CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standby monitoring") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Prospects for peace between government and FNL rebels uncertain despite mid-June provisional agreement to end hostilities. Negotiations on permanent ceasefire, due to be concluded 1 July, faltered amidst FNL claims facilitating countries (S. Africa, Tanzania, Uganda) threatened military action if failed to sign. EU called for probe into allegations of graft in aid program, threatening to withdraw financial support. UN Security Council extended ONUB to end of 2006.
Situation remained bleak in lawless northwest with armed gangs killing dozens in village raids. Chad rebels launched cross-border raid; clashes with CAR troops and African peacekeepers killed over 40.
Relations with Sudan worsened while insecurity along border increased. Government forces and Chadian FUCD rebels renewed fighting. Janjaweed continued attacks on border towns and Sudanese SLA rebels continued to infiltrate refugee camps to forcibly recruit civilians, causing 10,000 to flee to Darfur within month. President Déby accused Sudan of exporting war and called for greater international support. Déby announced “internal political dialogue” with opposition after temporary civil servant strike. Unidentified rebels launched raid into northeast Central African Republic, clashing with CAR forces and peacekeepers; reports suggest Chadian and northern CAR rebels formed alliance.
Slow progress made toward October elections and crucial disarmament process delayed. Pro-government militias in west failed to hand over weapons, citing security concerns, while integration talks between government and ex-rebel forces stalled. UN Security Council increased strength of UN peacekeeping mission by 1,500: half the figure UNSG Annan had requested to ensure stability before polls.
Situation remained tenuous as country struggled to prepare for 30 July elections. Several major political parties continued to demand negotiations to ensure free and fair process. Official campaigning began 30 June, amid warnings from UN Security Council delegation over dangerous nationalist rhetoric. First day of campaign marred by unrest: 12 killed when police opened fire on anti-government protest in Matadi. 800 EU soldiers with UNSC mandate began deployment to Kinshasa, expected fully operational by 29 July; 1,200 troops to stand by in Gabon. UNSC extended MONUC mandate to end September. Clashes between soldiers, peacekeepers and militias persisted in Ituri, where estimated 4,000 remaining militiamen given new 30 June disarmament deadline. Ethnic Lendu militia threatened to kill 7 Nepalese peacekeepers taken hostage in May, but 2 released 27 June.
Ethnic conflict in south escalated as 100 reported killed in land clashes between Guji and Borena groups and up to 90,000 displaced. Regional mediators sought to resolve separate inter-clan dispute that killed 39 in Daroor.
Blow to border dispute resolution as Eritrea refused to attend Boundary Commission meeting in The Hague 15 June, citing Ethiopia’s failure to implement 2002 agreement. 111 Ethiopian People’s Patriotic Front rebels, allegedly from Eritrea, reported killed by Ethiopian forces; Asmara denied reports. UN report found Eritrea providing military support for Somali-based insurgents attacking Ethiopia and for groups linked to Somali Islamic Courts militia.
Country crippled after leading unions called “indefinite” general strike 8 June; crisis ended 9 days later when government agreed to pay raise for workers. Strike led to clashes 12 June between students and security forces, killing 11 in 3 cities and prompting military patrols in capital.
Positive signs of stabilisation continued. UN Security Council lifted timber but maintained diamond sanctions, acknowledging increased fiscal control over resource industries but seeking further reforms; also partially lifted arms embargo to equip new national police and security forces. Truth and Reconciliation Commission began to investigate human rights violations in 14-year civil war 22 June.
Government announced peace deal with Tuareg rebels 30 June following Algerian-brokered talks between rebels and government. Rebels reportedly dropped demands for greater autonomy for northeast in exchange for poverty reduction; signing expected early July.
President Obasanjo agreed to withdraw troops from Bakassi peninsula within 90 days, ceding disputed region to Cameroon after talks brokered by UNSG Annan; sections of Nigerian majority in peninsula threatened violent resistance. Kidnappings of foreign workers by MEND rebels continued in Niger Delta region but all later released: 5 Nigerian soldiers died in kidnapping raid. Military deployed to Onitsha after clashes between police and Biafran separatist group killed 8; soldiers later killed 2, arrested 69. Ruling PDP party argued over successor to Obasanjo in April 2007 elections; police sealed party offices, and Obasanjo fired 8 aides of rival VP Abubakar.
