Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Outlook for This Month February 2008

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High-level contacts to relaunch dialogue between government, South African facilitation and PALIPEHUTU-FNL intensified prior to AU summit in Addis Ababa 31 Jan-2 Feb. FNL spokesperson Pasteur Habimana said in 25 Jan interview 7 Sept 2006 ceasefire agreement “rubbish” and imposed by facilitation. Growing insecurity in Bubanza province and some districts of Bujumbura: reported FNL targeting state and elected officials in provinces; intelligence service setting up death squads from demobilised CNDD- FDD and presumed FNL dissidents to target FNL members or sympathisers. 5 FNL fighters killed in clash with government forces in western Musigati region, 9 Jan. Trial of former leader of ruling CNDD-FDD Hussein Radjabu on charges of encouraging instability continued.


10 killed in ongoing ethnic clashes in Akwaya border region of disputed Bakassi peninsula 18-19 Jan involving tribesmen from Oliti community in Cameroon and rivals from Nigerian Yive community. Pro-Nigeria Bakassi group, Southern Cameroons Peoples Organisation (SCAPO) threatened armed struggle if self-determination denied. President Paul Biya declared intention to amend constitution and run for third term.

Central African Republic

EU peacekeeping (EUFOR) deployment due early Feb. PM Elie Dote and government resigned 18 Jan ahead of parliamentary  censure  vote and during general strike. Unions launched strike 2 Jan to demand payment of 7-month arrears in civil servant salaries. President François Bozizé appointed university professor Faustin Archange Touadera PM, by decree, 22 Jan; new cabinet includes Bozizé family members. Bozizé threatened to confront unions with “all means available”.


Situation escalated ahead of early Feb deployment of EU (EUFOR) peacekeepers. 300 rebel vehicles advanced towards N’Djamena end month under apparent unified command after earlier taking control of central town Oum Hadjer. National army (ANT) troops approached rebel column as CrisisWatch went to press. EU military staff agreed to deploy Irish-led force 11 Jan after France, Belgium, Poland supplied additional equipment. Concern about how 2 UN missions will work together: MINURCAT – mandated to train police, reinforce judicial infrastructure, deploy inside camps for Darfur refugees and eastern sites for displaced Chadians, offer police escorts for aid agencies; EUFOR – authorised to use military force and prevent incursions into area. EU Commissioner Louis Michel stated 21 Jan “EU will not refuse to be a mediator if it is asked to do so”. Chadian air force bombed rebel positions close to West Darfur capital El Geneina 6 Jan. N’Djamena stated intention 8 Jan to carry out further bombings against Chadian rebels in Sudan. Rebel group Alliance for National Resistance claimed shot down army helicopter gunship which attacked positions in east near village of Beda.

Côte d’Ivoire

10 arrested,  including French journalist, charged with plotting coup. Accused allegedly linked to former rebel leader “IB” Ibrahim Coulibaly. He rejected accusations from exile; said planning to contest proposed June 2008 presidential poll. UNSC renewed UNOCI mandate 15 Jan; extended to 30 July to help with election organisation. Army head, Maj. Gen. Philippe Mangou, announced 24 Jan withdrawal of 12,000 loyalist soldiers from frontlines and regrouping in barracks completed.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Cautious optimism after “Goma agreement” signed 23 Jan, following negotiations between government, renegade general Laurent Nkunda and Mai Mai militias. Deal includes ceasefire, troop withdrawal from key areas and creation of UN “buffer zone”; gives militia fighters amnesty for insurgency or acts of war, but not for war crimes or crimes against humanity. Hutu FDLR not invited to talks; government pledged to forcibly disarm rebels by mid- March if they remain active. Task Force of Joint Monitoring Group to implement Nov 2007 Nairobi Communiqué also convened in Goma 11 Jan; no significant progress. Sporadic fighting continued: 10 FPRI rebels killed by army in Ituri 29 Jan. Over 40 civilians killed in fighting between Nkunda’s CNDP and Mai Mai group PARECO 17 Jan north west of Goma. Bas Congo clashes between ethnic-based political and religious movement Bundu dia Kongo and police 5 Jan resulted in 6 deaths.


Government reported “many” U.S. and European citizens of Ethiopian Somali origin arrested, accused of assisting Ogaden rebels. Splits continued to widen in main opposition party, CUD.


