CrisisWatch is our early warning and global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.
Northern Ireland (UK)
Talks between government and Palipehutu-FNL to resume early June on implementing September 2006 ceasefire agreement. Palipehutu-FNL leaders condition participation in talks on recognition as political party and their allocation of positions within government, parliament and army. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour called for strengthened judiciary in visit to Bujumbura 18-23 May. Government agreed in principle to transitional justice mechanisms for crimes during 12-year civil war: no amnesty for war crimes, genocide, crimes against humanity and other serious violations; national consultations to follow. Donors pledged $665 million to 3-year economic recovery plan 25 May.
Rival Oku and Mbessa villages in north west clashed over farm land 5 May; 5 killed, 60 homes destroyed.
Reports of continued clashes in north west between government forces, APRD rebels and bandits. Civilians regularly attacked and 2 aid workers abducted near Bozoum 19 May, released 27 May. UFDR rebels in north east agreed with UNICEF to release up to 400 child soldiers. ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced investigation into rapes and other violations during 2002-03 conflict between regime of former President Ange- Félix Patassé and former Army Chief of Staff François Bozizé.
President Idriss Deby and Sudan’s President Omar al- Bashir signed reconciliation agreement at 3 May summit hosted by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah. Agreement to stabilise Darfur and neighbouring region in Chad sees formation of joint border force, deployment of observers and cooperation with AU and UN. Observers doubt sincerity as each side continues to support proxy militias to destabilise the other, though N’djamena asked Darfur rebels to leave capital. Chad reiterated refusal of foreign peacekeeping force on eastern border because it fears neighbours may see foreign troops as threat. Government lifted state of emergency 25 May despite continuing violence in east.
Congolese armed forces FARDC fought Rwandan FDLR rebels in Kivu, killing 40. Reprisal attacks by rebels on civilian populations 26-27 May killed at least 22. Insurgent Gen. Laurent Nkunda threatened to pull his troops from army units leading to increased tensions in North Kivu. In Ituri 223 fighters of Peter Karim’s FNI militia joined disarmament program north west of Bunia. Independent candidate Kengo wa Dondo, former PM of Mobutu, elected President of Senate, beating President Kabila’s candidate.
Dismantling of militias, central measure of 4 March Ouagadougou accord, started 19 May after delays. Integration of military and census-taking for new elections yet to begin. Obstacles include budget constraints for retraining former fighters. President Laurent Gbagbo and PM Guillaume Soro publicly denied rumours of secret “deal”: their quick rapprochement has caused turmoil in G7 opposition alliance with Soro’s Forces Nouvelles accused by G7 of betraying their cause and siding with Gbagbo to secure political interests.
Violence reportedly escalated in Ogaden region as Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) claimed they killed up to 157 Ethiopian troops in joint attacks in east throughout month; denied by government. At least 16 killed in 2 grenade attacks in Ogaden 28 May: ONLF denied government accusation they were responsible. 3 New York Times journalists held for 5 days in Ogaden region, released 21 May.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki called border security zone, which his troops occupy, “meaningless”, and blamed U.S. for 5-year border stalemate in 24 May independence-day speech.
Agreement reached between government and political parties to postpone legislative elections until year-end. Investigation into January/February army attacks on civilians cited 137 deaths – more than previously reported. Parliament voted to set up year-long commission to further investigate killings. Soldiers protested non-payment of salary corrupt high- ranking officials in several towns leaving 10 dead 2-15 May. President Lansana Conté dismissed defence minister, army chief of staff and 6 top officers in response. Army chief replaced by retired officer perceived as close associate of former army high-ranking officials. Violence subsided following meeting between Conté and soldiers 15 May. New Defence Minister General Mamadou Bailo Diallo pledged not to prosecute soldiers; talks started to determine pay settlement.
Diamond mining relaunched 1 May after 6-year UN ban lifted in April. Major donors, including IMF, threatened to withdraw support if Financial Autonomy Act passed by legislature to grant the House and Senate right to administer own budget is made law.