Former Justice Minister Ntamabyariro became most senior official charged with genocide in Rwandan courts 19 June. UN tribunal asked for international assistance tracking down genocide suspects still at large abroad, ahead of 2008 tribunal deadline.
Fighting intensified in Casamance region along border with Gambia between rival factions of Movement of the Democratic Forces of Casamance; 100 rebels reported killed.
Former Liberian President Taylor transferred to The Hague to face war crimes charges before Sierra Leone Special Court, after UK agreed 15 June to house him if convicted. Political parties began campaigning for 2007 polls; opposition leader Margai stoned by supporters of ruling SLPP party in visit to Kono. New UN peacebuilding commission announced redevelopment as working group subject.
Islamic Courts militia seized control over Mogadishu 8 June, driving out U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism; later consolidated control over most of south. Talks in Khartoum between Courts and transitional government led to mutual recognition and de facto ceasefire 22 June. But choice of radical cleric Hassan Dahir Aweys to head new Consultative Council of Islamic Courts may prove explosive and derail further talks. U.S. ruled out direct relations with Aweys and highlighted fears country could become radical Islamist training ground. IGAD and AU pressed ahead with plans for peace support mission over strong objections of Courts militia, while Courts claimed Ethiopian military incursion as Ethiopia consolidated border presence.
President Royale toured 5 East African countries to campaign for AU membership in wider pursuit of international recognition.
Implementation of Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) faltered as rebel divisions widened. Members of SLA Minawi faction announced suspension of DPA implementation, suggesting tacit split with Minawi ahead of his delegation’s visit to Khartoum for talks. Violent clashes between SLA factions further hindered Darfur humanitarian access. Joint commission inaugurated to monitor DPA ceasefire, but no action taken. President Bashir continued to refuse “colonial” UN Darfur peacekeeping mission, suggested alternate Sudanese force. UNSG Annan to press matter at AU Summit 1 July, but other UN official said no force feasible before January 2007. ICC lead prosecutor announced compilation of “Darfur crimes database”, said will prosecute “large-scale atrocities”; Sudan claimed ICC has no jurisdiction. South Sudan President Machar continued to arrange peace talks between Uganda and LRA rebels, as alleged LRA attack on Juba killed 9. In east, Khartoum signed ceasefire pact 19 June and agreed to July talks with Eastern Front rebels demanding greater autonomy.
Government delayed entering into talks with LRA rebels brokered by South Sudan’s government in Juba, saying 14-man LRA delegation lacked capacity for serious negotiations. ICC insisted peace efforts should not impede arrest and prosecution of indicted rebel leaders, while South Sudan VP Machar said ICC should give peace process chance before any legal proceedings. Government ruled out direct negotiations with indicted rebels in line with ICC position, despite President Museveni’s May statement guaranteeing LRA chief Kony’s safety if he surrendered. First televised interview with Kony aired on BBC. Dozen LRA fighters killed in separate clashes with Ugandan and South Sudanese forces.
Main opposition MDC faction leader Tsvangirai unveiled “roadmap” 9 June, calling for President Mugabe to accept new constitution, resign and allow transitional government to organise elections under international supervision, or face “mass action”. Mugabe repeated threat of crackdown on protests. Former ruling ZANU-PF member Daniel Shumba officially launched new opposition United People’s Party. Economic crisis with massive inflation continued.
Civilian, military and insurgent casualties continued to rise steeply amid intense fighting. U.S.-led coalition and Afghan forces launched Operation Mountain Thrust 15 June aimed at extending government control to south and east: over 60 suspected Taliban fighters reported killed. President Karzai criticised for appointment of police officers with history of corruption and brutality and ordering 2 former governors in south to rearm their illegal militias. Commander of NATO-led security force pledged new tactic of “people-friendly force” to take effect when NATO assumes control from U.S. in July. NATO reportedly to increase troops from 9,000 to 17,000 by end July. Taliban claimed responsibility for explosion of vehicle carrying workers to coalition base in Kandahar, which killed 10. 2 attempted car bomb attacks targetted U.S. forces during U.S. Sec. State Rice’s visit 28 June.