Eritrea reiterated acceptance of 2002 “virtual demarcation” of border by Hague boundary commission 15 Jan, called for removal of Ethiopian troops from land awarded to Asmara. Ethiopia rejected demarcation saying no validity in international law. UNSC renewed UNMEE mandate for 6 months 30 Jan, despite UNSG Ban Ki-moon’s recommendation for 1-month extension due to fuel block by Eritrea.


National strike called for early Jan, postponed to 31 Mar pending outcome of talks on President Lansana Conté’s backtracking on reforms agreed after Jan 2007 violence. Conté accused of retaking control of key functions from consensus PM Lansana Kouyaté, including sacking of communications minister Justin Morel 4 Jan.


Head of UN’s Peacebuilding Commission configuration for G-B,  Maria  Luiza  Ribeiro  Viotti,  arrived in country 21 Jan on assessment mission. Bissau on alert after extraditing al-Qaeda suspects to Mauritania 12 Jan in connection with December 2007 murders of French tourists.


Violence worsened in post-election standoff between supporters of President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, increasingly along ethnic lines, while mediation efforts gathered momentum. Political conflict reinforcing and fuelled by longstanding land disputes and economic disparity. Over 900 reported killed and 250,000 displaced since 27 Dec poll. Kibaki announced 17 ministers of new cabinet 8 Jan after 5 Jan offer of government of national unity rejected by opposition. Opposition candidate elected speaker of assembly 15 Jan. Human Rights Watch reported 24 Jan on opposition officials helping organise ethnic violence in Rift Valley. Mungiki sect involved in revenge killings against non-Kikuyus. Widespread opposition protests including in Kisumu, Eldoret and Nairobi resulted in deadly confrontations with police. Former UNSG Kofi Annan arrived 22 Jan to mediate dispute after AU Chair John Kufuor pushed both sides to work with African panel headed by Annan. Kibaki met Odinga for first time since Dec poll 24 Jan and negotiations under Annan mediation began 29 Jan but violence continued, particularly in Rift Valley capital Nakuru and Naivasha. Opposition Orange Democratic Movement member of parliament David Kimutai Too shot dead 31 Jan in Eldoret – led to increased unrest; followed earlier Nairobi killing of ODM parliamentarian, Mugabe Were. U.S. Assistant Sec. for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer 30 Jan said “ethnic cleansing” taking place in Rift Valley. Cyril Ramaphosa, leading ANC figure and South African businessman, due 1 Feb to join mediation efforts at request of Annan. UNSG Ban Ki-moon also to support mediation effort in Nairobi.


Maseru government claimed uncovered opposition plot to kill ministers and businesspeople 18 Jan. Tension with opposition has continued since Feb 2007 snap elections.


Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) opened, Monrovia, 8 Jan; heard testimony of former rebel leader Joshua Blahyi who admitted responsibility for 20,000 deaths including human sacrifices. Supreme Court ruled 14 Jan President Johnson-Sirleaf can temporarily appoint local mayors, due to insufficient funds for local elections. Final phase of rehabilitation and reintegration of estimated 9,000 ex-combatants launched 18 Jan, Monrovia.


According to government sources 4 national soldiers held by rebels were freed 23 Jan.


Niger   Movement   for   Justice   (MNJ)   claimed responsibility  for  21  Jan  attack  on  south  eastern  town Tanout: 3 killed and several abducted – including most senior government official in Tanout. Landmine blast in Niamey 9 Jan killed 1. Government and MNJ exchanged accusations over incident.


Amid  efforts  to  revive  talks  with  government, Niger Delta rebel groups continued sporadic attacks on oil installations and shipping. Tribunal in south eastern state of Enugu cancelled election of Governor Sullivan Chime and deputy on grounds of gross electoral malpractice and non- compliance with Electoral Act; sixth decision against ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) since April 2007 poll. Southern Cameroons Peoples Organisation warned 11 Jan of armed struggle if Nigerian government eventually gives up Bakassi Peninsula to Cameroon.


No progress made on disarmament and repatriation of FDLR rebels from DRC. President Paul Kagame-directed redistribution of land started 22 Jan in Nyagatare District. MPs deployed to schools around country 28 Jan for 1-week anti- genocide ideology campaign. French FM Bernard Kouchner met with President Kagame 26 Jan to initiate restoration of diplomatic ties between Rwanda and France.