Tuareg rebels led by insurgent chief Ibrahima Bahanga killed 2 military police in attack near Tinzaouatene in north east 11 May, first such raid since June 2006 peace deal. Attack possibly related to leadership quarrel among rebels in newly formed Democratic Alliance for Change ahead of 1st and 22nd July legislative elections. President Amadou Toumani Touré re-elected for second term with 70% in 29 April election. Coalition of opposition parties finally recognized Touré’s victory after Constitutional Court rejected fraud complaints. Observers reported overall fair and clean vote despite isolated incidents of concern.
Parliament approved over $60 million in extra funds to help confront northern Tuareg rebels threatening uranium mining and oil exploration. New Tuareg rebel group, Mouvement des Nigeriens pour la Justice, claimed responsibility for recent violence as response to neglect of northern region by Niamey.
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua inaugurated president 29 May after month of moderate protests over badly flawed April elections. Civil society groups called for national unity conference and re-run of elections within 18 months. Government warned disruption of 29 May ceremonies for new administration would be treated as “coup attempt”. 7 opposition candidates filed separate petitions with Court of Appeal in Abuja, seeking annulment of results. Most major powers embraced new president despite conclusion by international observers elections not credible: German G8 presidency invited Yar’Adua to June summit with 5 other African leaders. Election of Goodluck Jonathan (an Ijaw from Bayelsa State in Niger Delta) as Vice-President did not dissuade Delta militants: attacks on oil pipelines and kidnappings of foreign workers and some Nigerians worsened; Jonathan’s house attacked with explosives 16 May, 3 policemen killed. 10 killed in violent local council elections in Oyo state 24 May; 15 in gang violence linked to governor change in Rivers State 29 May.
April peace agreement between former rebel group Conseil National de Résistance (CNR) and government potentially destabilised as CNR criticised government’s decision to change post offered to leader Frédéric Bintsangou. President Nguesso stated CNR must disarm its militia and hand in weapons before it could be considered genuine political organisation.
President Paul Kagame stated intention to work with DR Congo to solve continued problem of FDLR rebels. FDLR clashed with DRC forces in North Kivu early May (see DRC above).
Sporadic clashes erupted between rival factions of Movement of Casamance Democratic Forces in Sindian area north east of Ziguinchor. Campaigning began 13 May for 3 June legislative election; opposition groups pledged boycott over President Wade’s refusal to change electoral process. Senegal Sporadic clashes erupted between rival factions of Movement of Casamance Democratic Forces in Sindian area north east of Ziguinchor. Campaigning began 13 May for 3 June legislative election; opposition groups pledged boycott over President Wade’s refusal to change electoral process.
UN’s chief humanitarian officer, John Holmes, called Somali humanitarian and refugee crisis worst in world. Up to 400,000 displaced by fighting between ousted Islamists and clan militias against Ethiopian troops and Transitional Federal Government forces. Some displaced reportedly returning to Mogadishu. UN food aid temporarily halted after ship attacked by pirates 19 May. PM Ali Mohammed Ghedi escaped unhurt after his convoy targeted by bomb in Mogadishu 17 May. U.S. and AU urged Ethiopia to keep forces in Somalia until full deployment of AU peacekeepers: Ethiopia and Uganda called for full deployment of AMISOM as pledged troops from Burundi, Ghana and Nigeria yet to arrive. 4 Ugandan peacekeepers killed by roadside bomb 16 May marking first targeted attack of peacekeepers. Ethiopian troops killed 5 civilians in aftermath of roadside bomb attack on army convoy in western town of Belet Weyne 30 May. National Reconciliation Congress to begin in Mogadishu 14 June amid concern over independence of organising committee and participant selection.
President Dahir Rayale Kahin ruled out union with Somalia and welcomed Swedish recognition of Somaliland as “self-governing area” on development issues.
