Report / Africa 18 juillet 2012 9 minutes Mali : éviter l’escalade Les demandes d'intervention militaire extérieure se multiplient au Mali mais elles risqueraient de plonger l'Etat, déjà en grave difficulté, dans le chaos. Share Facebook Twitter Courriel Linkedin Whatsapp Enregistrer Imprimer Download PDF Full Report Also available in English Français English Synthèse En un peu plus de deux mois, le régime politique malien a été anéanti. Alors que le 17 janvier 2012, une rébellion armée chassait les forces maliennes de la partie septentrionale du pays, le 22 mars, un coup d’Etat déposait le président Amadou Toumani Touré (ATT). Ces deux épisodes ont poussé le Mali dans une crise sans précédent qui menace les équilibres politiques et la sécurité dans la région. Une intervention armée extérieure comporte néanmoins des risques considérables. La communauté internationale doit privilégier le dialogue pour préserver les chances d’une sortie de crise politique. La Communauté économique des Etats d’Afrique de l’Ouest (Cedeao) doit rééquilibrer ses efforts de médiation pour ne pas aggraver les fractures déjà profondes de la société malienne. Renforcer la crédibilité des institutions de transition pour remettre l’Etat et ses forces de sécurité sur pied est la première des priorités. Enfin, des mesures sécuritaires concertées au niveau régional doivent être prises pour que le Nord-Mali ne devienne pas, sous l’effet d’actions de groupes originellement étrangers, un nouveau front de la guerre contre le terrorisme. A Bamako, la capitale, le cadre de transition élaboré par la Cedeao en accord avec la junte composée d’officiers subalternes dirigés par le capitaine Amadou Haya Sanogo n’a pas permis de reconstituer un ordre politique incontesté. La junte s’est constitué une base sociale en capitalisant sur la colère d’une frange importante de la population envers le régime d’ATT auquel elle associe le président intérimaire Dioncounda Traoré, qui présidait jusque-là l’Assemblée nationale. Ce dernier a fait l’objet d’une agression physique, qui aurait pu lui être fatale, par les partisans des putschistes dans l’enceinte même du Palais présidentiel le 21 mai 2012. Evacué en France pour des soins, il n’était toujours pas rentré à Bamako mi-juillet. La déstructuration de l’appareil militaire et la faiblesse des autorités civiles de transition incarnées par le gouvernement du Premier ministre Cheick Modibo Diarra, en passe d’être recomposé, ne permettent pas d’envisager à court terme une restauration par les forces maliennes de l’intégrité territoriale qui ne soit pas porteuse de risques de graves dérapages et d’enlisement. Au Nord, le groupe nationaliste touareg qui a lancé la rébellion, le Mouvement national de libération de l’Azawad (MNLA), s’est fait déborder par un groupe armé islamiste, Ançar Eddine, dirigé par Iyad Ag Ghali, un chef touareg initialement marginalisé lors des discussions ayant conduit à la constitution du MNLA. En s’imposant au Nord, Ançar Eddine a tissé un modus vivendi, sinon un pacte, avec une variété d’acteurs armés préexistants : des milices arabes et touareg soutenues ces dernières années par le régime de Bamako et, surtout, avec le groupe al-Qaeda au Maghreb islamique (AQMI), auteur de multiples rapts et assassinats d’Occidentaux au Mali, au Niger et en Mauritanie, d’attaques contre les armées de la région et impliqué dans les trafics criminels transfrontaliers. Le Nord-Mali pourrait bien devenir un vaste espace d’accueil de combattants jihadistes de toutes origines. Considéré pendant vingt ans comme un des modèles de progrès démocratique en Afrique subsaharienne, le Mali est aujourd’hui menacé de déliquescence. La perspective d’une sortie de crise rapide s’éloigne à mesure que se consolide un régime islamiste dur au Nord et que se perpétue un sentiment de vide politique, institutionnel et sécuritaire à Bamako. Si la Cedeao a, dans un premier temps, donné les bons signaux, la crédibilité de son action diplomatique a ensuite été sérieusement affectée par une médiation peu transparente conduite par le Burkina Faso, objet de vives critiques dans la capitale malienne et au-delà. Dans ce contexte favorable à la prédominance des intérêts sécuritaires et politiques particuliers des Etats étrangers, voisins ou non, sur ceux de la population malienne, l’influence des partisans d’une intervention armée extérieure est croissante. Il convient de ne pas céder aux appels belliqueux et de poursuivre les initiatives de règlement politique du conflit déjà entamées, sans pour autant négliger les questions sécuritaires. Les pays de la Cedeao qui se disent prêts à envoyer des troupes paraissent mal appréhender les complexes réalités sociales du Nord-Mali, et sous-estimer les risques élevés de règlements de comptes intercommunautaires qui résulteraient d’une intervention militaire extérieure. Une telle intervention armée ferait du Mali un nouveau front de la « guerre contre la terreur » aux dépens des revendications politiques exprimées depuis des décennies au Nord, et au risque de rendre illusoire toute possibilité de nouvelle cohabitation pacifique des différentes communautés de ces régions. Enfin, elle exposerait une Afrique de l’Ouest qui n’y est pas préparée à des représailles par le biais d’action terroristes : les liens logistiques d’AQMI avec le Sud libyen et le Nord-Nigeria (qui passent tous deux par le Niger) rendent tout à fait réalisables des opérations terroristes