Sierra Leone

People’s Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC) claimed pre-election alliance agreement with President Ernest Bai Koroma’s All People’s Congress (APC) not being respected. Clashes between alleged supporters of APC and ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party in Port Loko resulted in 4 deaths and 11 houses burned 14 Jan. Port Loko District land ownership dispute 17 Jan led to burning of 10 houses.


Fighting intensified in Mogadishu mid-month while Islamist-led insurgency spread beyond capital. Divisions deepened between al-Shabaab and Asmara-based Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia making opposition representation in any future political process more problematic. New PM Nur Hassan Hussein arrived in Mogadishu first time 20 Jan. Mortars fired at his accommodation in president’s house (President Yusuf remained in UK undergoing medical treatment). Hussein’s new 18-member cabinet, down from 31, ratified 10 Jan – 3 ministers yet to be named. Further Burundian soldiers joined Ugandan AU contingent 20 Jan, contribution totalling 850. AU Commission Chair Konaré’s 18 Jan report called for 6-month extension to AMISOM peacekeeping force; criticised states’ failure to honour pledges (some 3,300 of requested 8,000 now deployed); warned anti-government activities spreading to previously peaceful areas. Strategic Assessment Mission on possibilities of deploying UN force and DPKO fact- finding mission continued. Harassment of press continued, several journalists arrested or attacked in capital and Puntland. 3 Médecins Sans Frontières staff killed in Kismayo by roadside bomb, 28 Jan; 2 others also killed in attack.


Puntland reported at least 10 killed in 12-13 Jan clashes near Las Anod, in disputed Sool region, between militias allied to rival Somaliland and Puntland administrations. Soldiers reportedly fired on opposition demonstrators at pro-Somaliland independence protests in Hargeisa and Berbera.


Security in West Darfur worsened with Chadian army conducting air raids inside Sudanese territory and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) threatening capital El Geneina. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) attacked UN/AU (UNAMID) convoy 7 Jan near Tine. Khartoum continued to obstruct UNAMID deployment while appointing Musa Hilal, leader of Janjaweed militias, special adviser to Ministry of Federal Affairs. UN and AU Darfur envoys, Salim  Salim and Jan Eliasson, 19 Jan stressed deteriorating relations between Chad and Sudan but said preparation underway for another round of Darfur pre-negotiations among rebels in next 6 weeks. SLM-Unity led by Abdallah Yahya, and newly formed United Resistance Front (URF) agreed to take part; Abdelshafi in Juba declined, preferring further SPLM initiative; Abdel Wahid and Khalil Ibrahim of JEM conditioned participation. SAF moved out of south Sudan’s oil-producing areas 9 Jan, according to new agreement between SPLM and National Congress Party (NCP), although SPLM claims not all redeployment achieved. AU summit in Addis Ababa 25 Jan-2 Feb. Sudan initially submitted request to head AU despite failed bid in 2006 and 2007, but withdrew it 29 Jan.


Government and LRA resumed talks 31 Jan after 6-month hiatus. Sept 2007 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement extended by 1 month and government reportedly  pushing  for  agreement  within  month.  Kony admitted  killing  deputy  Vincent  Otti  in  radio  interview; announced reshuffle of negotiating team including replacing top negotiator Martin Ojul with David Nyekorach Matsanga. 3 former LRA commanders given amnesty, 20 Jan, following Dec surrender to UN forces. Army launched crackdown on suspected collaborators with rebel Allied Democratic Forces, active in west since 1990s.


Mediation efforts between government and opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) collapsed, after President Mugabe announced 29 Mar date for polls, despite their calls for postponement until a new constitution adopted. MDC called elections “farce” but stopped short of boycott. Collapse came despite 17 Jan visit by mediator South African President Mbeki. MDC faction leader Tsvangirai briefly detained 23 Jan before Harare rally dispersed with tear gas. Independent monitoring group Zimbabwe Election Support Network reported problems with voter registration and education.



