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Eastern Mediterranean

CrisisWatch Eastern Mediterranean

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month August 2018

Deteriorated Situations

Syria

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month September 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts

Syria

Resolution Opportunities

none

President's Take

15 Years of Tracking Conflict Worldwide

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

This month we mark the fifteenth anniversary of our monthly global conflict tracker, CrisisWatch. In his introductory commentary, our President Rob Malley notes some examples of conflicts where CrisisWatch has continually pointed out both mounting costs and moments of possible resolution.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

17 Sep 2018
A head-on attack against [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] now or later would likely destabilize northwest [Syria], prompt a bloody and maybe inconclusive fight, and potentially set off retaliatory attacks inside Turkey. This is why the Turks are pushing so hard for something that approximates the status quo. Washington Post

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
13 Sep 2018
By punishing the Palestinians, the [Trump] administration unwittingly is liberating them from former restraints under which they had operated since Oslo in order to placate the U.S. and Israel. The New York Times

Robert Malley

President & CEO
12 Sep 2018
What is the reason [President] Netanyahu views a Palestinian state as a security risk? He thinks Palestinians will continue to teach their children that Zionism is unjust and that the state next door should not exist as a state for the Jewish people. The New York Times

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
14 Aug 2018
The U.S. wants out of Syria and wants to retain some sort of insurance policy against the return of Isis and the expanding influence of Iran. If there is a deal between the [Kurds] and the regime with both the U.S. and Russia as co-guarantors then that might be acceptable to Washington. Financial Times

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
28 Jul 2018
Rebels [in Southern Syria] are facing a set of options where even the best one is bad - they're stuck between negotiating with Russia through Jordanian mediation, or continuing to resist militarily which will ultimately end with talks under even greater military pressure. AFP

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
27 Jul 2018
Israel wants the Palestinian Authority to control Gaza, but it is wary of the elections the authority would have because Hamas could win a place in a Palestinian government. Wall Street Journal

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / United States

Trump’s Refugee Fiasco

The administration just slashed the number of refugees the U.S. will admit to a record low. Its reasoning doesn’t pass the laugh test.

Originally published in Politico

How Turkey’s Ties to the West May Survive the Syrian War

Crisis Group's Middle East & North Africa Program Director Joost Hiltermann participated in the 2018 Körber Policy Game, designed to explore possible outcomes in the event of a crisis between Turkey and the West in Syria. While the exercise underscored many of the Syrian conflict's complexities, it also revealed that a strong desire by stakeholders to find common ground can help overcome them.

Syria: From One War to More

Bashar al-Assad looks set to restore his authority across much of Syria. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 annual early-warning update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue to provide humanitarian assistance to those in need, while facilitating dialogue between the warring parties to ensure the Syrian state’s return to areas outside its control is non-violent.

Watch List 2018 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on seizing a chance for peace in Mali, avoiding escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, mitigating conflict in Syria’s peripheral regions, and helping Somalia overcome obstacles to reform. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Our People

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict
nathanthrall

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Israel/Palestine
OferZalzberg

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
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