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Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?
Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary
From Embassy Row to the Congolese Street
From Embassy Row to the Congolese Street
Report 188 / Africa

Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?

Renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could nurture communal resentments, exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics and weaken national cohesion.

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Executive Summary

Although it should provide development opportunities, renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents a real threat to stability in a still vulnerable post-conflict country. Exploration has begun, but oil prospecting is nurturing old resentments among local communities and contributing to border tensions with neighbouring countries. If oil reserves are confirmed in the east, this would exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics in the Kivus. An upsurge in fighting since the start of 2012, including the emergence of a new rebellion in North Kivu and the resumption of armed groups’ territorial expansion, has further complicated stability in the east, which is the new focus for oil exploration. New oil reserves could also create new centres of power and question Katanga’s (DRC’s traditional economic hub) political influence. Preventive action is needed to turn a real threat to stability into a genuine development opportunity.

Potential oil reserves straddle the country’s borders with Uganda, Angola and possibly other countries and could rekindle old sensitivities once exploration commences. In the context of a general oil rush in Central and East Africa, the lack of clearly defined borders, especially in the Great Lakes region, poses significant risk for maintaining regional stability.

Clashes between the Congolese and Ugandan armies in 2007 led to the Ngurdoto Accords establishing a system for regulating border oil problems, but Kinshasa’s reluctance to implement this agreement and the collapse of the Ugandan-Congolese dialogue threaten future relations between the two countries. In the west, failure to find an amicable solution to an Angolan-Congolese dispute about offshore concessions has worsened relations between the two countries and led to the violent expulsion from Angola of Congolese nationals. Instead of investing in the resolution of border conflicts with its neighbours before beginning oil exploration, the Congolese government is ignoring the problem, failing to dialogue with Uganda and officially claiming an extension of its maritime borders with Angola.

The abduction in 2011 of an oil employee in the Virunga Park, in the Kivus, is a reminder that exploration is taking place in disputed areas where ethnic groups are competing for territorial control and the army and militias are engaged in years of illegally exploiting natural resources. Given that the Kivus are high-risk areas, oil discovery could aggravate the conflict. Moreover, confirmation of oil reserves in the Central Basin and the east could feed secessionist tendencies in a context of failed decentralisation and financial discontent between the central government and the provinces.

Poor governance has been the hallmark of the oil sector since exploration resumed in the east and west of the country. Even with only one producing oil company, the black gold is the main source of government revenue and yet, with exploration in full swing, oil sector reform is very slow. Instead of creating clear procedures, a transparent legal framework and robust institutions, previous governments have behaved like speculators, in a way that is reminiscent of practices in the mining sector. Reflecting the very degraded business climate, they have allocated and reallocated concessions and often acted without considering the needs of the local people and international commitments, especially regarding environmental protection.

The official division of exploration blocks includes natural parks, some of which are World Heritage Sites. It also directly threatens the resources of local populations in some areas. Initiatives to promote financial and contractual transparency are contradicted by the lack of transparency in allocating concessions. The state’s failure to adequately regulate the diverging and potentially conflicting interests of companies and poor communities is clearly causing local resentment, which could easily flare up into local violence that could be manipulated.

In a context of massive poverty, weak state, poor governance and regional insecurity, an oil rush will have a strong destabilising effect unless the government adopts several significant steps regionally and nationally to avert such a devastating scenario. Regionally, it should draw on the close support of the African Union (AU) and the World Bank Group to design a management model for cross-border reserves and help facilitate a border demarcation program. Nationally, the government should implement oil sector reform, declare a moratorium on the exploration of insecure areas, especially in the east where the situation is again deteriorating, until these territories are made secure, and involve the provinces in the main management decisions concerning this resource.

Kinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels, 11 July 2012

Philippe Kadima Cintu crosses the River Congo in a "pirogue" motorised canoe while doing field research in Kisangani in the Democratic Republic of Congo. CRISIS GROUP
Impact Note / Africa

From Embassy Row to the Congolese Street

Six months into research fellowships made possible by Canadian philanthropist and Crisis Group Trustee Frank Giustra, we catch up with three young experts now working with our Europe, Africa and Middle East teams. Here we interview Philippe Kadima Cintu, who is focusing on his own country, DR Congo.

Philippe Kadima Cintu used to be busy with diplomatic niceties as part of one of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s main embassies in Africa. Now he is rediscovering his native country as a Giustra Fellow with International Crisis Group – meeting and interviewing everybody as he crisscrosses the country by plane, bus and motorised canoe.