8 killed in multiple suicide attacks on Kabul’s Serena Hotel 14 Jan during visit by Norwegian FM; Taliban claimed responsibility. Former Bosnia High Representative Lord Ashdown withdrew from nomination process for UN representative role 27 Jan after Kabul turned against appointment. President Karzai had earlier criticised UK efforts in Helmand amid rising opposition to international actions in state-run media. U.S. announced 3,200 further marines to temporarily deploy in south. High-level panel on Canadian engagement recommended continued Kandahar deployment past 2009, contingent on 1,000-strong contribution from elsewhere. 9 Afghan police killed in firefight with U.S. troops in Ghazni raid, prompting local protests 25 Jan; U.S. said “misunderstanding”. Helmand deputy governor and 5 others killed in 31 Jan attack on Lashkar Gah mosque. Former Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Salaam named Musa Qala governor.


Supreme Court allowed extortion trial of former PM Sheikh Hasina 24 Jan. Former communications minister Salahuddin Ahmed sentenced 7 years for corruption 10 Jan. 4 teachers accused of inciting students in Aug 2007 protests acquitted 21 Jan, not released as second case pending. 7 Jamatul Mujahedeen Bangladesh militants sentenced to life imprisonment for 5 bombs in 2005. Border security tightened in attempt to stop Myanmar refugee influx 29 Jan.


Nagaland government sacked by Delhi and state brought under federal rule 3 Jan. 15 injured in Guwahati, Assam state, in suspected United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) separatist bombing 14 Jan.

India-Pakistan (Kashmir)

Babir Ahmad, top commander of Huji militant group, killed by security forces in Indian-administered Kashmir; wanted for Nov 2007 Uttar Pradesh bombings. Pakistan President Musharraf said peace talks with India “now on track” 24 Jan; expects progress after Feb Pakistan elections.


Angry demonstrations brought South Sulawesi capital Makassar to standstill 17-20 Jan after Supreme Court overturned gubernatorial election result. Trial of Papuan human rights lawyer Iwanggin Sabar Olif for incitement began 7 Jan. Failure by Jakarta to release $45m in reintegration funds by end 2007 threw Aceh Reintegration Agency into further disarray. Former President Soeharto died 27 Jan, 10 years after end to 32-year rule.

Korean Peninsula

U.S. gave Pyongyang new end-Feb deadline for full nuclear declaration; made removal from state sponsors of terrorism list contingent on dismantlement progress. South Korea President-elect Lee said 16 Jan unification, foreign ministries should merge to “streamline” government; inter- Korean cooperation should be linked to DPRK denuclearisation. Pyongyang postponed talks on cross-border rail ties due to “time constraints” 21 Jan. U.S. Senate committee criticised former UNDP operations in North for poor management but rejected allegations UNDP funds diverted to DPRK officials. DPRK head Kim Jong-il told Chinese diplomat 30 Jan commitment to disarmament unchanged.


Foreign Minister U Nyan Win met Indian PM Singh and FM Mukherjee in 3 Jan Delhi talks; India reportedly stressed internal reform and reconciliation. Aung San Suu Kyi met minister Aung Kyi 11 Jan in first disclosed meeting since 19 Nov. 4 explosions reported around country beginning with 11 Jan blast at Naypyidaw train station; state media blamed ethnic Karen “terrorists” and alleged foreign involvement. UNSC issued press statement 17 Jan criticising Myanmar for slow reforms. 10 of reported 700 activists detained after August protests charged with making illegal statements. UN negotiating earlier return for Special Envoy Gambari.


Constituent Assembly elections rescheduled for 10 Apr.  Situation  fragile  despite  momentum  from  government commitment. Campaigning started around country, but marred by explosions at Kathmandu party rallies 14 and 30 Jan, injuring 8, 55. Tarai Army rebel group claimed responsibility for 18 Jan bus attack that killed 7, days after government offered peace talks with rebel groups from south; several killings in month in Tarai as Madhesi groups continued joint protest. UNMIN mandate extended 6 months.


Fighting between government forces and militants  in  tribal  belt  continued,  notably  in  South Waziristan; hundreds killed. U.S. denied claims it launched late-month  missile  strike  that  killed  13  militants  in  North Waziristan,  and  may  have  killed  senior  al-Qaeda  leader Abu Laith al-Libi. Rare suicide bombing in Lahore 10 Jan targeted  police,  killing  20. U.S. Defence Secretary Gates said U.S. willing to send troops to support Pakistani army in domestic operations; President Musharraf reportedly rejected U.S. military presence. U.S. also said building coordination centres on  Pakistan-Afghanistan border  staffed with  troops from 3 countries to tackle cross-border insurgency. Elections postponed until 18 Feb; Musharraf faced falling approval rates as former generals urged him to step down. PPP lobbied UN to launch independent probe into Benazir Bhutto’s assassination; Scotland Yard provided assistance to Pakistani probe.