U.S. President Bush imposed largely symbolic new unilateral economic sanctions on Sudan 29 May and sought support for international arms embargo in response to Khartoum’s refusal to end conflict in Darfur. UN and AU drafted plans for 23,000-strong hybrid force to be approved by UNSC and AU Peace and Security Committee. SPLM initiative to unite Darfur rebel groups given support by UN and AU envoys Jan Eliasson and Salim Ahmed Salim 10 May. Office of UN High Commission for Human Rights reported Sudanese security forces killed more than 100 in indiscriminate attacks on villages in south Darfur January-March. Eastern rebels finally agreed on list of 3 candidates for government posts to allow delayed October 2006 peace plan to go forward. Key national census, set for November, may be postponed to January/February 2008. NCP and SPLM engaged in high-level meetings on status of 2005 CPA implementation and their political partnership; Abyei and oil issues remain unresolved.
Talks between government and LRA in Southern Sudanese capital of Juba resulted in 2 May agreement on comprehensive solutions to the conflict, second of 5 issues on agenda. Talks resumed 31 May to tackle contentious issue of accountability and reconciliation: government reportedly seeks LRA acknowledgement it committed atrocities and is willing to undergo traditional reconciliation ceremonies, while LRA wants ICC indictments of 4 leaders including Joseph Kony and Vincent Otti dropped before it will sign comprehensive agreement. While calm prevails in northern Uganda, LRA continues to target civilians in South Sudan, and have not assembled at Ri-Kwangba, along Sudan/DRC border, as required by revised cessation of hostilities agreement. UN WFP convoy attacked in north eastern Karamoja region 30 May leading to temporary suspension of food aid.
First signs of movement for South African-led SADC mediation initiative after Pretoria arranged mid-month meeting between representatives of ZANU-PF and both factions of opposition MDC. Meetings scheduled early June to cement framework for further talks. Earlier visit by South African aides to Harare had secured President Mugabe’s grudging acceptance of initiative. Harassment of opposition continued with new wave of mass arrests 25 May, while power severely rationed in much of country to 4 hours/day. 1800 Zimbabweans living illegally in South Africa deported mid-month.
Taliban military commander Mullah Dadullah killed 13 May in Kandahar after reportedly arriving from Pakistan: highest-ranking Talib to be killed since 2001. 3 bombs in Kandahar followed killing, 1 targeting governor. Border clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces killed over 12 mid-month; Kabul protested to UN over Pakistani incursions. In response to further 21 civilian deaths reported during U.S. airstrikes 9 May in Helmand, parliamentary upper house passed motion calling for negotiation with Taliban and withdrawal date for foreign forces; resolution unlikely to pass. UN said 380 civilians dead in first 4 months of year; U.S. maintained toll lower than Afghan authorities insist. Attack on German soldiers in Kunduz 19 May killing 3 Germans, 7 Afghans raised concern over potential German withdrawal. Possibility of further instability in north highlighted by clashes in Shiberghan 29 May that killed 8 after protests by supporters of Uzbek warlord Dostum.
Awami League (AL) head Sheikh Hasina returned to Dhaka from London 7 May after caretaker government’s efforts to exile her failed. Former PM and BNP President Khaleda Zia also resisted pressure to leave country. Ban on all political activity remains in place. Crackdown on corruption continued with arrests of senior politicians, including AL secretary general and BNP figures such as former interior minister Altaf Hossain Chowdhury. Government asked for army’s help in cleaning up voter registration list, with reported 12 million duplicate or fake names, ahead of elections now pledged by end 2008, but Election Commission still unclear on process. 2006 Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus dropped plans to form new political party, citing poor public response. Army chief insisted that army not interested in involvement in politics and had already withdrawn from many local bases established in January emergency.
State of emergency lifted 31 May 2007, in keeping with EU aid conditions. Finance minister said elections due June 2010; date that fails to satisfy March 2009 EU roadmap deadline. Continued reports of harassment of members of pre- coup administration.
Violence spiked again in Assam state, as suspected United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) rebels launched further attacks, including series of market bombings, and ethnic clashes broke out in east. Bombing by Maoists in Chhattisgarh killed 10 policemen 29 May.
Talks in Islamabad 17-18 May on Sir Creek boundary dispute failed to produce any agreement after exchange of survey maps. General strike observed 21 May in Indian Kashmir to mark anniversary of killings of 2 separatist leaders. Several separatists and Indian troops killed in clashes along Line of Control.
