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Unless all sides to the conflict agree to an inclusive dialogue in order to reach meaningful reform, Bahrain is heading for prolonged and costly political stalemate.

In March, after a month of popular protests, the island kingdom of Bahrain called for assistance from its neighbours in the Gulf to defend against an unspecified outside threat. In response, Saudi Arabia and other states dispatched troops and police. Though unspecified, the concern was clear: Bahrain’s Sunni rulers feared Iran’s influence among the country’s majority Shiite population. Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Group’s Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa Program, explains why the Iranian threat is overblown.

Bahrain’s crackdown and Saudi Arabia’s 14 March military intervention could turn a mass movement for democratic reform into an armed conflict while regionalising a genuinely internal political struggle.

Scheduled for 15 August 2005, Israel's disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank has already begun. How Israel for the first time evacuates settlements in the Palestinian Occupied Territories will have profound implications for Israeli-Palestinian relations, but also for Israeli society.

A little over four years after Sheikh Hamad bin ’Isa al-Khalifa announced a sweeping reform plan, Bahrain’s fragile liberal experiment is poised to stall, or, worse, unravel. The overlap of political and social conflict with sectarian tensions makes a combustible mix.