loin de ses bases maliennes. La cascade des évènements au Mali est la conséquence conjointe de la fragilité des équilibres politiques échafaudés ces dernières années en dépit des rituels électoraux, des espoirs déçus de développement économique et social au Nord comme au Sud, du laxisme dans la gestion de l’Etat, et du choc externe sans précédent qu’a constitué la crise libyenne. Les relations du centre du pouvoir bamakois avec sa périphérie sous le régime d’ATT reposaient moins sur le renforcement institutionnel démocratique que sur un maillage lâche de relations personnelles, clientélistes, voire mafieuses, avec des élites régionales aux loyautés réversibles. Cette forme de gouvernement du Nord à faible coût pouvait absorber des actions d’opposition, y compris armées, d’ambition et de capacités militaires réduites. Elle s’est désintégrée face à une initiative rebelle que la crise libyenne a métamorphosée en quelques mois en un groupe armé puissamment équipé, et face à l’opportunisme de groupes islamistes qui ont accumulé ces dernières années une grande quantité d’armes grâce à l’argent des trafics transsahariens et à celui du commerce des otages occidentaux, tous fort lucratifs. La bataille pour le pouvoir à Bamako, pendant une période de transition dont il est impossible de prévoir le terme, et le chevauchement confus des groupes armés au Nord rendent les perspectives très incertaines. L’issue de la crise dépend, d’une part, des modalités de reconquête de l’intégrité territoriale par l’Etat malien et, d’autre part, de la consolidation ou non au Nord de la position de force des mouvements jihadistes. Ces évolutions sont conditionnées, à des degrés divers, par les décisions des pays voisins (Algérie, Niger, Mauritanie et Burkina Faso), des organisations régionales (Cedeao, Union africaine) et des acteurs occidentaux ou multilatéraux (France, Etats-Unis, ONU, Union européenne). Remettre sur pied les bases politiques, institutionnelles et sécuritaires de l’Etat malien est une urgence et une condition nécessaire pour envisager un retour du Nord dans le giron de la République. Il est aussi essentiel d’accroitre l’assistance humanitaire, dans une région sahélo-saharienne qui était déjà menacée de crise alimentaire, et d’empêcher, par une reprise rapide de l’aide extérieure, un effondrement de l’économie. Dakar/Bruxelles, 18 juillet 2012 Download pdf to continue reading the full report Executive Summary In a little more than two months, Mali’s political regime has been demolished. An armed rebellion launched on 17 January 2012 expelled the army from the north while a coup deposed President Amadou Toumani Touré (ATT) on 22 March. These two episodes ushered Mali into an unprecedented crisis that also threatens regional political stability and security. An external armed intervention would nevertheless involve considerable risks. The international community must support dialogue between the armed and unarmed actors in the north and south that favours a political solution to the crisis. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) must readjust its mediation efforts to avoid aggravating the already deep fault lines in Malian society. Strengthening the credibility of transitional institutions to restore the state and its security forces is an absolute priority. Finally, coordinated regional security measures must be taken to prevent once foreign groups from turning northern Mali into a new front in the “war on terror”. In Bamako, the capital, the transitional framework agreed by ECOWAS and the junta, composed of junior officers led by Captain Amadou Haya Sanogo, has failed to establish undisputed political arrangements. The junta has rallied grassroots support by capitalising on the anger of a significant minority of the population towards ATT’s government, with which it associates the interim president, Dioncounda Traoré, former head of the National Assembly. Traoré was physically attacked, and could have been killed, by supporters of the coup leaders in the presidential palace on 21 May 2012. Flown to France for treatment, he had still not returned to Bamako in mid-July. The destruction of the military apparatus and the weakness of the transitional authorities, notably the government of Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra, soon to be reshuffled, impede the Malian forces’ ability to restore territorial integrity in the short term and avoid serious collapse. In the north, the Tuareg group that launched the rebellion, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (Mouvement national de libération de l’Azawad, MNLA) has been outflanked by an armed Islamist group, Ansar Dine (Ançar Eddine), led by Iyad Ag Ghali, a Tuareg chief initially sidelined during the discussions that led to the creation of the MNLA. By taking control of the north, Ansar Dine has established a modus vivendi, if not a pact, with a range of armed actors, including former regime-backed Arab and Tuareg militias and, in particular, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The latter is responsible for kidnappings and killings of many Westerners in Mali, Niger and Mauritania, attacks against the armies of the region and involved in criminal transborder trafficking. Northern Mali could easily become a safe haven for jihadi fighters from multiple backgrounds. Considered for twenty years a model of democratic progress in sub-Saharan Africa, Mali is now on