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Democratic Republic of Congo

A decade of relative stability is at risk from rising polarisation over the delayed organisation of elections and President Joseph Kabila’s determination to stay in power beyond his constitutional time limit in December 2016. Crisis Group is alerting policymakers to the threat of popular violence, harsh crackdowns by the security forces and the continued threats posed by existing and emerging armed groups. Through advocacy based on field-researched analysis of national and local political dynamics and regional diplomacy, we seek to persuade domestic rivals to compromise in their disputes, to create a consensus among stakeholders on a transition to credible elections, and to persuade African and Western powers to coordinate their efforts to end the Congolese crisis.

CrisisWatch Democratic Republic of Congo

Unchanged Situation

President Kabila 9 May appointed new govt under PM Tshibala; presidential majority kept most key ministries. Kabila 12 May invited parties signatory to 31 Dec agreement to submit names for national committee charged with overseeing agreement’s implementation (CNSA); main opposition coalition Rassemblement refused and rejected new govt. Southern African Development Community (SADC) and International Organisation of La Francophonie (OIF) 14-16 May assessed voter registration process; electoral commission (CENI) said political impasse over governing arrangements hindering process. EU 29 May placed sanctions on nine people including current and former interior ministers and security chiefs for obstructing electoral process and human rights violations. Kamuina Nsapu insurgency continued in Kasai Central province. Alleged Kamuina Nsapu militants beheaded two chiefs in Luiza territory 6 May and allegedly killed two boys in Demba territory 11 May. 47 Kamuina Nsapu killed in clash with soldiers in Kazumba territory 19 May. Army 15 May said 390 insurgents, 39 soldiers and 85 police killed in operations in Kasai Central since March. UN 12 May estimated 1.3mn people internally displaced in Kasai Central and neighbouring provinces since Aug 2016. UN Security Council 4 May urged govt to cooperate in investigation into March killing of two UN experts in Kasai Central; govt 25 May said it opposed international investigation having carried out its own. In N Kivu province, Mai Mai Nyatura and Rwandan Hutu rebel group Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) attacked soldiers in Masisi territory 8 May, killing two. Mai Mai Nyatura and FDLR splinter group National Council for Renewal and Democracy (CNRD) clashed 15 May, 29 people killed. Army 12 May captured Mai Mai Nyatura leader David Komayombi in Rutshuru territory, N Kivu. In Kinshasa, over 3,000 prisoners, including leader of Bundu Dia Kongo (BDK) politico-religious movement, escaped 18 May; BDK assault reportedly facilitated escape, at least five attackers, one policeman and two prison workers killed. In Kongo Central, 68 prisoners allegedly escaped in Kasangulu 20 May.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

16 Jun 2017
[A statement by former African leaders could bridge] the gap between sitting African leaders, who are putting little pressure on Kabila, and the west, who are imposing sanctions and demanding an election. Financial Times

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo
31 Mar 2017
We should not see [MONUSCO] as the force that can go in and stabilise the Kasai [in DR Congo]. It can, at least, stop government and militia forces committing human rights violations in impunity. Newsweek

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo
28 Mar 2017
The ball is very much in [President] Kabila’s court now. The president [of DR Congo] has been more or less silent for the last three months so this would be a good time for him to speak out. Financial Times

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo
1 Feb 2017
There is a possibility of protests and emotional reaction, potentially violent [in DRC, following the death of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi]. No one has the popular legitimacy to take over. Financial Times

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo
26 Jan 2017
What’s going on [in DR Congo] shows an implosion is inevitable because the political system is not set up to solve [disputes over the position of Prime Minister]. Financial Times

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo
18 Dec 2016
You have a disconnect [in DR Congo] between a very impoverished people and a political-social class that basically negotiates and cuts deals amongst themselves. The Los Angeles Times

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

RD Congo : dangereuse guerre d’influence dans l’ex-Katanga

Depuis 2015, des tensions parcourent l’ex-province du Katanga, en RDC. Le mécontentement envers Kinshasa gagne du terrain face aux manœuvres politiques et à une situation économique dégradée, tandis que la région est un enjeu majeur pour le président Kabila, déterminé à se maintenir au pouvoir.

Statement / Africa

Twelve Points for the New African Union Commission Chairperson

Africa is experiencing the highest number of humanitarian crises since the 1990s. As the new chair of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, takes office, International Crisis Group suggests how he can strengthen the organisation’s response to threats to continental peace and security.

Also available in Français
Op-Ed / Africa

What Does Opposition Leader Tshisekedi’s Death Mean for DR Congo’s Road to Elections?

The death of the veteran politician deprives the opposition of a well-known rallying figure. Without him, uncertainty and growing popular anger are likely to lead to more instability.

Originally published in African Arguments

Op-Ed / Africa

Hungry for Change: The Economics Underlying DR Congo’s Political Crisis

At the heart of disenchantment with President Kabila’s government lie deep economic woes.

Originally published in African Arguments

Our People

Hans Hoebeke

Senior Analyst, Congo