Rise in violent incidents in Aceh continued, including armed robberies and grenade attacks. Tensions with Jakarta grew over disagreements over province’s share in oil and gas revenues.
No movement by Pyongyang on February pledge to shut Yongbyon reactor. 6-party talks on hold as difficulties in unfreezing Banco Delta Asia funds continued. After test run of cross-border rail links saw first trains to cross border region in over 50 years, end-month Seoul-Pyongyang bilateral talks ended without agreement as Seoul withheld dispatch of 400,000-tonne food aid. North Korea fired shortrange missiles into East Sea 25 May in “annual military exercise”.
Ruling junta signed deal with Russia to build small nuclear research reactor. Peace talks between Shan State Army and government 22 May failed to produce any concrete statement. Despite pressure from ASEAN, EU, U.S. and UNHCHR, Myanmar renewed detention order on democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi for another year 26 May. U.S. earlier renewed sanctions, accusing regime of becoming “more brutal”.
Tensions continued in south as moderate Madhesi activists came closer to talks with government but fringe groups stepped up violent campaign and major parties resisted concessions. Government agreed to pay salary to former rebel fighters, one of conditions Maoists set before allowing UN verification of combatants to proceed. Maoists vowed to return seized land and property but yet to do so; affiliated Young Communist League also promised better behaviour but continued illegal activities. Madhesi parliamentarians continued to block business. Maoists maintained pressure for immediate declaration of republic; Nepali Congress student wing elected pro-republican president, adding to pressure on leadership to adopt anti-monarchy line. Constituent assembly polls postponed to late November.
Instability and violence intensified as President Musharraf’s crisis deepened. Supporters of suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Hussain Chaudhry continued protest against Musharraf’s rule, including 6 May procession from Islamabad to Lahore by tens of thousands. Over 40 killed in street violence 12 May after members of Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party, Musharraf’s local coalition partner, attacked opposition supporters of Chief Justice. Police failed to intervene and government refused enquiry. Hearing on Chaudhry’s suspension referred to Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), but hearing delayed until Supreme Court rules on SJC’s competence in matter. Musharraf ruled out return of former PMs Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif before end-year elections. Bhutto and Sharif insist they will return. Over 25 killed in 15 May suicide bombing in Peshawar hotel; 10 in 29 May car bombing outside courthouse. Border clashes in Paktia province involving Pakistani and Afghan forces led to deaths of over 12 Afghans, as well as 1 U.S. and 1 Pakistani soldier killed by suspected local militia. Clashes followed NATO meeting on easing border tensions.
National legislative elections 14 May marred by fraud allegations and violence, though number of incidents lower than in 2004. 114 killed in poll-related violence since January. Polling postponed until 26 May in Lanao del Sur province after persistent armed clashes obstructed voting, while “mass fraud” under investigation in neighbouring Maguindanao. Jailed MNLF leader Nur Misuari lost bid for Sulu governorship. 8 militants with links to Abu Sayyaf surrendered in Manila; government alleged group was planning new Manila bomb attacks.
Fighting continued in north and east - dozens killed, primarily in continued government assault on rebel positions. LTTE rebels attacked naval base on Jaffna peninsula 24 May, killing at least 10 sailors. Maldives military sank Indian vessel reportedly hijacked by LTTE and took 5 prisoners south of Maldives archipelago 17 May in first direct involvement in conflict. LTTE suspected of 24 and 28 May bomb attacks in Colombo killing 9. Sri Lankan air force reportedly ordered 5 Russian Mig 29 fighter jets to combat new air threat from LTTE; Colombo’s civilian airport announced suspension of all further night flights. ICRC announced pullback 23 May from front line in Vavuniya district, citing increased safety concerns for staff. UK declared will withhold half of promised debt relief until human rights and military spending concerns are addressed; U.S. also suspended some aid and urged Colombo to control paramilitaries.
U.S. urged Taipei to pass long-stalled defence spending bill allowing it to purchase U.S. missiles. Mainland China and Taiwan each held high-profile simulations of cross-strait attack.