Clashes between police and protestors broke out during 13-14 June strike called by 14-party alliance led by Awami League (AL). Opposition demanded electoral reforms including removal of allegedly biased election commissioner and participation of AL in caretaker administration due to govern from October until January 2007 elections. Police later battled demonstrators trying to march to election commission offices in several towns. UN electoral assistance mission “deeply troubled” by high level of political violence.
Closed trial of New York Times researcher Zhao Yan, accused of leaking state secrets, ended in Beijing 16 June; verdict delayed until 25 July.
Plans to cut army from 3,000 to 1,700 rejected by home ministry after concern from military leaders. Commonwealth election observers accused military of having attempted to influence result of May election.
Government held separate talks with representatives of 2 northeastern separatist groups, ULFA and NSCN-IM, 22 June. New Delhi said would consider releasing 5 ULFA leaders in goodwill move that would pave way for further talks. Series of attacks in northeast in run-up to talks killed 10: ULFA denied responsibility. Government and NSCN-IM held “fruitful” talks in Netherlands 22 June. Maoist violence continued: 7 villagers killed 20 June in Chhattisgarh; 6 Maoists killed in 28 June police raid. In Andhra Pradesh, 6 Maoists killed including key leader, M. Ravikumar. Sectarian tensions continued in northern Uttar Pradesh: 2 killed 18 June in arson attack on Muslim homes in Pratapgarh after shooting of Hindu village leader.
Sporadic violence continued throughout Indian-controlled Kashmir. 8 militants reportedly killed attempting to cross into Indian controlled territory 30 June. Previously militants attacked villagers in Udhampur district, killing 1 and mutilating 2 on suspicion of being informers. 8 lndian labourers from Bihar shot dead by suspected militants in Anantnag district. All Parties Hurriyat Conference called protest against alleged desecration of Koran and mosque by Indian security forces: 2 killed in demonstrations. Second bus service began linking Indian and Pakistani controlled areas but mutual accusations over failed prisoner swap dampened optimism.
Radical cleric Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, former leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, released after serving 26 of 30-month sentence. Human rights groups raised concerns over enactment of district-level regulations inspired by Sharia law and which may discriminate against women. 56 MPs signed petition urging head of parliament to write to president requesting these be revoked, while 134 MPs signed counter- petition. EU unlikely to extend Aceh Monitoring Mission beyond September but will send election observers to monitor local polls, doubtful before November. Concerns in Aceh that draft Aceh government law, to be passed July, does not sufficiently reflect spirit or letter of August 2005 Helsinki peace accord.
U.S. intelligence suggesting NK preparing to test intercontinental ballistic missile caused widespread alarm and strong statements from Washington and Tokyo. U.S. announced it would deploy interceptor missiles in Japan. NK delegate to UN said North wants to negotiate directly with Washington: Pyongyang issued invitation to Assistant Sec. State Hill to visit, but offer quickly rebuffed. Japan’s House of Representatives passed bill allowing economic sanctions if NK fails to help resolve abductions dispute.
Army attacks on ethnic minority villages continued. Military junta postponed chairmanship of ASEAN regional bloc for second time after pressure from member countries. UN envoy Gambari reported government willing to engage with UN on “whole range of issues” following May visit. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, under extended house arrest, allowed previously denied visit by doctor. EU, Asian, U.S. and UN human rights rapporteurs paid homage to Suu Kyi at inaugural meeting of UN Human Rights Council.