New People’s Army (NPA) rebels rejected renewed government offer for ceasefire as step towards talks 24 Jan, demanding instead no preconditions. Clashes that followed NPA attack on army in Davao Oriental 30 Jan killed 5. Large rallies in Mindanao cities urged Manila and MILF to resume talks early month; government said drafting new proposal. U.S. said it would upgrade joint Balikatan military exercises near Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) strongholds.

Sri Lanka

LTTE-government ceasefire formally ended 16 Jan; military operations intensified with heavy losses. Minister for nation building killed in mine attack 8 Jan near Colombo. 27 killed in 16 Jan ambush bus attack in south east blamed on Tigers, many shot while fleeing explosion; 17 killed in 29 Jan attack for which Tigers blamed army. SL’s biggest donor Japan said reviewing aid after ceasefire lapse. All Party Representative Committee, appointed by president in 2006, released interim devolution proposals 24 Jan calling for implementation of existing constitutional arrangements for provincial autonomy. Plan greeted with heavy scepticism; Colombo widely seen as intent on military solution.

Taiwan Strait

KMT opposition party won 72% of 12 Jan parliamentary vote (81 of 113 seats); seen as rejection of President Chen Shui-bian’s staunchly anti-China policies. Chen resigned as chairman of ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Malawi said broke ties with Taiwan, set up relations with China. 23 countries now recognise Taiwan.


Violence  surged  again  in  south  after  Dec elections;  government  admitted  little  headway  made  in quelling insurgency. 2007 reported deadliest in 4-year wave of violence, with 2,300 killed or wounded. New 6-party coalition government led by  People’s  Power Party announced 19 Jan. CNS military council disbanded next day, promising no more coups while warning politicians not to meddle in military affairs.


Rebel leader Alfredo Reinado accused PM Gusmao of masterminding 2006 crisis in video released early Jan. Gusmao refused to respond to allegations. Former PM Alkatiri called for his resignation. President  Ramos-Horta met with Reinado 13 Jan in Maubisse; declared May 2008 deadline for addressing his and petitioners’ grievances. 8 houses burnt in village in Covalima district by neighbouring villagers 4 Jan. Joint UN and local police operations targeted illegal immigration, drugs, and possible human trafficking.

Europe & Central Asia


Ruling Democratic Party ally Human Rights Union Party vowed 13 Jan to leave government unless reshuffle undertaken.


Campaigning  for  19  Feb  presidential  election started 24 Jan after official registration of 9 candidates 18 Jan. Yerevan municipal authorities 16 Jan called on political parties to avoid staging support marches citing need to prevent traffic jams. Tax and law enforcement agencies reportedly intimidated supporters  of  opposition  candidate  Levon  Ter-Petrossian, confiscating campaign  material  and  barring  TV  access. Armenian  Prosecutor-General’s  Office established  election fraud task forces 23 Jan to investigate possible irregularities.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict

OSCE Minsk Group met with Azeri FM Mammadyarov and President Aliyev in Baku 14 Jan to begin negotiations based on Nov 2007 draft “basic principles”. Aliyev ruled out independence for contested region in New Year’s speech. De facto President Baho Sahiken called 16 Jan for inclusion of NK representatives in talks.


Azerbaijan claimed 1 Armenian and 2 Azeri soldiers killed in border clashes 21, 27 Jan. Guard killed 17 Jan by unidentified gunman at Iran border. Journalist Musfiq Huseinov of newspaper Bizim yol sentenced to 6 years for bribery 21 Jan. Court rejected Gundelik Azerbaycan and Realny Azerbaijan editor Eynulla Fatullayev’s appeal against 8-year sentence, 16 Jan. EU welcomed 28 Dec amnesty for 119 prisoners but called for release of journalists still in prison.