Violence continued in the south with continued militant attacks on civilians, police and military forces. Mass protest by Muslim villagers over martial law detentions shut down Betong-Yala road for over a week from 3 May; Buddhist residents held 3-day counter-protest 6 May. Anti- government protests continued in Bangkok, where 3 radio stations broadcast messages by deposed PM Thaksin; 1 subsequently shut down. Constitutional Tribunal announced verdicts on electoral malfeasance cases 30 May: Democrat Party acquitted, 2 members of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party found guilty. TRT dissolved and all 111 party executives banned from politics for 5 years. 200 TRT supporters protested on night of decision, 3,000 next day. Draft constitution still under discussion by cabinet ahead of national referendum scheduled for September.
Jose Ramos-Horta scored landslide victory in 9 May second round presidential elections with 69%; sworn in 20 May. Fretilin candidate “Lu-Olo” Guterres conceded defeat and encouraged supporters to accept results. Campaign period relatively peaceful, elections pronounced generally free and fair, but accusations of electoral fraud, voter intimidation and vote-buying persisted. 14 parties to contest 30 June parliamentary election, although only 4 expected to win seats: Fretilin, CNRT (headed by Xanana Gusmao), PD, and ASDT/PSD coalition. Clashes between CNRT and Fretilin supporters reported 31 May. Court of Appeal upheld 7 and half year sentence against former interior minister, Rogerio Lobato, for arming civilians in 2006 violence.
Preliminary hearings held in sedition trial of 5 pro- democracy activists involved in November riots, as state of emergency extended for sixth month.
President Moisiu urged governing and opposition parties to focus on reform and seek consensus over presidential selection; current term ends 24 July.
Ruling Republican Party won 64 seats of 131 in 12 May parliamentary elections. Pro-presidential parties, Prosperous Armenia and Armenian Revolutionary Federation, won 24 and 15 seats; opposition parties, Rule of Law and Inheritance, 10 and 7. Alliance Party and 9 independent MPs also won seats. OSCE observers said elections “clear improvement” despite shortcomings. Opposition complained of pre-poll intimidation including 7 May arrest of campaigner.
Pressure on independent media intensified. Editor-in-chief and journalist of weekly Sanat sentenced 3-4 years on charges of inciting ethnic, racial and religious hatred for article allegedly critical of Islam 4 May. Editor and reporter of opposition Mukhalifat sentenced 2.5 years for libel on charges pressed by Jalal Aliyev, President Aliyev’s uncle, 16 May; activists said case attempt to silence exposure of corruption cases. Office of largest opposition dailies, Gundelik and Realny Azerbaijan, closed by authorities citing “lack of safety mechanisms” 20 May. Authorities said would no longer cooperate with Reporters Without Borders, saying organisation biased. EU and OSCE condemned deteriorating media situation.
27 May local elections saw moderate Basque Nationalist Party retain dominance in municipalities; pro-Basque Naforra Bai party came second in regional poll in neighbouring Navarre. Run up saw low-level violence and protests against exclusion of many Basque nationalist lists. Constitutional Court confirmed Supreme Court bar of 246 Basque Nationalist Socialist and 133 Basque National Action candidates as continuation of banned Batasuna Party. Bilbao rally protested decision 12 May. Home-made car-bomb targeting local socialist party candidate Jose Antonio Elola failed to detonate in Zarautz 24 May. ETA member Jon Bienzobas sentenced to 30 years for 1996 assassination of former head of Constitutional Court Francisco Tomás y Valiente. Government denied media reports diplomats had met ETA members in April.
Opposition coalition, Political Council of United Pro- democratic Forces, voted out leader Alexander Milinkevich; 4 co-leaders to serve on rotating basis. 2 opposition activists serving 3-year sentences for organising 2005 mass protests released early 22 May, for good behaviour. Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad, on 21-22 May visit, granted Belarus Iranian oil reserve access; President Lukashenko said signalled “strategic partnership”. Belarus denied seat on UN Human Rights Council; outvoted in favour of Bosnia & Herzegovina 18 May.