Month saw some positive steps toward lasting peace but several fundamental problems still to be overcome. PM Koirala and Maoist chief Prachanda met 16 June. Koirala announced would dissolve parliament and form new interim government including Maoists. Mainstream parties signed 8- point agreement with Maoists reaffirming both sides’ commitment to multiparty democracy, arms supervision by UN and elections to constituent assembly. But process not yet clear and Prachanda reportedly retracted support for foreign supervision of arms. Harsh Maoist criticism of Nepalese Army also sparked controversy. Government scrapped contentious anti-terrorism laws and dropped cases against many detained Maoists; 190 rebels reportedly released. Parliament formally removed royal veto, reducing king to ceremonial monarch.
Violence in restive Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Balochistan province continued to intensify. Military raided suspected militant camp in North Waziristan 10 June, killing more than 30. Region experienced first suicide attack 2 June in Bakakhel, which claimed 5 soldiers; another killed 6 soldiers 26 June. Temporary ceasefire offer made month-end by tribal leaders in attempt to facilitate negotiations with military. In Balochistan, 5 militants reportedly killed in military raid on rebel camp in Dera Bugti district 11 June: Baloch regional party leader Nawab Akbar Bugti claimed 12 civilians also killed.
Government troops and MILF rebel group involved in fresh clashes on Mindanao, as peace talks remained stalled. Explosion at Maguindanao market 23 June killed 7 in suspected attack on local governor known for support of President Arroyo. MILF denied responsibility but National Police chief ordered arrest of 2 MILF commanders. Opposition parties filed impeachment claims against Arroyo, citing fraud in 2004 election and corruption. At least 25 killed in land dispute between tribesmen and Muslim clan in south.
PM Sogavare dismissed police, tourism and culture ministers after being criticised for having appointed them while they remain in detention for inciting April riots.
Violence continued to surge throughout north and east, risking escalation into full scale combat. Attacks included 15 June mine blast on bus carrying civilians in North Central Province, killing 64. Government blamed LTTE and launched retaliatory air strikes against rebel headquarters in Kilinochchi and positions in north and northeast. Catholic clergy blamed government forces for attack on church in Pesalai 17 June; 5 killed. LTTE suicide bomber killed third most senior army officer Major General Parami Kulathunge and 3 others 26 June. LTTE demanded removal of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission monitors from Sweden, Denmark and Finland by early September in reaction to EU placing LTTE on terror list in May, but agreed to protect monitors in north.
President Chen Shui-bian’s political difficulties continued but renewed sovereignty pledge - not to allow Taiwan to “become second Hong Kong”. Chen survived recall vote in parliament but over half of legislature voted against him (two-thirds majority needed to force referendum). James Soong of opposition People First Party vowed to pursue no-confidence vote against government (which would only require simple majority). Relations with China improved slightly as sides agreed to start cross-Strait flights during holidays.
Political uncertainty in Bangkok and southern violence continued. National Reconciliation Commission released report 5 June recommending shift from hard-line security response in south, and focus on justice and reconciliation through creation of 2 government agencies. As parliamentary debate began on report, 50 bombs exploded simultaneously at police stations, government offices and checkpoints in south, killing 3. Public prosecutors announced would submit petition to constitutional court charging 5 political parties, including governing Thai Rak Thai and opposition Democrat Party, with fraud in 2 April elections. Constitutional court decision to uphold fraud charges would dissolve political parties; decision in early July..
Political and security situation remained tense. PM Alkatiri resigned 26 June after mass demonstrations and President Gusmao threatened to resign if he stayed in office: sparked new violence in Dili. Foreign and Defence Minister Ramos-Horta resigned in objection to ruling Frelitin party support for Alkatiri but appeared ready to resume duties if asked. Former Interior Minister Lobato arrested for arming rebels; Alkatiri claimed immunity to avoid investigation. Rebels agreed to disarm; Australian troops began process 16 June. Australian government pushed for greater UN involvement but U.S. opposed deployment of UN peacekeepers to replace Australian-led contingent. UN appointed 3-member commission of inquiry to investigate April-May violence. UN mission extended until 20 August.
Stabilisation and Association Agreement signed with EU in Luxembourg 12 June.
