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Eastern Mediterranean

CrisisWatch Eastern Mediterranean

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month August 2019

Deteriorated Situations

LebanonSyria

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month September 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

Lebanon

Resolution Opportunities

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President's Take

The Dangers of Ignoring Yemen's Southern Question

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley reflects on signs of hope in Afghanistan and Sudan, and on dangerous new developments in southern Yemen.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Sep 2019
The debate unfolding within Israel now is not whether annexation has happened or not, but rather whether to formalize it or not. TIME

Tareq Baconi

Analyst, Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict
1 Sep 2019
This ceasefire [in Idlib] may just be an operational pause for Damascus and Moscow to consolidate their territorial gains and prepare for the next phase of their offensive. Al Jazeera

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
20 Aug 2019
If the Russians have decided that they now care about the verbatim implementation of [the de-escalation] agreement then that is a big problem for Idlib and for Turkey. Financial Times

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
17 Aug 2019
The longer Damascus is excluded from certain areas of the country, the more facts are being created on the ground. Damascus has a lot of work to do in that respect, it could take a long time. The Arab Weekly

Heiko Wimmen

Project Director, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon
30 Jul 2019
The main obstacle Damascus now faces is the complicating role of foreign forces in the areas still outside its control. Deutsche Welle

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
13 Jul 2019
Idlib’s armed opposition may not be able to win an open battle for the northwest, but they can make a Syrian military victory terribly costly, maybe intolerably so. AP

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups

Latest Updates

Lowering Israeli-Palestinian Tensions

A tense standoff in Jerusalem and simmering tensions between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have heightened the risk of violence and unrest. In this excerpt from the first update of our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group outlines steps for the EU to help alleviate Gaza’s economic crisis and support the status quo in Jerusalem.

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2019 – First Update

Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The Watch List Updates include situations identified in the annual Watch List and/or a new focus of concern.

Israel’s Upcoming Elections and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Israel’s parliamentary elections on 9 April seem set to see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu return to lead a fragile, more right-wing coalition, an outcome unlikely to prompt a dramatic change in the country’s policies in the West Bank and Gaza.

Defusing the Crisis at Jerusalem’s Gate of Mercy

A standoff looms between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police over a shuttered building at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade. Israel and Muslim religious authorities should reopen the building to lessen tensions at the sacred site, where small incidents have blown up into prolonged violence before.

Also available in العربية

Stopping an Unwanted War in Gaza

As in 2014, Hamas and Israel appear close to a conflagration that neither party desires – though now a shaky ceasefire seems to have taken hold. Crisis Group’s Israel/Palestine analyst Tareq Baconi explains how the parties got to the brink and how they can step back.

Our People

Nathan Thrall

Project Director, Arab-Israeli Conflict
nathanthrall

Ofer Zalzberg

Senior Analyst, Arab-Israeli Conflict
OferZalzberg

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
AbuJamajem

Tareq Baconi

Analyst, Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict
TareqBaconi

Dareen Khalifa

Senior Analyst, Syria
dkhalifa