Slovak diplomat Miroslav Lajcak to succeed Christian Schwarz-Schilling as High Representative from 1 July. Lajcak’s announcement would use “Bonn Powers” to govern BiH challenged by Republika Srpska PM Dodik. BiH Presidency member Silajdzic and Dodik visited U.S. to discuss constitutional reform but no major progress achieved.
3 police and 3 suspected militants killed in 6 May clash in southern Vedeno district.
Ankara rejected claims Turkey blocking plans to enhance EU-NATO cooperation in Kosovo but insisted on exclusion of Republic of Cyprus from future Kosovo police mission.
President Saakashvili appointed alternative de facto South Ossetian leader Dmitri Sanakoev as head of recently created temporary administrative unit for region 10 May. Deterioration of security situation followed: heavy military equipment observed in conflict zone; de facto police held OSCE and Joint Peacekeeping Forces officers at gunpoint 7 May and closed access roads between de facto-administered and Georgian-administered areas. Shelling occurred between Georgian and Ossetian positions north and south of Tskhinvali. De facto leader Eduard Kokoity said Tskhinvali would consider withdrawing from peace process if Tbilisi continued to undermine negotiating format by promoting “puppet government”. Russia also criticised promotion as potentially destabilising. Abkhaz de facto authorities released 3 Georgian students arrested March. In exchange, Abkhaz officials demanded Georgia free ethnic Georgian de facto official David Sigua in Gali district missing, feared dead, since February. Former MP and leader of Language Motherland Faith movement Guram Sharadze shot dead in Tbilisi 20 May; suspect detained but motive unknown. Ombudsman Subari delivered critical human rights report to Parliament 25 May after earlier recommendation senior Ministry of Internal Affairs official be suspended; Opposition welcomed findings; ruling National Movement dismissive.
International community remained divided over UNSC resolution on final status; Russia rejected U.S.- and EU-backed draft resolution, insisting status decision must be acceptable to Belgrade. U.S. Sec. State Rice’s mid-May visit to Moscow and 18-19 May EU-Russia summit failed to resolve differences. NATO warned further delay on status could trigger violence in province. Serbian police arrested nationalists in Krusevac protesting against possible Kosovo independence 5 May.
Official medical report supported PM Atambayev’s claim poisoned after receiving death threats over nationalisation of industrial plant. Atambayev’s motorcade attacked by stone-throwing crowd after visits to 2 disputed gold mines in Talas province, several arrested. Parliament called on government to end agreement with U.S. to use Manas air base as controversy continued over December 2006 killing of Kyrgyz civilian by base guard. Explosion in newspaper offices in Osh 30 May investigated by police.
President Voronin met Russian national security council deputy leader Zubakov 23 May to discuss reopening talks on Transdniestria. EU hosted talks on fresh negotiations 25 May, Talks reported to resume June. Moscow denied April leaked document allegation that it had presented planned bilateral settlement. De facto Transdniestrian MP Emelyanov shot dead 27 May in unclear circumstances.
Minsk Group Co- chairmen held separate consultations with Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs 11 May, focusing on Yerevan and Baku’s responses to group’s latest proposals on outstanding differences. Russian co-chair Merzlyakov said meetings “productive”. Presidents Kocharian and Aliyev to meet at 10 June CIS summit in St Petersburg. Azerbaijani soldier reportedly killed by NK forces sniper near Agdam region 11 May.
Ethnic Albanian Party for Democratic Prosperity joined ruling coalition 20 May. Main ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration ended parliament boycott 29 May.
Devolved power-sharing government resumed under leadership of First Minister Ian Paisley (DUP) and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein) 8 May. Paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) declared 3 May renouncing violence and ceasing to exist as a terrorist organisation. Arms decommissioning body said UVF pledge to keep weapons “beyond reach” did not meet legal requirements; urged weapon destruction. 3 Sinn Fein representatives took seats on Policing Board.
Violence in Dagestan continued: at least 3 militants reported dead in police raid 12 May; railroad official survived car-bomb 14 May; 2 bystanders killed by police chasing suspect 21 May.