Tigran Torosian elected new chair of Armenian parliament 1 June. Independent A1+ television company evicted from state-funded Academy of Sciences building and editor-in-chief of independent Zhamanak Yerevan newspaper arrested on charges of draft evasion, in what observers claim state campaign against independent media.
Second round of OSCE Minsk Group-mediated talks between Armenian and Azeri presidents in Bucharest failed to produce agreement on principles 4-5 June. Follow-up meeting between foreign ministers in Paris also failed. Minsk Group co-chairs said suspending intensive mediation efforts until sides demonstrate political will to overcome differences. Matthew Bryza replaced Steven Mann as American OSCE Minsk Group co-chair.
6 October 2006 date set for repeat local elections in 141 municipalities where results of December 2004 polls annulled. Decision came shortly after Council of Europe threatened Azerbaijan with exclusion from Congress of Local and Regional Authorities if re-runs not held by year-end. Police dispersed demonstration outside Iranian embassy 9 June, briefly detaining 10 activists protesting recent violence against Azeri minorities in Iran.
PM Zapatero announced government will start talks with ETA. Earlier, at least 200,000 people protested in Madrid against talk plans, and main opposition Popular Party broke off cooperation with government over what it called “surrender” to ETA and Basque nationalist party Batasuna. ETA couple sentenced to 50 years prison for pivotal 1997 murder of Basque conservative councillor Miguel Angel Blanco.
Government announced ban on officials from EU, U.S. and other countries that imposed visa ban on senior Belarus officials in May. U.S. extended sanctions on President Lukashenko and 9 officials, freezing U.S.-based assets and banning business links. Russia and Belarus held largest ever joint military exercise 17-25 June. At least 30 opposition protestors detained outside Russian embassy 16 June.
Contact Group announced plans to replace High Representative (HR) with EU-led mission June 2007. HR Schwarz-Schilling to continue as EU representative; move supported by Serbs, opposed by Bosniaks. Republika Srpska leadership opposed constitutional reform proposals of Council of Europe. Ethnic Croats and Muslims clashed in Mostar after Croatia World Cup match. Cabinet appointed 10 to new commission to investigate war crimes against Serbs and other groups in Sarajevo; PM Terzic’s refusal to form body had led to Serb boycott of parliament from May. Second round of EU Stabilisation and Association Agreement talks concluded 16 June; EU warned police reform delay could jeopardise talks.
Rebel leader Abdul-Khalim Sadulaev killed by pro-Moscow forces 17 June. Rebels named Doku Umarov new leader and notorious field commander Shamil Basayev as deputy. Exiled rebel foreign minister Akhmed Zakayev appealed for release of 4 Russian diplomats taken hostage in Iraq in later killed.
Turkish Cypriot property commission ruled on 3 of 16 cases brought by Greek Cypriots, reinstating their property in north in 2 cases and offering compensation in third. Rulings came day before deadline set by European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) for effective functioning of commission. ECHR to decide whether to transfer 1,400 claims to commission; Greek Cypriot government rejected process. UN Security Council extended UNFICYP peacekeeping mission until 15 December. Turkish PM Erdogan stated 16 June Turkey would not open ports and airports to Cyprus unless isolation of Turkish Cypriots ended; said prepared for suspension of EU membership talks. Earlier in month, Greek Cypriots threatened to block Turkish accession progress, but backed down after EU reminded Ankara of obligation to normalise relations with Greek Cypriot government. EU approved opening of office in July in north to distribute 139m euro aid package.
President Saakashvili met Russian President Putin before St. Petersburg G-8 summit amidst deteriorating relations; pledged to continue dialogue, but both later made accusatory statements on Georgia’s breakaway regions. On South Ossetia, international donors conference in Brussels raised €7.9 million to finance rehabilitation of conflict zone; Georgia pledged to match sum and Russia promised €3 million. Georgian minister of interior met with his de facto South Ossetian counterpart within Joint Control Commission for first time. On Abkhazia, UNSG’s Group of Friends on Georgia met with officials in Tbilisi and Sukhumi 23-25 May, welcoming resumption of Coordinating Council. First meetings of Council’s working groups on security and IDP postponed until July.