the brink of sheer dissolution. The prospects of a negotiated solution to the crisis are receding with the consolidation of hardline Islamist power in the north and a continued political, institutional and security vacuum in Bamako. Although ECOWAS initially sent out positive signals, the credibility of its diplomatic action was seriously compromised by a lack of transparency in the attempts at mediation led by Burkina Faso, which was bitterly criticised in the Malian capital and beyond. Pressure is mounting in favour of an external armed intervention as specific security and political interests of foreign actors – neighbouring states and others – prevail over those of the Malian population in both the north and south. It would be wise to ignore calls for war and instead to continue with existing initiatives to promote a political settlement of the conflict, while ensuring that security issues are not neglected. ECOWAS countries willing to send troops do not appear to fully grasp the complex social situation in northern Mali, and underestimate the high risk of inter-tribal settling of scores that would result from external military intervention. Such an intervention would turn Mali into a new front of the “war on terror”, at the expense of longstanding political demands in the north, and rule out any chance of peaceful coexistence between the different communities. Finally, it would expose West Africa to reprisals in the form of terrorist activity to which it is not equipped to respond. AQIM’s logistical links with southern Libya and northern Nigeria (through Niger) make it perfectly feasible for it to carry out terrorist operations far from its Malian bases. This series of events in Mali is the result of a weak political system despite democratic practices, disillusionment in the lack of economic and social development in the north and south, government laxity in state management and the unprecedented external shock of the Libyan crisis. Under the ATT government, relations between the centre of power in Bamako and the periphery rested on a loose network of personal, clientelistic, even mafia-style alliances with regional elites with reversible loyalties rather than on robust democratic institutions. This low-cost system of governance was able to contain the actions of the opposition, including armed groups, given their limited military ambitions and capacities. It disintegrated when faced with a rebellion that was quickly transformed into a well-armed group by the effects of the Libyan crisis and the opportunism of Islamist groups that have in recent years accumulated an abundance of arms using profits from lucrative trans-Saharan trafficking of illicit goods and Western hostages. The perpetuation of a power struggle in Bamako, during a transition period whose end is impossible to predict, and the confused overlapping of armed groups in the north mean the future is very uncertain. A solution to the crisis depends, first, on how to restore Mali’s territorial integrity and, second, on whether the jihadi movements manage to consolidate their position of strength in the north. The decisions of Mali’s neighbours (Algeria, Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso), regional organisations (ECOWAS, African Union) and Western and multilateral actors (France, U.S., UN, European Union) will also have some influence. It is urgent and necessary to restore the political, institutional and security foundations of the central state prior to working towards the north’s reintegration into the republic. It is also essential to increase humanitarian aid to the civilian population in the Sahel-Sahara region, already facing a food crisis, and quickly resume foreign aid to prevent an economic collapse. Recommendations To ensure security and strengthen the legitimacy of transitional institutions and the state To the Interim President and the Current Prime Minister: Consolidate the legitimacy of the transitional authorities by urgently forming a genuine government of national unity after broad consultations with the main political parties and civil society organisations. Ensure the effective establishment of the special unit composed of gendarmes and police officers dedicated to the protection of transitional institutions representatives and request, if necessary, the deployment of a small, external armed contingent to support the force. Guarantee proceedings of the judicial investigation into the assault on 21 May 2012 against the interim president, and if progress stalls, request international assistance to help identify and punish those who were directly and indirectly responsible for the assault. To the Malian Defence and Security Forces: Guarantee the security and free exercise of their duties to the prime minister, members of the government and the National Assembly and other state officials. Put an end to arbitrary arrests of civilian and military individuals and the settling of scores within the army. Restructure and restore discipline in the armed forces, under the authority of the government and the official hierarchy of the different corps. To Members of the Former Junta and to Leaders of Civil Society Organisations that support them: Stop the manipulation of public opinion through divisive discourses that expose representatives of transitional institutions and politicians in general to violence. To Mali’s Bilateral and Multilateral Partners: Contribute