Basque Country (Spain)

Further ETA arrests: 2 detained 6 Jan for carrying out fatal Dec 2006 car park bombing at Madrid Airport; 3 extradited from UK for alleged involvement in Feb 2006 bomb attack in Motrico. French police arrested leading ETA member Ainhoa Adin Jaurehui 29 Jan. 10 others detained for ETA-linked urban attacks during month. Government authorised action 25 Jan to outlaw 2 Basque parties linked to banned separatist Batasuna party.


4,000 protested small business regulations 10, 21 Jan; 42 detained before released 25 Jan. 10 youth activists arrested and jailed 17 Jan after demonstration in solidarity with political prisoners. Leader of liberal United Civil Party Anatoly Lebedko banned from travel after Dec meeting with U.S. President Bush; youth activist Barys Haretski also denied outward travel. Former deputy editor of newspaper Zhoda Alyaksandr Zdzvizhkou sentenced 3 years for Feb 2006 publication of controversial Danish “Muhammad” cartoons. Popular Front activist Dzmitry Zhaleznichenka hospitalised 28 Jan following 3-day hunger strike protesting expulsion from university and army draft.

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Office of High Representative (OHR) deputy head Raffi Gregorian expressed concern 10 Jan at curbs on media and rule of law in Republika Srpska (RS); RS PM Dodik dismissed as attempt by OHR to justify continued presence. All 6 Croat parties called 11 Jan for re-formation of Bosnia as federal state with 3 ethnic entities. Dodik proposed 22 Jan for army to be abolished and security left to international forces; 27 Jan urged creation of multi-entity federation. State budget still not adopted. RS police seized passports of alleged war criminal Radovan Karadzic’s family 10 Jan at request of OHR head Miroslav Lajcak. Slovenian PM Jansa said Bosnia “serious” threat to regional stability 7 Jan. Car bomb killed 2 in Pale 30 Jan; circumstances unclear.

Chechnya (Russia)

Clashes between security forces and rebels continued: 4 rebels shot dead in police operation 15 Jan; 2 soldiers killed by gunmen in eastern Chechnya near Niki-Khita village 21 Jan; 1 policeman killed in explosion and fire attack 24 Jan; Russian artillery shelled village of Gekhi 28 Jan after serviceman shot dead in nearby Bamut. European Parliament 19 Jan announced plans for “Association of European Parliamentarians for the Right of the Chechen People to Self-Determination” to reach political solution to conflict after London talks with separatist exile PM Zakayev.


Campaigning continued for first round of Greek Cypriot presidential elections 17 Feb. None of 3 candidates likely to win before run-off vote 24 Feb. Incumbent President Papadopoulos just ahead, followed by nominally communist AKEL leader Dimitris Christofias and ex-FM and Euro-parliamentarian Ioannis Kasoulides. Turkish President Gul visited UNSG Ban Ki-moon 9 Jan; restated support for post-election push for UN- mediated Cyprus talks. Greek PM Karamanlis visited Ankara 23 Jan – first official trip by a Greek premier since 1959; said Cyprus solution required to clear path to EU.


Saakashvili re-elected with 53% of vote in first round of early presidential elections 5 Jan; sworn in 20 Jan. United Opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze came second with 25%. Opposition rejected results claiming fraud. Most opposition and NGO complaints to courts and election commissions dismissed on procedural grounds. 50,000 rallied 13 Jan in Tbilisi to protest elections. OSCE observer mission endorsed elections but noted “significant challenges”. New PM Lado Gurgenidze announced cabinet reshuffle 24 Jan: former Conflict Resolution Minister David Bakradze appointed FM. Presidential candidate and businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili charged with terrorism and conspiracy to overthrow government 11 Jan: assets frozen 25 Jan. Licence of Patarkaksishvili-backed Imedi TV station again to be reviewed 15 Feb. Saakashvili and Russian PM Lavrov met 20 Jan to “improve ties”. Relations with separatist regions remain tense: UN says Georgian media’s inaccurate reports on situation in Abkhazia’s Gali region fuel tension. Border protection service rejected Abkhaz claims of opening fire at Georgian ship 24 Jan. Separatist president Bagapsh ruled out resumption of talks with Tbilisi 14 Jan. De facto South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoity called on OSCE and Russia 23 Jan to arrange direct talks with Saakashvili.


