

Continued efforts to end political crisis unsuccessful, including 8 Feb meeting between ruling coalition and opposition with EU and U.S. envoys; opposition refused to attend apart from Alliance for the Future of Kosovo leader Ramush Haradinaj, who called for snap elections. Tens of thousands of opposition supporters protested peacefully 17 Feb calling for Aug 2015 agreements with Serbia on association of Serb-majority municipalities, and with Montenegro on border demarcation, to be scrapped, and for govt to step down. Opposition again disrupted parliament 19 Feb, with opposition MPs setting off tear gas in chamber, nine arrested; also set off tear gas during sessions 24 and 26 Feb, when FM and former PM Hashim Thaci was elected president. Opposition supporters protesting outside parliament clashed with police 26 Feb.

Kyrgyzstan

Protests erupted in Naryn town 27 Jan against proposed cuts to allowances paid to residents/workers of mountainous areas. Protests over state allowances, rising electricity tariffs and introduction of mandatory house and car insurance held in Kara-Jygach, Jalalabad province 10 Feb and in Talas 22 Feb. Osh regional police said fifteen women detained 24 Feb on suspicion of being Hizb ut-Tahrir members.

Moldova

Jan anti-govt protests dwindled, however protests 9 Feb disrupted re-election of new Supreme Court Justice head, accusing him of corruption; protest leaders continue to call for fresh elections. Romania demanded reforms to justice and banking systems and anti-corruption measures as condition of $65mn loan to Moldova. Parliament 25 Feb voted to keep country on pro-European path, streamline prosecution service including with anti-corruption office; MPs from opposition pro-Russia Socialist Party walked out of session. Grenade thrown at Central Bank governor’s home 1 Feb, no casualties, assailant unknown.

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

U.S. intelligence chief 9 Feb warned Azerbaijan’s military build-up and deteriorating economy raise risk of conflict escalating. Azerbaijan and Armenia continued to trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Baku reported multiple deaths, including: Azerbaijani soldier killed in clash near Armenian border 3 Feb, three Armenian soldiers also allegedly killed; at least five Armenian soldiers killed 12 Feb in clash near N-K. Armenia and N-K de facto officials refuted claims; N-K officials reported Azerbaijani forces 12 Feb killed civilian, and one N-K soldier killed 18 Feb. At OSCE-organised seminar 18 Feb Armenian official said country will move to more active deterrence in dealing with Azerbaijani troops in N-K. OSCE monitoring mission of N-K and Azerbaijan contact line 18 Feb reported no ceasefire violations.

North Macedonia

Parliament 23 Feb voted to postpone elections planned for 24 April until 5 June, following EU and U.S. assessment 21 Feb saying conditions not yet in place for credible elections citing need to clean up electoral roll, agree on media reforms, take measures to separate state and political party activities. Opposition had threatened to withdraw ministers from govt and boycott elections if they were not postponed. Special Prosecution office set up to investigate high-level corruption 12 Feb announced several former ministers and senior officials suspected of organising election fraud in 2013. Constitutional Court 24 Feb voted to discuss annulling provision in law that bars president from granting pardons, seen by opposition as ploy to pardon those announced as suspects by Special Prosecution; decision prompted protests outside court.

Russia (Internal)

Opposition and rights defenders demanded Kremlin reaction after Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov 31 Jan posted video showing Russian opposition figures Mikhail Kasyanov and Vladimir Kara-Murza in sniper’s crosshairs. In Russian TV interview 27 Feb Kadyrov said he would stand down when his current term expires in April. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for 15 Feb car explosion attack which killed two police officers and one civilian and injured over a dozen in Daghestan’s Derbent district. Some 300 protested arrest of Salafi imam in Derbent 10 Feb. Up to 5,000 protested 1 Feb after officials closed Salafi mosque in Khasavyurt; up to 15,000 gathered for Friday prayer 5 Feb in city’s eastern mosque to discuss Salafi activist arrests and closing of Salafi mosques across Dagestan. Caucasian Knot website reported 258 victims of NC conflict during 2015, half 2014 level. Documentary broadcast on Russian state TV 10 Feb showed Kadyrov saying Chechen agents have infiltrated IS ranks in Syria to gather intelligence; Kremlin did not confirm.

Tajikistan

Russia’s Central Military Command chief late Jan said country’s 201st air base near Kulyab to be downgraded from division to brigade, allegedly to increase mobility. Supreme Court 9 Feb started hearings in trial of thirteen leading members of Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) accused of attempting overthrow govt Sept 2015. Lower house 10 Feb approved 22 May referendum date on constitutional amendment to allow President Rahmon to retain presidency beyond 2020 and decrease lower age limit. During fifth session of EU-Tajik Cooperation Council 16 Feb, EU confirmed $251mn development aid to Tajikistan until 2020. U.S. govt’s Counterterrorism Partnership Fund reportedly earmarked $50mn in assistance to Central Asia, named Tajikistan special partner. Human Rights Watch 17 Feb denounced crackdown on political opposition.

Turkmenistan

Late-Jan offer by visiting Russian FM Lavrov to assist with protecting Turkmen-Afghan border reportedly rebuffed amid ongoing spat over gas and concerns about Caspian Sea. Govt reported to be considering constitutional changes that would allow President Berdymukhamedov to rule for life. Amnesty International annual report criticised repression, continuing torture and rights violations.

