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Eastern Mediterranean

CrisisWatch Eastern Mediterranean

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month June 2019

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month July 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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President's Take

How the U.S. and Iran Can Step Away from a Conflagration

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley urges the U.S. and Iran to step back from a dangerous conflagration and calls for the immediate release of our colleague Michael Kovrig from arbitrary detention in China. 

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Jul 2019
Idlib’s armed opposition may not be able to win an open battle for the northwest, but they can make a Syrian military victory terribly costly, maybe intolerably so. AP

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
21 Jun 2019
Damascus is still evidently intent on taking the whole of Idlib, and all Syrian territory nationwide. But it’s Russia that’s enabled this latest military push, seemingly with more limited aims. Japan Times

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
23 May 2019
Idlib is a bargaining chip at this point and it’s extremely difficult to anticipate what happens next. The Guardian

Dareen Khalifa

Senior Analyst, Syria
5 May 2019
Hamas agreed to restrain the protests in return for concessions. Those haven’t materialized. New York Times

Tareq Baconi

Analyst, Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict
1 May 2019
Given that the PA’s main source of legitimacy is its capacity to employ a considerable proportion of the Palestinian workforce, internal discontent could challenge its ability to govern effectively. Reuters

Tareq Baconi

Analyst, Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict
1 Apr 2019
Netanyahu prefers to deal with Hamas because clear dynamics have been established and Hamas will not seek a final resolution [of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict] from Israel. Associated Press

Tareq Baconi

Analyst, Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict

Latest Updates

Lowering Israeli-Palestinian Tensions

A tense standoff in Jerusalem and simmering tensions between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have heightened the risk of violence and unrest. In this excerpt from the first update of our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group outlines steps for the EU to help alleviate Gaza’s economic crisis and support the status quo in Jerusalem.

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2019 – First Update

Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The Watch List Updates include situations identified in the annual Watch List and/or a new focus of concern.

Defusing the Crisis at Jerusalem’s Gate of Mercy

A standoff looms between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police over a shuttered building at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade. Israel and Muslim religious authorities should reopen the building to lessen tensions at the sacred site, where small incidents have blown up into prolonged violence before.

Also available in العربية

Stopping an Unwanted War in Gaza

As in 2014, Hamas and Israel appear close to a conflagration that neither party desires – though now a shaky ceasefire seems to have taken hold. Crisis Group’s Israel/Palestine analyst Tareq Baconi explains how the parties got to the brink and how they can step back.

The Best of Bad Options for Syria’s Idlib

The Syrian regime vows to reconquer Idlib, the north-western zone hosting its hardest-core remaining jihadist opposition. But an all-out offensive would be calamitous. Turkey and Russia should recommit to their “de-escalation” deal for Idlib, bolstering it with measures that buy time for a lasting solution.

Also available in العربية

Our People

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict
nathanthrall

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Arab-Israeli Conflict
OferZalzberg

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
AbuJamajem

Tareq Baconi

Analyst, Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict
TareqBaconi

Dareen Khalifa

Senior Analyst, Syria
dkhalifa