Former son-in-law of President Nazarbayev, Rakhat Aliev, sentenced in absentia 15 Jan to 20 years on multiple charges, including corruption and kidnapping. Trial of 15 on terrorism charges began Shymkent 16 Jan.


Parliament  approved  new  coalition  government 9 Jan led by PM Thaci (Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK); reappointed President Sejdiu (Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK): PDK senior partner to LDK. Government still not fully formed month-end. Media speculation grew regarding date of independence declaration. Following visit to Brussels, Thaci said declaration “matter of days” 24 Jan, but indicated longer time frame 31 Jan, saying constitution, state symbols to be ready for first day of independence. Public debate on constitution initiated, draft not yet published. U.S., UK, France, Germany said would recognise quickly, but first await 3 Feb Serbian presidential election; Spain urged delay until 9 Mar Spanish election. EU still seeking decision mechanism to deploy 1,800-strong mission for post-UNMIK period; Serbia, Russia again claimed deployment illegal without UNSC endorsement. UNSC met 16 Jan to discuss UNMIK; UNSG Ban Ki-moon “noted” EU willingness to deploy mission. UNMIK deployed extra police into Serb-dominated north 31 Jan.


New parliament sworn in 10 Jan following controversial 16 Dec elections marred by alleged vote- rigging. Supreme Court rejected election challenge by opposition Ata Meken 3 Jan. Opposition continued to protest results. “For Justice” movement – new coalition of over 30 groups, including Ata Meken and Ar-Namys parties – formed 14 Jan; said “People’s Parliament” to be established in Feb. Leader of opposition Asaba party Azimbek Beknazarov announced formation of “revolutionary body” to coordinate protest campaigns and force President Bakiyev’s resignation. Ar-Namys party asked to vacate offices 18 Jan; claimed move “politically motivated”. Prosecutor-General Elmurza Satbaldiev declared restrictions on public demonstrations to be upheld, sparking rallies in Bishkek 24 Jan. Officials said 9 Jan radioactive substances seized from train travelling to Iran from Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz police arrested alleged Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan-linked militant Abdulkhai Yuldashev, accused of involvement in 2006 border attacks.


President Vladimir Voronin called for “strategic partnership” with Russia during 22 Jan visit to Moscow. 2 Romanian priests banned from entry to Moldova, 2 others face expulsion.

North Macedonia

Macedonia proposed mutual friendship declaration with Greece after fresh talks on name issue began 21 Jan. NATO Secretary-General de Hoop Scheffer 23 Jan said further internal reforms required to gain NATO membership. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said EU membership talks start date to be agreed 2008; benchmarks for priority reforms to be set March. Deputy Interior Minister Refet Elmazi resigned for “personal reasons”.

Russia (Internal)

Police cracked down on anti-government rally in Nazran 25 Jan: journalists and NGO workers allegedly beaten and over 50 briefly detained. Further protest planned for 23 Feb. Violence in Dagestan continued: 10 rebels killed in Russian special forces operations in 8-14 Jan; 3 others reportedly killed in clash with security forces 24 Jan. In Ingushetia, gunmen killed 1 soldier, wounded 3 in attack on minibus. Interior Ministry official Movsar Martazanov shot dead in Karabulak 16 Jan.


Serbian Radical Party (SRS) candidate Tomislav Nikolic ahead of incumbent Boris Tadic (Democratic Party, DS) in presidential race with 39.99% to Tadic’s 35.39% in first round vote held 20 Jan. 61% turnout unusually high. Second round set for 3 Feb. PM Vojislav Kostunica said 26 Jan Serbia would nullify any Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) if EU approved Kosovo mission; Tadic responded Kosovo and SAA unconnected. EU FMs meeting 28 Jan resolved to offer interim political pact to be signed 7 Feb, relaxing visa requirements and increasing trade, educational cooperation. Netherlands opposed signing full SAA before handover of war crimes fugitives to ICTY. Belgrade approved action plan to “protect Serbia’s sovereignty” in event of Kosovo independence 14 Jan. FM Vuk Jeremic warned same day Kosovo could be partitioned. But officials backtracked from threats of chaos and embargo, suggesting extension of “parallel” municipal authorities. Belgrade signed agreement with Russia 22 Jan to sell state-owned oil industry to Gazprom and construct portion of South Stream pipeline.