Türkiye

Car bomb attack 17 Feb in Ankara killed some 29 high ranking military officials and civil servants; govt 18 Feb blamed attack on armed wing of Syrian affiliate of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG), however radical Kurdish nationalist group Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), a PKK offshoot, 18 Feb claimed responsibility for attack. Incident further weakened prospects for talks to resume between Ankara and PKK. Violence continued in SE despite Ankara’s declaration of successful conclusion of operations in Silopi and Cizre towns 28 Jan and 11 Feb; observers fear fighting will worsen in March. Some 84 security forces and at least 27 PKK militants killed in clashes during month including Ankara bombing. PM Davutoğlu 5 Feb unveiled anti-terror plan calling for aid to those displaced by fighting, reconstruction of devastated communities and economic assistance to SE, but rejecting engagement with pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP) or PKK; plan instead calls for consultations with local Islamist Kurdish parties and NGOs, small Kurdish nationalist parties unaligned with HDP or PKK, and constitutional reform to deliver Kurdish rights demands. Erdoğan 17 Feb signalled he could push for referendum on strengthening his office’s powers following 16 Feb decision of main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to leave committee tasked with drafting new constitution. Turkey started shelling YPG targets in N Syria after group began gaining ground against Turkey-backed rebels late-Jan. Responding to new wave of Syrian refugees fleeing Aleppo fighting, Turkish authorities began building makeshift camps on Syrian side of border. EU 3 Feb finalised €3bn fund to assist Turkey with some 2.7mn Syrian refugees it is hosting in exchange for strengthened Turkish efforts to prevent them travelling on to Europe.

Ukraine

Upsurge of artillery exchanges, growing questions from all sides about Minsk’s viability, and further undermining of President Poroshenko’s standing all cast doubt on progress of reform agenda in Kyiv and implementation of Minsk agreements. Military reported escalated fighting in east, including three Ukrainian soldiers killed mid-month, international monitors voicing concern over increased shelling in recent weeks. Separatist leader Denis Pushilin 14 Feb said separatists would push ahead with integration of their republics into Russia as a “counterweight” to Ukraine’s implementation of Minsk; other separatist sources report that unification of the two separatist enclaves is again under preliminary discussion. French and German FMs travelled to Ukraine 22-23 Feb to call for faster reforms and implementation of Minsk agreements. Political chaos in Kyiv intensified;  16 Feb no-confidence vote in govt and PM Yatsenyuk failed, however episode widely seen as undermining President Poroshenko’s credibility, who hours before vote had publicly urged Yatsenyuk to resign. After vote, two fractions, Yuliya Timoshenko’s Batkivshchyna and Samopomich, both announced plans to leave governing coalition. Poroshenko requested resignation of controversial Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin. Economy and Trade Minister Aivaras Abromavicius resigned 3 Feb, claiming that close adviser of Poroshenko had tried to impose upon him deputy ministers who were not qualified; ten leading Western ambassadors issued joint statement expressing dismay at resignation. IMF voiced concern at “slow progress in improving governance and fighting corruption”, casting doubt on prospects of IMF-supported program. Power struggles continued in separatist areas, with senior Donetsk leader Alexander Khodakovsky coming out in open opposition to Alexander Zakharchenko and another separatist leader.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Negotiators in Havana scheduled to resume talks 2 March to address pending issues on termination of conflict, ahead of 23 March deadline for final agreement. National Liberation Army (ELN) 14-17 Feb carried out some 35 attacks, prompting increased attacks by armed forces. President Santos 8 Feb stated ELN can either support peace or face intensified military response. Govt 18 Feb suspended further visits to Colombia by FARC negotiators, stating they violated terms of travel to country from talks in Cuba including ban on contact with civilians, after FARC negotiators met with local community in town of Conejo, reportedly to provide updates on progress of peace talks. FARC 10 Feb said it would no longer recruit children. U.S. President Obama 4 Feb announced new 2017 “Peace Colombia” aid package to support country while it seeks to consolidate peace with FARC. Police 29 Feb arrested former President Uribe’s son Santiago in Medellín on charges of murder and conspiracy; accused of setting up “Twelve Apostles” paramilitary group in 1990s, Santiago denied any involvement with group.

Guatemala

Nine current and former tax revenue agency (SAT) officers arrested 12 Feb after being charged with corruption, in joint operation carried out by International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala and local prosecutors. Representatives and members of firm Aceros de Guatemala also arrested in first corruption allegations made against large private business. Constitutional Court 15 Feb cleared way to enforce limitations for private financing of political campaigns and political propaganda in open media. New Congress President Mario Taracena 11 Feb declared files would be disclosed for public scrutiny about contracts and salaries of Congress staff, in support of investigations into “ghost jobs”. Trials of a former military officer and a former military village commissioner started 1 Feb on charges of using sexual violence as “instrument of war” in early 1980s during civil war, first time this type of crime against humanity brought to court.

Haiti

Both houses of parliament, under auspices of Organization of American States (OAS), 5 Feb signed agreement to avert further escalation of political crisis following late-Jan indefinite postponement of presidential elections. Agreement stipulates parliament elect interim president for four-month term; presidential and legislative runoff be held 24 April; and winner of presidential race to be installed on 14 May for five-year term. President Martelly stepped down 7 Feb, parliament 14 Feb elected senate head Jocelerme Privert interim president. Privert 16 Feb opened public consultations to appoint new PM and form consensus govt; 19 Feb announced six candidates running to lead next administration.

Mexico