“In my old job, I dealt with high-level politicians, VIPs. I didn’t have time to go to the field or speak to people on the ground”, Philippe said. “Now I speak with everyone, humanitarians, soldiers, civilians, local leaders, refugees. It changed my perspective on how the country is being managed, how to end poverty, how to bring peace, how to bring the country together. I’ve experienced the grassroots. I see things differently”.

Philippe is one of three Giustra Fellows who joined International Crisis Group six months ago and now support all aspects of Crisis Group’s mission to prevent deadly conflict, with a focus on how conflict causes crises of refugees and migration. The program, made possible by a $1 million gift by Canadian philanthropist and Crisis Group Trustee Frank Giustra, aims to give first-hand experience to young experts in the countries where Crisis Group works and to build capacity through training and mentorship of Crisis Group’s method of research and analysis.

DR Congo’s past and present conflicts mean this vast country of 70 million people has at least three million refugees and IDPs, and Philippe is certain that understanding their problems is vital to have a full picture of domestic politics. With elections due to be held before the end of 2017, what happens to them is a constant worry as displaced people may have trouble accessing their voting stations, armed groups prevent the displaced from returning home and state protection is often weak.

We speak to more people than in other jobs, whether it’s for fifteen minutes or two hours... I realised how much work lay behind Crisis Group reports, and also how they change people’s minds.

Based in the Africa Program’s eastern hub in Nairobi, Philippe has now been on three research trips to DR Congo in his new role, each for more than two weeks. He began by working with the senior analyst covering the country, meeting contacts in the capital. Then they went together to the troubled, resource-rich region of Katanga.

“I learned how to do interviews. You don’t go with a questionnaire, you just have a conversation with people, you allow them to express themselves. That way you get the necessary information you need to make an analysis. It was very useful”, Philippe said. “Sometimes you make notes in front of them, when they are very comfortable. Sometimes I just listen and make notes later”.

On his last trip he travelled alone to Kisingani to study the work of the Electoral Commission. He quickly found himself meeting many more people than just the head of the commission in the province. In the end, the list included the provincial government, ministers, members of parliament, political parties, civil society activists working on elections, NGOs, the UN, security people, the police and the army.

“It seems to me that we speak to more people than in other jobs, whether it’s for fifteen minutes or two hours. You quickly learn who is interesting and who isn’t. I realised how much work lay behind Crisis Group reports, and also how they change people’s minds”, Philippe said. “For instance, I felt different when I spoke to the governor. When you share your knowledge, when you think through what should be done together, you really are part of an exchange. People are more accepting when you share your point of view like that”.

We got feedback about our articles from politicians saying what we were doing was helping avoid violence.

For instance, when he was meeting another leading Kisingani official, he realised that his interviewee was only meeting officials from far-away powers like the U.S., the UN, Belgium and others. “I said, didn’t you ever think of speaking to Africans from the African Union?” Philippe remembered. “They said, no, we never thought of that. We should. Now you see them talking to Africans”.

Philippe’s persuasion is not all talking, as he has contributed to more than ten reports, commentaries and op-eds published by Crisis Group on DR Congo in the past six months. He has also enriched the Central Africa team, helping with internal training on international policy formulation and post-field trip debriefs. He believes that one article in particular, Course contre la montre (A Race Against Time) published on the prominent website Jeune Afrique, was influential in promoting dialogue and persuading the Congolese not to take their anger onto the streets where events could run out of control.

“We got feedback about our articles from politicians saying what we were doing was helping avoid violence”, Philippe said. “And after the Jeune Afrique article, I got a call from the assistant of the police commissioner, telling me: ‘The points you make are really right’”.

Philippe believes his experiences so far are improving his capacity for analysis, partly because his former government work was mainly about getting people to do things as quickly as possible from a list of instructions.

“I am learning how to create a message. I’ll be a better adviser in future”, he said. “Sometimes a lot of people can’t do much, but a small organisation like Crisis Group, with just 110 people all told, can be seen as a big organisation by the people I deal with. I couldn’t believe that a small group can do such big stuff”.

Philippe Kadima Cintu, a Congolese national, is proficient in French, English, Portuguese, Lingala and Swahili. He previously worked at the DR Congo’s Embassy in South Africa and in Burundi as part of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR). Philippe received his degree in International Relations from the University of Pretoria and his post-graduate diploma in Humanitarian and Development Management from the University of Wits at Johannesburg.