to the reorganisation of the Malian armed forces and provide necessary support to the effective establishment of a force to protect the transitional institutions. Help stabilise the Malian economy through a rapid resumption of foreign aid as soon as a national unity government is formed; and answer the urgent humanitarian needs of the civilian populations severely affected by the crisis, whether internally displaced persons or Malian refugees in neighbouring countries. To encourage a political settlement of the conflict in the North and neutralise the terrorist threat To the Malian Government: Refrain from launching a military offensive to regain control of the north prior to the creation of conditions for negotiation with non-terrorist armed actors and community representatives, including those forced out of the country by violence. Seek the effective support of neighbouring countries, particularly Algeria, for a strategy to regain sovereignty over the north and neutralise the terrorist armed groups that threaten regional security. To the Leaders of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad and Ansar Dine: Formulate publicly clear agendas and commit to: respecting human rights and the principles of democratic and plural governance, especially with regard to religion; guaranteeing security and equal access of the population to basic public services and facilitating the access of humanitarian organisations to the population; helping to establish the facts regarding the atrocities at Aguelhoc as well as all other atrocities perpetrated during the military conquest of the north; combatting the criminal trafficking activities that thrive in the territory they control; joining immediately the fight against AQIM and its armed offshoots; and exploring with the Malian government how to reach a rapprochement to avoid a lasting partition of the country and an internecine war. To the Governments of Algeria, Mali, Niger and Mauritania: Revive regional cooperation in the fight against terrorism and transborder crime and open up participation to Nigeria and the Arab Maghreb Union, notably Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. To the Algerian Government: End the ambiguity about how serious a threat it believes armed groups in northern Mali are to regional security and show clear support for the restoration, even gradual, of Mali’s sovereignty over its entire territory. To the Economic Community of West African States, the African Union and the UN: Continue to provide humanitarian support to the civilian populations who are the direct victims of the crisis in the three northern regions as well as to displaced people and refugees. Adopt a joint strategy, together with the Malian authorities, that combines the establishment of a formal framework for negotiations with the armed groups in the north, restoration of the Malian armed forces and the mobilisation of as many resources as possible, including military, to neutralise AQIM and other criminal groups in northern Mali. To the UN Security Council: Support attempts to reach a comprehensive solution to the crisis within the framework of Resolution 2056 of 5 July 2012 by: providing the Secretary-General’s special representative in West Africa with the necessary means to use his good offices to support ECOWAS mediation; adopting targeted sanctions against all those who are identified as hampering normal operation of the transitional institutions in Bamako and attempts at resolving the crisis in the north, and against all those responsible for serious human rights and international humanitarian law violations in the north and south; establishing an independent group of experts to investigate the origin of the financial and material resources of the armed groups in northern Mali, as well as their arms supply lines, and collate information allowing the identification of Malian and foreign persons who should face targeted sanctions; and requesting the creation of an independent UN commission of inquiry into the human rights and international humanitarian law violations committed throughout Malian territory since the beginning of the armed rebellion in January 2012, which should report to the Security Council as quickly as possible. To Mali’s Bilateral and Multilateral Partners, particularly the European Union, France and the U.S.: Provide political and financial support to Malian political and social initiatives that seek to resolve the crisis by uniting all communities, in the north and the south, through promotion of respect for the republic’s fundamental principles and society’s traditional religious tolerance. Support efforts to reconstitute the defence and security forces, with a view to strengthening their cohesion, discipline and effectiveness so they can ensure security in the south, constitute a credible threat of last resort to protect the populations trapped in the north and be capable of participating, if necessary, in regional actions against terrorist groups. Provide intelligence support to the armed forces of Mali, Niger, Mauritania, Algeria, Libya and Nigeria to help them locate terrorist groups and their arms caches. Dakar/Brussels, 18 July 2012 Related Tags More for you Report / Africa Nord du Mali : revenir au dialogue Also available in Also available in English Q&A / Africa Nord du Mali : une confrontation dont personne ne sortira vainqueur Also available in Also available in English